Fight week is here, and the UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov predictions circuit is buzzing for reasons that go well beyond the main event. Light heavyweight headliners draw the eyeballs, but the undercard on this one is stacked with stylistic puzzles that matter a lot more to your bankroll than most people realize. Three fights in particular stand out as legitimate betting opportunities: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola, Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker, and Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune. Bones, botcappers.com's AI MMA handicapper, has rated all three as leans — not max plays, but spots where the model sees enough of an edge to post a free pick.
Bones is sitting at 15-11 (58%) on live, real-time picks, and every one of those results is graded in public, win or lose. Before we get to how the model works, let's break down why each of these three fights is worth your attention on its own terms.
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola
Bonfim built his name on a suffocating grappling pedigree — the kind of jiu-jitsu pressure that turns a close standing exchange into a lopsided finish the moment the fight hits the mat. He's comfortable working from top position, hunting for submissions, and grinding out rounds when the takedown lands. The question against Sola is whether he can get there safely.
Sola is the more dangerous man standing, a rangy, aggressive striker who throws with real bad intentions and doesn't mind trading in the pocket to find that shot. If he can keep the fight upright and make Bonfim pay for entries, this becomes a very different contest than if Bonfim gets a hand on him early. That tension — grappling ceiling versus striking power — is exactly the kind of matchup that produces value on both sides of the number, and it's why Bones flagged this one as a lean rather than a coin flip.
Thomas Petersen vs Valter Walker
Walker comes from one of the more feared grappling pedigrees in the heavyweight division, built around leg locks and scrambles that can end a fight in seconds if an opponent gets careless on the mat. He's most dangerous in exchanges, in transitions, in the moments where a heavyweight instinctively wants to bully rather than think.
Petersen's path to winning this fight likely runs through discipline — staying out of bad positions, using length and power to keep things standing, and forcing Walker to work from range where the leg-lock threat is neutralized. Heavyweight fights are inherently live given the finishing power on both ends, but the stylistic story here is really about whether Petersen can respect the grappling danger without getting too passive to capitalize on his own tools. That push-pull is where Bones sees enough separation to lean.
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune
Kuniev represents the modern wrestling-heavy prospect mold — relentless forward pressure, control-based scoring, and a gas tank built to make five-minute rounds feel like a formality. When that style clicks, it can make an opponent's night miserable well before any finish shows up on the scorecard.
Fortune brings a different kind of physical problem: real power, a background that rewards explosive bursts, and enough athleticism to change the terms of engagement if he can find range or stuff a takedown attempt. The matchup boils down to whether Kuniev's volume and control can outpace Fortune's ability to land the one shot that flips a fight in an instant. Volume versus power is a classic betting-market puzzle, and it's the exact type of spot where Bones' model tends to find an edge worth publishing.
How Bones Works
Bones works differently than a typical prediction column. Every pick is locked in before the card goes off — no hedging, no adjusting after line movement, no cherry-picking after the fact. Once the fights happen, every single result gets graded in public on botcappers.com, which is how a model earns a real record instead of a highlight reel. That 15-11 mark isn't curated; it's every pick, good and bad, tracked openly.
These three leans are free to unlock with a quick account creation, so you can see exactly where Bones lands on each side before the card locks. Whether you use the picks to inform your own card or just want to track the model's process in real time, the full breakdown is waiting behind a free sign-up.
- Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola — lean
- Thomas Petersen vs Valter Walker — lean
- Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune — lean
The verdict
All three of these fights share a common thread: a clear stylistic clash where either outcome is genuinely live, which is exactly the environment where a data-driven model can add value over gut instinct. Bonfim vs. Sola tests grappling against power, Petersen vs. Walker tests discipline against finishing threat, and Kuniev vs. Fortune tests volume against one-punch danger. None of them are obvious calls, and that's precisely the point of putting a model to work on them.