Heismann’s weekly positions, market notes, and permanent graded record.
Heismann publishes college-football predictions with team ratings, matchup context, market prices, and a public graded record. Every published result stays in the ledger, including losses. Browse the latest free prediction articles, verify every result in the public record, or read how the models and grading work.
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These are graded model outputs; historical replay/simulation rows are not described as preposted wagers. Losing results are never removed. Heismann has 195 graded picks on the record.
Won. UL Monroe won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UL Monroe's 0-point outing to Alabama may be a structural outlier (Alabama's elite SEC defense) rather than proof of offensive collapse. If the starting QB bounces back closer to his Week 1 form (29 points on FCS), UL Monroe could keep this within a possession, especially if UTEP's 0–2 road record signals execution issues that carry into their home opener against an unfamiliar opponent.
Won. USC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: MSU's defense tightens after the BC scare and plays a strong game in LA, holding USC closer to 24-27 points; an upset becomes possible if MSU's run game grinds and limits turnovers. However, this requires a dramatic defensive reversal from the BC tape, where MSU allowed 40 at home to a middling ACC team.
Won. Texas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Texas overlooks a desperate 0-3 opponent and plays emotionally flat in the shadow of the Ohio State loss. However, Sam Houston's documented A-game—three consecutive 17-point losses—does not create a clean path to a close game. Even at their best performance this season, they trail by 17; Texas' defensive excellence at home makes it structurally unlikely they slip to that margin.
Lost. San Diego State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: San Diego State rebounds emotionally from the road loss with energized home-field defense and ground-oriented attack, but their documented FBS form (13 ppg, 36 ppg allowed) provides no credible path to the A-game required to overcome Cal's multi-lever technical superiority.
Won. Fresno State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fresno's cross-country travel and potential letdown after beating Oregon State could amplify Hawai'i's home-crowd effect, allowing Hawai'i's defense to contain Fresno's offense better than the weekly average suggests—a clean, documented path to a Hawai'i home win that matches their A-game.
Won. UTSA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: CSU's home field and altitude suppress UTSA's road offense to a 10+ ppg cliff (from 36 at home down to 24-26), CSU's defense tightens to Northern Colorado levels (17 allowed), and CSU's offense strings together 21–24 points; CSU wins 23–22 in a defensive grind.
Won. Colorado won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wyoming's defense could force a grinding, low-scoring contest where turnovers or special-teams mistakes flip outcome—their power-run identity can steal close games if Colorado's offense stalls in hostile noise.
Lost. Maryland won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Maryland's unbeaten form and elite defensive output (4.4 PPG allowed average) could pressure Wisconsin's O-line (which managed only 14 PPG at Alabama), and if Maryland's explosive offense travels, Wisconsin's week-to-week offensive variance (17–42–14 PPG this season) could leave them short if the run game stalls on the road-equivalent crowd noise.
Lost. Western Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Western Michigan has somehow made a midseason QB adjustment or the 0-point game was an anomaly driven by circumstance (turnover spikes, early-game disaster), and they generate 20+ points on Toledo's defense before halftime; Toledo's away status and WMU's home environment keep it close enough that a late push matters.
Won. Western Kentucky won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nevada's 1-point loss to Middle Tennessee at home shows they can play tight, low-scoring defense. If WKU's unproven offense stalls in a hostile environment and Nevada scores early, the game stays within 3–4 points. However, this doesn't match Nevada's documented A-game — it's a sign of offensive dysfunction, not defensive dominance.
Won. Washington won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Washington State's -49 loss was a statistical outlier with a settled QB healthy this week, the teams' actual baselines are comparable and the home-field edge could tighten the margin significantly.
Won. Virginia won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Virginia's wins are bloated—Coastal is FBS-only by record, William & Mary is FCS—and their real level is the NC State road loss (-4 to an ACC team). Stanford's BC win (30-20 at home) proves they can match Virginia's scoring when the offense executes; if Stanford's O-line plays up a level and Virginia's untested defense is exposed, the 5-point edge evaporates.
Won. Vanderbilt won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Vanderbilt's overconfidence or letdown after 3 straight wins could create a flat-execution game, but Georgia State's documented offense has not shown FBS-level competence even against weaker defenses, narrowing the realistic upset path.
Lost. Texas Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Tech's passing attack is elite and overwhelms Utah's secondary (which has not been tested lightly on the deep ball), Tech could score 28+ and escape in a shootout, leveraging their offensive explosiveness and forcing Utah into negative variance.
Won. UConn won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ball State's Week 3 offensive explosion (34 points, outright win) could represent authentic QB or scheme breakthrough that translates to FBS level; UConn allowed 44 to Delaware, so if Ball State reaches 18–20 points, the margin halves and this is a possession game.
Won. UCF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UCF's home advantage (Bounce House environment) exceeds the estimated 3-point value, or Charlotte is significantly weaker than Jacksonville State, making UNC's form edge illusory. In either case, UCF's superior field environment flips the game.
Won. Tennessee won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tennessee gets loose after the Georgia loss and UAB stays closer than their talent gap suggests, leaning on improved defensive discipline (learned from Navy).
Won. TCU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SMU's offense breaks through with high-efficiency execution and exploits TCU's secondary; emotional rebound from the Baylor loss and hostile road environment could spark a fast start. But TCU held UNC to 14 points away, so offensive explosion is not SMU's A-game in the visible sample.
Lost. Coastal Carolina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Coastal's one documented win (13-0 vs FCS) could repeat if South Alabama plays sloppy early, but Coastal's 0-point output vs FBS makes a resurgence unlikely—the offense is broken at the FBS level, not just unlucky.
Lost. Iowa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Iowa's Big Ten defensive identity and run-game emphasis could suppress Rutgers' home advantage if the Hawkeyes' ground game pressures Rutgers into 3rd-and-longs and Iowa's defense travels cleanly—this matches Iowa's A-game and is the realest path to an upset.
Won. Oregon won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oregon State's defense tightens at home and holds Oregon to 35–40 instead of their 59–69 range, while Oregon State scrapes 20+. This still results in an Oregon win of 15–20 points. For Oregon State to cover a close game, both their offense and Oregon's offense must regress simultaneously in a game where Oregon has forced 162 points and Oregon State has generated only 56 across identical FBS schedules — the trajectory (−19, −9, −31) suggests demoralization, not hidden strength.
Won. Ole Miss won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tulane's air-raid offense finds rhythm early and forces missed coverage in Ole Miss's uptempo scheme; the escape mentality (South Alabama +2, Duke +7) carries into regulation, and a tight first half becomes a close fourth-quarter game.
Won. Oklahoma won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Auburn's offensive efficiency (37 ppg) and demonstrated road pedigree (38 points scored away at Baylor) could override Oklahoma's defensive gameplan and home-field leverage if Auburn's QB execution proves more polished than typical for Sanchez's first-year system.
Won. Notre Dame won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Purdue's offense struggles in their first away game (only 17 PPG vs. USC's strong front), while ND's home crowd and 1-3-point loss pattern finally break through—ND scores 30+, Purdue's defense/offense both regress on the road, and ND wins a close game at home.
Won. Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Michigan's explosive offensive capability (63-point output vs Central Michigan, roster quality implied by Big Ten resources) combined with Oklahoma's defensive pedigree (held Michigan to 13) means if Michigan's pass game finds rhythm against Nebraska's secondary—which has faced only Cincinnati's mid-tier offense—Michigan's fundamentally superior schedule strength could produce an upset. Michigan is likely the better team on a neutral field; road favorites can exploit this margin.
Won. Missouri won.
Documented risk, written before the result: South Carolina's offense rebounds to the +13 Virginia Tech level and their defense stiffens after the Vanderbilt implosion—a 24-27 South Carolina performance with Mizzou held under 31 produces a one-possession game that South Carolina's emotional angle could win.
Won. Mississippi State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Northern Illinois' Maryland loss was a matchup nightmare (not indicative of general weakness) and their 1-1 desperation produces an emotional away-game spike, combined with Mississippi State regressing toward the ASU-tight +4 margin, an upset is possible — but this requires multiple conditions and doesn't match Northern Illinois' documented A-game (2-point FCS squeak, 9-point Power-program loss).
Won. Marshall won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Marshall is 0–2 FBS on the road with an unresolved QB, so early stalls or turnovers could flip this to MTSU's proven closing ability (14–13 vs Nevada). MTSU's home crowd and defensive grind could steal a low-scoring affair if Marshall's QB is a true freshman.
Won. UNLV won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UNLV's QB under road pressure (first away game of the season) combined with Miami (OH)'s home-field energy and defensive tightening; if UNLV stalls offensively to 20–24 ppg, Miami (OH) can sneak this at home.
Won. Miami won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Florida's QB stays clean early (true freshman surprise or mobile backup), Miami's home crowd doesn't suffocate the first half, and a rival road game produces chaos; Florida sneaks into a close score and keeps it within the margin despite Miami's form edge.
Won. Memphis won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Arkansas's offense put up 56 and 52 points on weaker competition and remains explosive enough to overwhelm Memphis if the defense is compromised and the Memphis offense stalls (28 points on Troy is a floor-level outing that could put Memphis in a shootout Arkansas is equipped to win).
Won. Louisville won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bowling Green's documented A-game (beat Liberty at home, played Cincinnati competitively away) is a clean, likely path to a trap-game upset if Louisville's offense stalls and Bowling Green executes their game plan.
Won. Louisiana Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Louisiana Tech's offense has produced only 24 ppg in competitive settings (and just 7 vs LSU away); if that pattern repeats, Southern Miss's documented road-capability form could engineer an upset despite the elite home defense.
Won. James Madison won.
Documented risk, written before the result: JMU's offense simply dominates Liberty's at home (the 45-10 demolition) and translates enough of it on the road to overcome the site effect. Liberty's two consecutive 10-point road losses to inferior G5 defenses suggest structural offensive problems that persist even at home.
Lost. Kennesaw State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: KSU's home-field advantage and the recent win (vs Merrimack) give them crowd momentum and a tight game script. If their offense merely avoids the 9-point ceiling and their defense forces a third consecutive low-scoring affair, a 3–6 point home win is their cleanest path; ASU's form advantage only barely survives that real leverage.
Won. Kansas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: WVU's defense (held Pittsburgh to 24 at home) forces Kansas into a similar low-output pattern, and Greene rebounds from Ohio with an efficient road performance, WVU wins 21-20.
Won. Indiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Indiana's strong recent output (Kennesaw State +47) and undefeated home record (3-0 at Memorial Stadium) represent a realistic path to replicating that form; if Indiana shows +47-level dominance rather than the +13 floor set by Old Dominion, Illinois is in trouble.
Won. Georgia Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Temple's 3-point output was a one-game system breakdown (QB injury now resolved, turnover epidemic corrected) rather than roster weakness; if the offense rebounds from that level, the margin tightens.
Won. Florida State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kent State's documented near-peak is a three-point home loss (vs. Buffalo, 28–31); if Kent State executes that script and FSU plays loose, a one-score game becomes live, handing Kent State an upset path.
Lost. Delaware won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Delaware's passing game showed competence at home (44 points vs UConn), and if it establishes early rhythm in Miami, they could stay close or pull the upset. FIU's defense was shut out at Penn State, hinting at possible vulnerabilities if Delaware's offense clicks. The high-scoring home game (44-41) suggests Delaware's QB can move the ball downfield, and a tight contest could easily flip.
Lost. Eastern Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Eastern Michigan's documented FBS offensive performance (both road games 20+ ppg) could translate to 23-27 ppg at home with crowd support, and if Louisiana's away-game offense regresses to its 10-ppg floor (as it did vs Mizzou), Eastern Michigan's defensive weakness becomes irrelevant and they win by 13+.
Won. BYU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: BYU's 2-game defensive sample could regress against ECU's home-field-elevated offense, and road inexperience could limit BYU's offensive output.
Won. Duke won.
Documented risk, written before the result: NC State's margins have been modest (4–10 points) across three wins, suggesting they do not dominate; a single turnover or execution lapse in a road environment could flip the game.
Lost. Syracuse won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Syracuse has won their last two games and may be trending upward; Clemson has lost back-to-back games and could lack momentum. If Syracuse's offense executes early, Clemson's defense could be caught vulnerable, and Clemson's decision-making under pressure (they've been close in three games) may falter.
Lost. Troy won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Troy's QB is a settled starter who had one genuinely catastrophic game vs Memphis, and true offensive level is the 38-point FCS baseline (24-28 per-game range). If Troy's OL plays fundamentally better than vs Memphis, this tightens to 3-7 points or worse for Buffalo.
Won. Arizona State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Baylor's offense executes at full capacity (the SMU precedent is real, and home field amplifies execution edge) while ASU's defense slips coverage assignments or makes missed tackles in the second half, allowing Baylor to come back and win—a clean A-game path matched to Baylor's documented high-output game.
Lost. North Texas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Army's triple option, sharpened by K-State prep, could dictate tempo and control the line of scrimmage at Michie if North Texas's defense is unprepared for option discipline. North Texas's only 3-point margin at Western Michigan suggests vulnerability to methodical, scheme-based attacks rather than overwhelming athleticism.
Lost. Boise State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Boise's defense installs crisp option-containment assignments in one week and forces multiple turnovers, or Boise's QB (unverified) executes an efficient drive early to establish confidence and rhythm, disruptive to Air Force's tempo control.
Lost. Tulsa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oklahoma State's QB/OL dysfunction persists (the 3-point game was not pure Oregon dominance, but offensive structural failure); Tulsa's defense, which held NMSU to 21, limits OSU to 17-20 points, and Tulsa's scrappy 14-17 point output sneaks through for a road upset.
Won. Rice won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rice's confidence and QB execution could be genuinely shaken after the 26-point Houston blowout, while Charlotte's offense stabilizes at Jerry Richardson Stadium (they scored 42 vs. Monmouth there). If Charlotte tightens defensively and Rice sputters early, an upset is plausible.
Won. Utah won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wyoming's elite defense (0 vs Akron, 7 vs Northern Iowa) contains Utah's offense in the thin air; Utah scores 18-22, Wyoming reaches 17-20. But Wyoming's 10-pt Akron form is the real threat model—if that repeats or improves only slightly, Utah's edge is decisive.
Lost. Utah State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Utah State's home-field advantage combined with one full week of option film. If their defense adjusts assignments and Utah State's offense finds any rhythm, Air Force's limited scoring firepower and narrow margin become critical. The Maverik Stadium crowd is a real factor in a close game.
Won. UAB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Akron's starter was replaced by an experienced backup due to injury, that QB might be competent enough to hold UAB to 14-17 points and keep the game closer than expected.
Won. Navy won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tulsa is home and could sharpen defensively after the NMSU loss; if their offense finds rhythm and forces Navy into turnovers, an upset is viable.
Won. Tulane won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Duke's 45-point Elon blowout could reflect an efficient offense facing a standalone elite Illinois defense; if Duke's QB is settled and healthy and avoids the mental lapses evident in the -26 home collapse, they could score 28–32 on the road, especially if Tulane's South Alabama experience (33-31 close road win) rather than Northwestern dominance (23-3) is the predictive ceiling for Tulane's offense.
Lost. Stanford won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stanford's 3-point output at BYU could be a one-game anomaly—a backup QB scenario, a true starter having a catastrophic game, or a specific scheme collision—and the "real" Stanford offense is the 20-point road game at Hawai'i. If the starter settles in at home and scores 28–30, this becomes a one-possession game; however, even that is still below BC's proven 40-point road output.
Won. California won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Minnesota's defensive line (legitimate film on Buffalo) forces enough three-and-outs to stall Cal's rhythm; Krill + a grinding Big Ten offense exploits a young, newly-hired coaching staff (Wilber) on the road and sneaks out a low-scoring ugly win.
Won. Arizona State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: ASU's defense forces punts/turnovers against Texas State's porous defense (allowed 31.5 ppg) after the MSU reset, while ASU's offense breaks out of its 20-point road funk and scores 26–28 at home, winning 28–24.
Won. West Virginia won.
Documented risk, written before the result: WVU has been stingy defensively (allowing only 17 points even in a loss at Ohio), and if Pitt's young offense (under new HC Kade Bell) sputters in a hostile environment, WVU could steal a home upset—particularly if the QB and receivers translate the Ohio struggles as road-only noise and execute at home.
Lost. Old Dominion won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Virginia Tech's home crowd and 0–2 desperation spark a mid-game adjustment (tempo, personnel, play design) that lets the offense execute at least one sustained drive; if the QB gets clean pockets even briefly, a break-out play closes the margin.
Lost. New Mexico won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UCLA is a P5 program with significantly more talent on paper; if Week 1's 10-point home outing was a true anomaly and the QB situation stabilizes in Week 3, UCLA's home field and talent advantage could materialize and overcome the early-season form deficit.
Won. Memphis won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Troy's home environment could energize an offense that appeared constrained at Clemson, and Memphis's away-game status carries structural disadvantages (travel fatigue, crowd noise, early-season road-game execution) that could sustain offensive underperformance.
Won. Texas Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Oregon State's QB is competent and the -19 → -9 form trajectory reflects structural offensive improvement (not just soft Week 1/2 opponents), they execute in Lubbock and contest or beat Texas Tech. Their 27-point output and defensive effort at home is their documented A-game.
Won. Texas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Texas comes flat after losing to Ohio State and UTEP's offense (42 on FCS opposition, 58 total PF through 2 games) catches them early. But UTEP's defense surrendered 28 to Utah State and lacks the personnel to sustain drives against a Big 12 passing offense.
Lost. Georgia won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Georgia's SEC-hardened physical defense and chain-control identity could impose dominance early and suppress Tennessee's tempo. If Georgia's defensive line wins the line decisively and forces lengthy drives, Tennessee's pace advantage collapses into a low-scoring methodical game that suits Georgia's approach.
Won. Oklahoma won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Temple's execution at home matches their away performance at UMass, and the margin between Michigan's quality and UMass's quality is smaller than the raw form suggests. If Temple's actual strength is closer to +32 than OU's true capability is to +11 (because Michigan is structurally stronger than UMass), Temple's home field flips the game.
Lost. Southern Miss won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Southern Miss rebounds at home after a loss with renewed motivation, and if their offense was scheme-mismatched or temporarily unsettled against Mississippi State's SEC front rather than fundamentally broken, they execute better here and App State's FBS success (at neutral site, vs. Charlotte) may not translate to the road.
Lost. Vanderbilt won.
Documented risk, written before the result: South Carolina's defensive unit could further suppress Vanderbilt's offense in a hostile environment more effectively than the Virginia Tech matchup implied, especially if Vanderbilt's offensive production regresses or South Carolina's defense improves its execution at home.
Won. USC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Purdue's defense plays with desperate home-field energy and replicates the Ball State shutdown form, holding USC's explosive offense in check; a letdown or overlooked-game dynamic from USC (undefeated against weak schedules) combines with Purdue's conservative ground-game identity to grind out a close outcome or upset.
Won. Ole Miss won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Arkansas's sustained offensive explosiveness (52 and 56 PPG in both games) could simply overwhelm Ole Miss's defense regardless of SEC pedigree; both teams are undefeated, and Arkansas may be the genuinely superior roster that hasn't yet shown vulnerability.
Won. Ohio State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ohio plays a clean, mistake-free game and leverages early-season form noise to stay within one score—a realistic scenario where MAC discipline occasionally steals games from Power 5 programs despite inferior talent.
Lost. Texas A&M won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Notre Dame's crowd and defensive intensity at home can suppress A&M's offensive rhythm, especially for a young QB or line in their first road environment; if ND's offense shakes off Week 1 rust and stays efficient, a 3–7 point home upset is the most likely upset path.
Won. Oregon won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Northwestern's Week 1 Tulane output was a backup or a one-off execution collapse, not a roster signal—the QB settles at home, the defensive line tightens after the reality check, and early-season variance favors the home underdog more than two-week form alone predicts.
Lost. North Texas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: North Texas's home-field advantage + Texas recruiting infrastructure could sustain them more than one away game suggests. A defensive rebound at home (from 30 allowed to 17–20) paired with offensive consistency (33–35 points) would erase WSU's margin and flip the game.
Lost. Middle Tennessee won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Middle Tennessee's offensive line/QB dysfunction could revert to preseason talent after a brutal 0-2 start, and Nevada's one-score win over FCS Sacramento State is not a reliable floor—road travel can catalyze turnarounds for struggling teams seeking a reset.
Won. SMU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Missouri State's home crowd and defensive line momentum could force SMU into predictable passing; if SMU's road offense regresses from 45 to the low-20s and Missouri State's defense tightens to repeat its Marshall performance (20 points allowed), a narrow 1-point escape similar to Week 2 becomes possible.
Won. Missouri won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Louisiana's Week 1 defense held Rice to 14 points. If that unit holds firm *and* the offense repeats the Week 2 efficiency (34 points) while Missouri's defense regresses (gave up 31 to Kansas), Louisiana could cover or upset. This requires both sides to trend their Week 2 direction simultaneously—possible but not the base form read.
Won. Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: CMU's defense (held San José to 14) forces early turnovers and plays a defensive slugfest that mirrors their 16-14 road win; Michigan's new portal QB struggles in the first half and CMU stays close into halftime. The talent differential overwhelms by the 3rd quarter, but early volatility in week 3 keeps this from being comfortable.
Won. Miami won.
Documented risk, written before the result: USF's Boise destruction (34-7) was genuine offensive firepower; if that level of execution shows up at Miami, the small home advantage vanishes.
Won. Louisiana Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Louisiana Tech's 24-0 performance vs SE Louisiana could scale up to a decisive home win if the offense regains form and the Joe Aillet crowd energizes the defense.
Won. LSU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Florida's QB clicks and their offensive identity executes closer to the 55-0 standard (not the dysfunctional 16-point home game), they can move 25+ points and trouble a Clemson-level LSU defense that held to 10 and 7 in back-to-back FBS games.
Won. Kentucky won.
Documented risk, written before the result: EMU is desperate after 0-2 and could rally with early intensity; if Kentucky overlooks them and falls behind, EMU's offense (scoring 25 PPG) could keep it close. However, the defensive gap (23 vs. 40 PPG allowed) is wide enough that Kentucky should pull away late.
Won. Buffalo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Buffalo's offense scored only 10 points against Minnesota's P5 defense; if that offensive funk resurfaces and Kent State's defense settles (they held FCS Merrimack to just 17), Kent State could win low-scoring at home.
Won. Iowa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UMass could keep it closer if Iowa looks past them toward future weeks, and defensive collapse from Kinnick fatigue is possible. But the dossier (32-point home demolition by Temple) shows UMass lacks personnel to sustain field discipline against FBS power; this is not a bend-don't-break team.
Won. Illinois won.
Documented risk, written before the result: WMU's 30-point output at home and 3-point close loss suggest offensive competence if the QB is functional; a true freshman or shaky starter for Illinois + a week-3 letdown after an easy schedule (FCS cupcake + Duke non-power game) could tighten this significantly.
Lost. Georgia Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Clemson's elite talent and power-run identity can overwhelm Georgia Tech's front despite the road deficit; a dominant reversion to Clemson's historical A-game (trench-driven, balanced attack) would negate Georgia Tech's home field and form advantage.
Lost. Georgia Southern won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Georgia Southern could solidify defensively at home with crowd support and emotional reset if their Week 1-2 collapse was situational rather than roster-structural, keeping the margin tighter than form suggests.
Won. Florida International won.
Documented risk, written before the result: FAU's Week 2 road loss at Maryland may not be predictive of Week 3 home performance; if FAU's offense finds its footing (QB/scheme adjustment) and FIU remains the team that got blanked at Penn State, FAU wins outright and the home-field edge evaporates.
Lost. Delaware won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UConn's modest 20-point output at Syracuse (an ACC away game) could recur if the QB is actually limited or if Delaware's defense tightens at home; a defensive grind would negate UConn's offensive edge and result in a tighter margin or a Delaware upset.
Won. East Carolina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Coastal's home crowd holds ECU's road offense to ≤17 points (ECU's single road output) while Coastal's home offensive execution exceeds their FCS showing (13 points), the margin tightens to a coin flip and Coastal wins.
Won. Bowling Green won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bowling Green's home-field advantage is real and measurable (3–4 points in college football); that edge fully neutralizes Liberty's thin form advantage, and BG's defense held Cincinnati to the same 34 that Jax St scored on Liberty, suggesting defensive parity despite the one-score margin.
Won. Auburn won.
Documented risk, written before the result: South Alabama, hungry after a home loss, could control tempo with a ground game and exploit Auburn's possible complacency in a non-conference game, but Auburn's defensive quality and home-field dominance make this path low-probability.
Won. Iowa State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Iowa State's two FBS wins were both by 3 points—tight margins that could reflect near-parity rather than dominance—and they could be complacent after back-to-back FBS wins. Arkansas State at home with crowd energy could compress the margin to a 2-3 point game, even if Iowa State still prevails.
Won. Arizona won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Arizona's opponents (Hawai'i FBS, Weber State FCS) are weak; if their defense regresses to merely good, and Kansas State's competitiveness in close FBS losses translates to a tighter margin, this could be a 3–7 point game instead of 10.
Lost. Alabama won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Alabama's home-field crowd and deep-threat receiving talent could overwhelm Wisconsin's secondary if Ty Simpson settles and the O-line holds better than @ FSU.
Lost. Houston won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shedeur Sanders (settled starter, air-raid elite) shakes off the Georgia Tech performance and exploits Houston's secondary in rhythm; Colorado's home-field advantage (altitude, crowd prep) overrides travel friction and Colorado wins.
Won. NC State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wake's elite defensive line (9 points allowed to Kennesaw) shuts down NC State's offense entirely (holding them to 14–16 points), while Wake's weak offense generates just enough at home to steal a low-scoring win (13–15), or a defensive TD/turnover fuels a Wake upset.
Won. Washington State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: WSU's defense held Idaho to 10 points and is the stronger unit; Week 1 offensive rust could evaporate at home, and a full-strength WSU offense at Gesa Field with crowd support punishes SDSU's road inexperience in a close spot.
Won. UNLV won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UCLA's Week 1 was a perfect-storm game-plan disaster (Utah's scheme perfectly attacked UCLA's identity); Week 2 they reset with a corrected scheme and the starting QB finds rhythm, allowing the superior P5 talent to show through and win outright despite being on the road.
Won. New Mexico State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: NMSU's home crowd could energize their defense while Tulsa regresses from its FCS performance, making an NMSU win plausible especially if their QB is more settled than Tulsa's.
Lost. Hawai'i won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sam Houston's offensive consistency (21–24 ppg across both losses) carries over with a clean game plan, and Hawai'i's at-home defense—fragile after allowing 40 to Arizona—fails to contain them, resulting in a one-score outcome.
Won. BYU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stanford's competitive 3-point road loss implies functional fundamentals; if their roster is better (higher pedigree, successful portal adds) they easily win straight up despite travel, and the close loss to Hawaiʻi signals true competence vs BYU's FCS noise.
Won. Wisconsin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wisconsin overlooks a G5 opponent after a shutout, though MTSU has zero momentum postloss—the sharper risk is if MTSU's Week 1 roster was compromised by injuries/absences not visible in dossier and they are significantly better than the Austin Peay game suggests; however, there is no evidence of this in the data.
Won. North Texas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: North Texas's 51-0 precision could translate to FBS if their QB is settled and their line is athletic; their offensive execution vs Lamar showed discipline that might not be noise. If their QB is genuinely competent, they could overpower Western Michigan's defense (which just absorbed a Big Ten beatdown). North Texas also avoids the letdown narrative.
Lost. Vanderbilt won.
Documented risk, written before the result: VT's 11 points reflects a persistent QB or scheme problem—not Week 1 rust—that will suppress scoring even at home, while Vanderbilt's portal-era roster rebuild has genuinely reshaped them into a team that can execute FBS-level offense on the road.
Lost. Texas State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UTSA's home crowd, defensive competence vs A&M (42 points allowed is respectable for a power program), and motivation to rebound off a loss could enable a defensive grind where Texas State's offensive edge is muted by field position and turnover luck, handing UTSA a low-scoring upset.
Won. USC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: USC's new starter (unresolved from one FCS win) is a true freshman or portal project rattled by Coliseum crowd noise on a Saturday; Georgia Southern's run game and option execution stay compact and keep the game tighter than expected.
Lost. Toledo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Toledo's home-field desperation bounce-back after an 8-point loss to Kentucky could tighten a game if WKU's offense stalls on the road and the Rockets impose their will defensively—but Toledo has not shown the production profile to match WKU's efficiency.
Won. Texas Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kent State's defense allowed only 17 points to FCS, implying competent run-stopping fundamentals; if their scheme can force Tech into inefficiency and avoid giving up explosive plays, they could tighten the margin. However, this requires roster-level parity Kent State does not possess.
Won. Texas A&M won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Utah State's ground-based, clock-grinding scheme could keep pace if the RB room executes against SEC DL and A&M's defense is undisciplined about gap control — but this requires Utah State to outperform its Week 1 form (28 points, +12 vs G5), not a probable path.
Won. Texas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Texas lays an egg at home after the demoralizing Ohio State shutout (letdown/flat emotion risk); SJSU's uptempo or disruptive identity catches them sleeping early. However, SJSU's Week 1 form (close home game vs mid-MAC, 14-point output) doesn't profile a team that competes with Power 4 programs even in motivation-gap spots.
Won. Syracuse won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UConn could have a strong portal-transfer QB or underrated OL that the dossier doesn't capture, but the 59-13 FCS win shows no sign of above-average CFB talent—it's consistent with a competent MAC team doing what it should against FCS.
Won. Tulane won.
Documented risk, written before the result: South Alabama's Week 1 offensive firepower (38 points at home) could overcome Tulane's elite Week 1 defense if the 23-3 performance proves early-season noise and South Alabama's home crowd suppresses Tulane's offensive efficiency.
Lost. Baylor won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Baylor's Week 1 loss is a matchup outlier (Auburn's scheme/talent) or natural Week 1 adjustment, not endemic weakness. SMU has not faced FBS competition, and if Baylor's offense tightens up or SMU's defense is exposed against real FBS pace/power, Baylor wins straight up.
Won. Rutgers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rutgers' D-line gave up 31 to Ohio at home; if the front doesn't tighten and Miami comes motivated after a shutout, this could land Rutgers 21–24, Miami 17–20. But Miami's complete offensive failure (0 points against a good-but-not-elite Wisconsin D) suggests ongoing dysfunction, not a motivated rebound with one week to fix it.
Lost. Houston won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Houston's home field and preseason talent advantage (likely higher-resourced program) make this a coin flip; if Houston's trenches or QB are actually superior, a Week 1 blowout vs FCS is consistent with a comfortable road win here.
Won. Pittsburgh won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pitt's preseason offensive uncertainty (unsettled QB + portal departures entering 2025) leaves them undercooked at home; CMU's defensive form against San José State was functionally sound, and if Pitt's passing game misfires, a 2-point road team has the discipline to steal this one.
Won. Penn State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Penn State comes out flat or overlooks FIU after the dominant Nevada win, but this doesn't match FIU's documented A-game. FIU's strengths are beating FCS bodies at home and C-USA competition, not executing Big Ten-level plays on the road.
Won. Fresno State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fresno State's massive away/home split (7 vs 42 points) re-emerges; the road offense reverts to Week-1 form, scoring 10–14 points, while Oregon State rebounds at home and Oregon State's defense tightens.
Won. Oregon won.
Documented risk, written before the result: OSU's defense could be significantly stronger than the Week 1 form implies; if their defense limits Oregon's scoring while the run game grinds forward, they stay competitive or flip it. However, no defensive evidence is demonstrated in the dossier to support this.
Lost. Oklahoma won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oklahoma's Norman home environment (100k+ SEC crowd) plus a second-year Venables rebuild that may be further along than one FCS game reflects could disrupt a visiting team more than Michigan's form warrants.
Won. Ohio won.
Documented risk, written before the result: West Virginia is a Big 12 program with superior trenches and roster depth; if they show up prepared for FBS-level competition and establish the run game, they could overcome Ohio's home-field edge and prove themselves the better team on true talent.
Won. Nebraska won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Akron's Week 1 shutout could be an outlier—a game-plan mismatch or flukey special-teams failure rather than a roster verdict. If their QB or offensive line simply executed poorly one week and corrects in Week 2, they stay competitive. Nebraska's modest +3 margin over Cincinnati (not a blowout) leaves room for Akron to hang close if Nebraska's offense stalls.
Won. Navy won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UAB's defensive coordinator game-plans the option effectively over seven days, executes gap discipline, and limits Navy to 20-21 points while UAB's offense (52 on Alabama State) scores 24+, winning with greater efficiency.
Won. NC State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Virginia's 48 points is regression-prone; if they truly are a 24–28-point team on the road, NC State's 24-point home baseline becomes suddenly competitive. NC State's defensive anchoring (17 allowed vs ECU) combined with Virginia's first-true-road inexperience and crowd environment creates a clean path to NC State winning that matches their documented Week-1 form.
Won. Missouri won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kansas's QB and offensive efficiency (31 points on Fresno, solid protection form) may understate their ability to execute in a road environment; if they stay clean and Missouri's defense is leaky in its first FBS outing, Kansas wins.
Lost. Mississippi State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Arizona State's 38-point offensive output from Week 1 translates to the FBS level and proves sufficient to overcome home-field disadvantage and defeat MSU's defense.
Lost. Michigan State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: BC's 66-point offensive explosion—even on FCS—suggests a sharper, more efficient scheme than MSU's 23 on FBS; if BC's O-line and scheme travel to East Lansing, they could sustain drives and win a close game.
Lost. Missouri State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Missouri State's 60-point loss may reflect opponent quality differential (USC's roster tier) rather than true capability delta; if Missouri State's roster is more competent than the USC blowout suggests, this pick inverts.
Won. LSU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: LSU comes out flat after a strong Week 1 road showing, Tech's offense executes a disciplined game plan early, and the G5 defense makes timely plays to keep this close into the second half. But LSU's Week 1 road win vs Clemson (not an accident) suggests they're locked in, and the structural talent gap is real—this outcome is low probability.
Won. Ole Miss won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Kentucky's home defense (disciplined per Stoops' scheme) slows Ole Miss's tempo and Dart struggles in a hostile road environment, Ole Miss's margin shrinks sharply and Kentucky steals a close one.
Lost. Army won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Army's triple-option is volatile and can generate explosive plays and field-control time-of-possession if K-State's assignment work slips early; a 2–3 point game is live if the option clicks and K-State's offense sputters.
Lost. Jacksonville State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jacksonville State's defense forces early turnovers (fumble or INT in the first 15 minutes), and their offense—recovering from Week 1 dysfunction—manufactures 16-17 points in a low-scoring, field-position battle on home field, allowing a potential upset.
Won. Iowa State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Iowa is a respected Big Ten program with likely elite defensive talent; if McNamara settles quickly and the Iowa offense executes the way the UAlbany game suggests (34 points, efficient), they could impose a pace and scheme Iowa State's defense failed to match against K-State, turning the 3-point escape into an upset template.
Won. Indiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kennesaw's Week 1 output could be an outlier rather than a ceiling. If their offense functions better than the 9-point output suggests and their QB is more competent, they could stay within one score into the 4th quarter—matching the one-point resilience they showed at Wake. However, Indiana's home crowd and Big Ten resources at Bloomington create a bigger edge than the road environment is a problem for Kennesaw, so Indiana should separate in the 2nd half.
Won. Memphis won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Georgia State's offensive struggles were road-and-adjustment related, not structural; at home against Memphis's AAC-level front (less elite than Ole Miss's defense), Georgia State's QB plays adequately and their defense (which held Ole Miss to 63) forces a closer contest than the 5-point edge projects, making this a 1–3 point game.
Lost. South Florida won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If South Florida's offense has portability to the road and Florida's defense isn't elite—unverified vs. FBS competition—the road G5 team could hang tight or steal outright.
Won. Illinois won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Duke's backup QB proves competent (portal addition or natural development, unknown from dossier), home-field advantage becomes the dominant factor in a close game, and Duke wins behind crowd noise despite Illinois's QB edge.
Won. Colorado won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Delaware could win if their offense operates at a higher level than typical FCS programs and Colorado's 0-1 start creates lethargy or mental letdown after losing at home to an ACC opponent.
Won. Clemson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Clemson's offense remains sluggish and disjointed from the LSU game (QB confidence, timing), staying well below its normal level, and Troy's G5 defense stays closer than the talent gap predicts.
Won. Cincinnati won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cincinnati's competent Nebraska performance could be a mirage (scheme matchup, positive variance) that regresses in Week 2, while Bowling Green's physical MAC fundamentals and coaching could travel better than a one-game FCS form suggests, especially with momentum from the home opener.
Won. North Carolina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Charlotte's defense lands early at home and controls the line of scrimmage against UNC's unclear QB situation; UNC's poor showing at home vs. TCU's pressure translates on the road, and Charlotte's run game exploits a weakened UNC front.
Won. Auburn won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ball State's Week 1 shutout was a aberration (true freshman QB forced out early, injury correction, or Week 1 chaos) and their offense functions at minimal competence (15–20 points) by Week 2, tightening the margin to 10–14 points and forcing a closer outcome than Auburn's form baseline implies.
Won. Arkansas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Arkansas State could be a genuinely capable Group of Five team masked by single FCS opposition; if the Red Wolves' 42-point outing and 18-point margin represent real functional FBS-caliber talent, they stay within a possession in Fayetteville.
Won. Alabama won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Alabama's offensive dysfunction from the FSU game (17-point output) persists, narrowing the margin to 7–10 points; if Monroe's defense is better-schemed than their film suggests, Alabama limps to a low-scoring win that keeps Monroe within a possession late.
Lost. Maryland won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Northern Illinois' defense (evident from the 2-point home margin) proves stiffer than Maryland's 39-point output suggests, and an unexpectedly sharp NIU offense steals a close game in Week 2.
Won. Louisville won.
Documented risk, written before the result: James Madison's defense translates sharper FCS-level discipline to the FBS stage, or Louisville's Week 1 offensive efficiency (51 points on FCS) regresses to 24–28 points on actual FBS talent, narrowing the margin below the projected 4–5 points.
Won. TCU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: North Carolina establishes the run game early at home and limits TCU's ability to score in space, keeping the game close into the fourth quarter before TCU's superior execution wins out late.
Won. Washington won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Washington's Year 1 coaching staff missteps early (mirrors their late-2024 collapse under DeBoer), CSU's QB/portal additions prove stronger than late-season form suggested, and the away-game disadvantage evaporates.
Lost. Utah won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Utah's documented A-game is close, defensive grinding (BYU and Iowa State both tight 1- and 3-point contests). If Whittingham's game plan holds, this becomes a 3-point game both sides can win—a likely path to a Utah upset that matches their tight-game track record.
