UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on July 25, 2026 features a live stylistic puzzle on the undercard: Thomas Petersen against Valter Walker. The market has Petersen out at +155 with Walker priced in as the -185 favorite across the books Bones tracks, a gap that reflects a real skill-set mismatch rather than a mismatch in danger. Petersen brings one-shot power from the southpaw stance; Walker brings a ground game built to end fights on the mat. Bones has run this matchup through its model and logged an informational lean on it — the full pick, including the side, is reserved for members. Here's the breakdown that gets you there.
Thomas Petersen
Petersen fights out of the southpaw stance and built his profile as a striker first, with knockout/TKO power standing as his most-used and most dangerous finishing tool. That's the core of his path to victory here: keep the fight standing, find the angle a southpaw gets on an orthodox opponent, and land the shot that changes everything in a single exchange. He doesn't need volume or a decision-friendly gameplan — live power means a live threat in every round, and it's the kind of equalizer that keeps him relevant as a live dog on the number. The swing question for his side of the fight is distance management: can he keep it a boxing match long enough for the power to matter, or does the fight get taken away from him before he gets to use it?
Valter Walker
Walker is priced as the clear favorite for a reason — his path runs through the grappling exchanges, closing distance and hunting for the finish on the mat, with leg-lock entries a signature part of that attack. The one blemish on his record worth noting: his lone loss came by clean decision, and he has never been finished, which speaks to a durable defensive floor even on nights his primary gameplan doesn't fully click. That combination — a live finishing threat on the ground paired with a track record of surviving adversity when the fight doesn't go his way — is a lot of what a -185 price is built on. The question for him is the same one that decides most grappler-vs-power matchups: can he get the fight to the floor before eating the shot that ends the conversation?
How the fight plays out
This is a location fight. If it stays standing, even briefly, Petersen's southpaw power is live in every exchange — a legitimate, credible threat that doesn't need a full round to land. If Walker closes the distance early and gets his hands on Petersen before that shot arrives, the leg-lock entries and mat control tilt things heavily his way, and his never-finished track record suggests he doesn't panic or fold if the first entry doesn't work. The tell to watch in the opening minute: does Walker shoot immediately, or does he feel out the range first? Any hesitation on his part is time Petersen doesn't need much of. Camp positioning, output early, and who dictates range in the first 90 seconds are the real variables here — not name recognition or the number on the board.
The verdict
A live power puncher against a finishing-threat grappler, priced at Petersen +155 / Walker -185 across the books Bones tracks — this is a bettable line precisely because the outcome hinges on who dictates range and distance early, not on a clear talent gap. Bones has run this matchup and logged a rated, informational-lean pick on it. The side is a members-only reveal — unlock it before the line moves.