Heismann’s weekly positions, market notes, and permanent graded record.
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These are graded model outputs; historical replay and closing-price rows are not described as preposted wagers. Losing results are never removed. Heismann has 516 graded picks on the record.
Won. San José State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Weaver's injury could stall San José State enough for UTEP to win a low-scoring home game, particularly if Barnes is available to strengthen coverage, although UTEP has not documented that complete A-game against FBS opposition.
Won. Louisiana Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Armenta reproduces ULM's 35-point South Alabama output against a Tech defense that conceded 29 and 31 in its last two games, turning another narrow finish against the visitors.
Lost. San Diego State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SDSU reproduces its Texas State offensive performance at home while Fresno’s depleted offensive line and running-back rotation prevent Mandal from sustaining enough scoring drives.
Lost. Oregon won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nebraska reproduces its Michigan State road performance through efficient Colandrea-led possessions, attacks Oregon’s weakened safety depth and forces Thomas to sustain drives without Moore or a full receiving group.
Won. New Mexico won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Alejado reproduces the offensive efficiency behind Hawai'i's 29-point New Mexico State win by exploiting New Mexico's depleted linebacker and cornerback personnel, while the Lobos' restricted receiving depth prevents them from answering.
Won. Wake Forest won.
Documented risk, written before the result: California repeats its Virginia Tech defensive performance and Brousseau supplies enough offense under McCann to turn Wake’s cross-country trip into another close contest, resembling Wake’s narrow Purdue and Louisville escapes.
Won. Virginia Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Georgia Tech repeats its Duke-level offensive production while Virginia Tech's depleted line and receiving options leave its offense closer to the 20-point California performance.
Won. Texas Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Arizona State reproduces its Kansas defensive performance, gets functional interior-line returns, and makes Tech's reduced short-yardage options produce stalled drives in a low-possession game.
Won. Texas A&M won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The Citadel reproduces its 43-point Charlotte offense against A&M's compromised linebacker rotation while turnovers and protection breakdowns push the Aggies toward another six-point offensive performance.
Lost. Florida won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Florida reproduces its Ole Miss offensive performance with effective quarterback play while Texas repeats the modest scoring output that kept all three major-conference opponents within one possession.
Lost. Tennessee won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tennessee repeats its controlled 24-14 Auburn or 24-17 Arkansas performance while exploiting Alabama's compromised protection and defensive depth; Alabama's UNCONFIRMED recruiting-restriction status adds a separate risk whose supported worst case concerns recruiting operations, with no established game-day personnel effect and no numerical deduction.
Won. Louisville won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nelson sustains Syracuse’s Virginia-level scoring against Louisville’s vulnerable coverage while home defensive performance approaches the 21 points allowed against California; Ross-Simmons’ UNCONFIRMED status could either preserve a useful receiving option or, if unavailable, weaken that upset path.
Won. Stanford won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stanford's defensive collapse persists and Elon reproduces its historical 31-point FBS scoring performance against Vanderbilt, with Stanford's uncertain rushing personnel helping turn stalled possessions into an upset.
Lost. Arkansas State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Southern Miss repeats its Tulane-level defensive performance while Lyddy directs sufficient offense against an Arkansas State defense that just conceded 56, reversing this narrow lean.
Won. South Florida won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kent reproduces its 13-point defensive performances while South Florida’s potentially unsettled tackle configuration stalls possessions, allowing DeShields to win a low-scoring game.
Lost. Tulsa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rice repeats its UTSA defensive performance and sustains possessions through Brown and Hardeman, while a continued Calloway absence, whose current status is unconfirmed, narrows Tulsa's receiving depth enough to stall its passing advantage.
Won. Washington won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Purdue repeats its Minnesota performance, sustaining scoring drives against Washington's depleted defense while forcing an inexperienced Brown into obvious passing situations.
Won. Ole Miss won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Missouri reproduces its recent SEC defensive suppression and attacks Ole Miss’s depleted secondary with Simmons, while the UNCONFIRMED fixture item carries only a contingent preparation-disruption risk if a current effect emerges.
Lost. Kentucky won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kentucky repeats its Texas A&M road performance, with Minchey exploiting Oklahoma's missing defensive backs while the doubtful offensive-line group leaves Mateer unable to sustain enough scoring drives.
Won. North Dakota State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Jones can play effectively, Nevada reproducing its UTEP performance against an NDSU offense recently held to seven points, potentially constrained by Hayes’s foot injury, supplies its clearest upset path.
Lost. Northwestern won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Michigan State repeats its Illinois offensive performance at home while Northwestern’s replacement guard and potentially limited receiving options prevent Chiles from keeping pace.
Won. Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Penn State reproduces the defensive control shown against its G5 opponents against Michigan’s depleted line, keeping the scoring requirement within reach of the offense that scored 23 against USC.
Won. Miami (OH) won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Akron repeats its Eastern Michigan offensive performance while holding Heavner's offense near its recent 20-point level, turning Miami's limited scoring cushion into an outright loss.
Won. Miami won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Florida State combines its Virginia-level defensive execution with its Alabama-level scoring, attacking Miami's replacement right guard while possible Lyle unavailability and limitations within the unconfirmed personnel cluster reduce Miami's rushing support and defensive resistance.
Won. Rutgers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lonergan restores the offense that scored 35 against USC, and Rutgers uses its preparation advantage against Maryland's depleted defense to win despite its own secondary and running-back limitations.
Lost. Louisiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Louisiana reproduces its productive G5 offense and Charlotte-level defensive performance, exploiting Troy's blocking restrictions and a defense that conceded 34 to Southern Miss while Crowder's rushing surge regresses.
Won. Kansas State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kansas reproduces enough of its Middle Tennessee offensive execution against weakened cornerback depth while attacking Kansas State's depleted blocking personnel, turning the Wildcats' Houston-level offensive stall into an upset.
Won. James Madison won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Georgia State reproduces its 35-14 Northern Illinois and 42-10 Old Dominion performances after extra preparation, sustaining scoring drives while holding JMU near its 20-27-point outputs against its more competitive FBS opponents.
Lost. Ohio State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ohio State reproduces its documented conference A-game, sustaining Sayin-led scoring while its defense limits Indiana’s rushing support and forces Hoover to carry the offense.
Lost. Houston won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mestemaker reproduces Oklahoma State's recent 40-point conference form, using Houston's depleted defensive middle to sustain drives and turn this into a scoring contest Houston cannot control.
Lost. Auburn won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Auburn repeats its Florida offensive production through Brown’s dual threat while Georgia’s depleted skill depth stalls drives, especially if unconfirmed Dowdell remains unavailable and unconfirmed Womack plays effectively; Womack’s absence would instead weaken Auburn’s pressure and widen Georgia’s margin.
Won. Toledo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Eastern Michigan can reproduce its 38-point Massachusetts performance against the Toledo defense that conceded 48 to Temple, especially if Toledo’s eight-point Buffalo outing reflects continuing offensive problems.
Lost. App State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Singleton plays effectively, App State can reproduce its East Carolina road-winning offense while Coastal's potentially restricted receiving options undermine Bailey's ability to answer.
Won. Clemson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Echols’ reported successful starting debut could represent improvement missing from the sparse results, allowing Charleston Southern to exploit weakened interior and nickel depth while Clemson turnovers supply short fields, though a comparable FBS-level A-game is undocumented.
Won. Western Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Central repeats its Wyoming home performance by holding Western near 10 points and generating enough sustained offense to win, with Western’s kicking uncertainty magnifying the danger in a close rivalry game.
Lost. Boston College won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Boston College reproduces its Rutgers-level offensive output against Pitt's depleted secondary while its rested defense keeps Geriner near the 17-point output of his first start.
Won. TCU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: TCU reproduces its documented defensive containment and finds enough offense against Baylor's depleted secondary, especially if Lagway's ankle limits escape movement or the unconfirmed Walker, Wheeler and Mitchell cases leave Baylor without needed center or defensive-front contributions.
Won. BYU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: BYU repeats its TCU/Iowa State defensive control and exploits Notre Dame's restricted secondary enough to turn a low-possession home game into a narrow win.
Won. Army won.
Documented risk, written before the result: FAU repeats its productive Navy performance after extended preparation, builds an early lead, and makes Army chase points with a backfield whose depth remains constrained by Bartosh’s departure and Nwawuihe’s uncertain status.
Won. Tulane won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Memphis reproduces its recent Charlotte/UAB scoring form against a potentially depleted Tulane defensive rotation, forcing an offense that scored 17 at Army into a chase it cannot sustain.
Lost. UAB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UAB reproduces its 24-20 home win over Navy by keeping the game close defensively, while Young handles the center transition and ECU's restricted receiving depth leaves Williams unable to sustain enough scoring drives.
Won. Western Kentucky won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sam Houston reproduces its competitive Troy and Tulsa performances at home, exploiting WKU's restricted defensive rotation to sustain drives while WKU's protection and receiving limitations stall Glenn.
Lost. Georgia Southern won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Johnson repeats his productive passing performance and Georgia Southern reaches its recent 24-to-31-point conference scoring range while ODU's offense, held to 10 points in consecutive games, cannot keep pace.
Lost. Missouri State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Missouri State reproduces its 24-point offensive output against Marshall or SMU at home, exceeding what Kennesaw State’s generally modest scoring can match.
Won. Utah won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kansas carries its documented 55-0 offensive and defensive execution into stronger competition, protects Marshall despite the center uncertainty, and forces Utah into a turnover-driven chase.
Lost. Purdue won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Purdue repeats its Illinois defensive performance against Minnesota's depleted center position, forcing stalled drives while Ryan Browne produces enough offense at home to win a close game.
Lost. Boise State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fresno repeats its Washington State defensive performance against Boise's constrained supporting cast, letting Mandal play a controlled home game rather than chase a scoring deficit.
Won. Arizona State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hawai'i reproduces its 27-point Stanford outing by exploiting Arizona State's depleted coverage, while the Sun Devils repeat their modest FBS offensive production amid unresolved guard availability.
Won. Western Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kent repeats its recent 13-point defensive performances and DeShields avoids the turnovers that spoiled the Ohio game, turning Western’s inconsistent offense and uncertain depth into a low-scoring upset.
Won. Arizona won.
Documented risk, written before the result: West Virginia repeats its documented 42-point offensive A-game against Arizona’s reduced linebacker depth, while the Wildcats’ depleted skill personnel prevent Fifita from keeping pace on the road.
Won. Ole Miss won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Vanderbilt reproduces its NC State offensive output by exploiting Ole Miss's makeshift corner personnel while limited Lacy usage makes the visitors more dependent on Chambliss sustaining scoring drives.
Won. UNLV won.
Documented risk, written before the result: NDSU repeats its sustained scoring and defensive control from the 33-7 Jacksonville State and 28-0 Wyoming wins, extending possessions against UNLV’s restricted defensive rotation and preventing Arnold from establishing the recent offensive rhythm.
Won. Buffalo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Buffalo could repeat its Western Michigan defensive performance and find enough offense against Toledo's inconsistent defense to steal a close game, especially if Jones's uncertain participation reduces Toledo's receiving options; a Gathings absence would instead make that upset path harder.
Won. Wyoming won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wyoming reproduces the defensive control and offensive execution of its 27-10 Hawai‘i win against a San José State offense that managed only 10 against Fresno State and 20 at Hawai‘i.
Won. USC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Penn State reproduces enough of its early defensive control at Beaver Stadium to exploit USC’s potentially weakened interior protection and keep Becht within a manageable scoring game, although that defensive A-game remains unproven against stronger opposition.
Won. Oregon State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SDSU repeats its 31-point Texas State performance through Denegal against Oregon State’s depleted secondary, while the Beavers reproduce the defensive vulnerability shown against Houston and Texas Tech.
Lost. UCLA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UCLA reproduces its Maryland-level offensive efficiency through settled starter Iamaleava while Oregon’s quarterback uncertainty and depleted offensive support turn possessions into stalled drives.
Won. Oklahoma State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UCF repeats its TCU-level defensive performance against Oklahoma State’s unsettled offensive line, allowing a functional Jenkins to win a low-scoring game despite his injury.
Won. Oklahoma won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oklahoma repeats its Michigan defensive performance against a Texas offense with uncertain supporting-player workloads, keeping the game close enough for one short field to overturn Texas’s modest advantage.
Won. Ohio State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Daniels remains unavailable and Timmons is limited, Maryland could combine disruptive pressure with Washington’s UConn-level offensive execution to generate short fields and an upset, though that performance came against substantially weaker opposition.
Lost. Notre Dame won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stanford reproduces its Georgia Tech scoring performance against Notre Dame’s potentially depleted linebacker and secondary units, then gains enough short fields from turnovers to overcome its documented defensive vulnerability.
Won. Northwestern won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Luster repeats his productive Toledo passing performance while Ball State exploits Northwestern's replacement left guard to stall possessions, with turnovers supplying the additional swing needed for an upset.
Won. North Texas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Charlotte repeats its 21–26 App State competitiveness against UNT’s vulnerable defense and converts Jackson turnovers into short fields; the unconfirmed Ole Miss relocation also risks overstating Charlotte’s weakness if that defeat deserves additional road-context allowance.
Won. Indiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nebraska repeats its documented 31-13 and 48-23 conference performances at home, sustaining protection and scoring drives while making Indiana resemble the team that escaped Northwestern 29-23 rather than the one that overwhelmed Rutgers.
Won. Navy won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tulsa combines the defensive performance demonstrated against Oklahoma State with Hayes’s North Texas scoring production, takes an early lead, and forces Navy’s constrained quarterback rotation into repeated passing situations.
Lost. Wake Forest won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bailey reproduces the Louisville performance and NC State's replacement protection holds, overcoming this small Wake edge; Hoffmann and Johnson contributing would strengthen that path, while their possible absence and any lingering relocation disruption represent downside uncertainty for State rather than established facts.
Lost. Missouri won.
Documented risk, written before the result: A&M reproduces its Arkansas performance through efficient rushing and defensive stops against Missouri’s thin backfield, while any actual preparation disruption behind the UNCONFIRMED scheduling notice could erase this narrow home edge.
Won. Illinois won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Michigan State reproduces its Toledo-level offensive efficiency at home while Illinois’ compromised blocking depth and depleted backfield leave Houser unable to sustain drives.
Lost. Memphis won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UAB reproduces its 20–21 points allowed against Navy and Louisiana, protects Burton well enough to sustain drives, and turns Memphis’s uneven offensive ceiling into a close game it can win.
Won. Miami (OH) won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Watson reproduces the Rutgers offensive performance while Massachusetts forces Miami's inexperienced replacement into a catch-up passing game, with Washington's uncertain availability affecting how much backfield support Watson receives.
Lost. Coastal Carolina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Coastal reproduces its West Virginia scoring performance against Marshall's fragile defense, potentially helped by Clark's absence, while Del Rio-Wilson's offense fails to sustain enough possessions to protect the home advantage.
Lost. Louisiana Tech won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Baker sustains the offense that produced 31 against Army, and Tech exploits Louisiana's depleted defensive depth sufficiently to win another close home game.
Lost. Houston won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Houston repeats its competitive Texas Tech road performance and UCF defensive result, forcing Kansas State's depleted blocking personnel into passing downs, with injured quarterback reserves worsening the consequences if Avery Johnson cannot finish.
Lost. South Carolina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: South Carolina reproduces its 34-point conference scoring form while Florida's limited receiving options contribute to another offensive stall resembling the Missouri loss.
Won. East Carolina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rice repeats its 16-point defensive allowance against UTSA, limits possessions, and gets enough from Brown to beat an ECU offense whose new quarterback has only been tested as its starter against FCS opposition.
Lost. California won.
Documented risk, written before the result: California reproduces its Syracuse defensive performance against Virginia Tech's replacement linemen and generates enough offense against linebacker depth weakened by Ballance's and Williams's absences to win a close home game.
Won. Bowling Green won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sacramento State reproduces its Eastern Michigan offensive output while Bowling Green returns to its documented six- to thirteen-point scoring range, potentially worsened by unavailable receiving or backfield options.
Lost. BYU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Iowa State reproduces its 45-point West Virginia offensive performance through Raynor against BYU's depleted linebacker and safety options, while BYU's diminished rushing support prevents it from keeping pace.
Lost. Army won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Army repeats its competitive FBS rushing-and-possession game, exploits Tulane’s replacement linebacker fits, and leaves an unsettled Tulane offense too few possessions to recover; Nwawuihe’s possible absence would instead thin Army’s rushing rotation, but neither his absence nor recovery is established.
Won. Old Dominion won.
Documented risk, written before the result: ODU reproduces the defensive performance that held East Carolina to 20 points, and Henicle provides enough offense to beat an App State team whose two FBS wins came by only three and five points.
Won. Georgia won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Alabama’s documented high-scoring offense sustains drives through added run gaps and play-action, particularly if Dowdell cannot contribute and Georgia’s other backs remain limited; the unresolved Alabama NCAA item’s realistic documented downside concerns recruiting access, not this game’s lineup.
Won. Eastern Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Akron repeats the sustained scoring shown against Robert Morris by attacking Eastern’s depleted defensive middle and keeping Roggow out of obvious passing situations, although that documented offensive ceiling came against FCS opposition.
Won. Louisville won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Florida State reproduces its Virginia-level defensive execution while Daniels attacks Louisville's depleted coverage personnel, turning Louisville's recurring inability to hold FBS opponents below 30 into another defeat.
Won. Western Kentucky won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Missouri State repeats its 24-point offensive output against stronger opposition while WKU’s offense remains near the 13 points it managed against New Mexico State, producing a straightforward road win.
Push.
Documented risk, written before the result: USF repeats its low-scoring defensive A-game against UTSA's unsettled blocking unit and gives Van Buren a manageable scoring requirement, much as its defense did in the 14-6 road win at Bowling Green.
Won. Liberty won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sam Houston reproduces the defense that held Troy and Tulsa to 24 and 23 points, with its extra preparation and potentially disrupted Liberty blocking or coaching turning the game into a few decisive possessions for Locke.
Won. Troy won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Southern Miss repeats its Tulane performance with Lyddy, keeps Troy near its recent 10-to-17-point offensive output, and exploits Troy's depleted defensive and potentially depleted tight-end depth to win a close game.
Won. Jacksonville State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kennesaw repeats its Arkansas State defensive performance at home and exploits Jacksonville's depleted linebacker rotation for enough sustained drives to win a low-scoring game.
Lost. San Diego State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SDSU wins if Denegal sustains enough of the offense demonstrated against Portland State to exploit a Texas State defense that allowed UTSA 31 and North Texas 35, while Texas State’s skill-position limitations stall its own scoring.
Won. Indiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rutgers reproduces its 35-point USC offense against Indiana’s uncertain cornerback depth and potentially reduced defensive-line rotation if Daley and Wyatt cannot play, while Indiana’s injured backfield stalls enough possessions to make a home upset possible.
Won. Louisiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Owens pairs his documented passing productivity with better ball security, exploiting Louisiana's depleted second level enough to overcome Arkansas State's restricted rushing support.
Lost. San José State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Weaver repeats the productive road offense shown against Eastern Michigan, exploiting Hawai'i's defensive personnel uncertainty while holding an offense that scored just six against UNLV and ten against Wyoming below comeback range.
Lost. Baylor won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Baylor repeats its Auburn/Colorado defensive performance against ASU's depleted blocking personnel and Lagway supplies enough scoring to win; unconfirmed Walker and Mitchell availability could weaken that path through protection or defensive-front depth.
Won. Arizona won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cincinnati repeats its productive Kansas State performance against Arizona's depleted safety rotation, with any actual eligibility-related losses further weakening Arizona's ability to sustain drives, defend the run or finish scoring opportunities.
Won. Wake Forest won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stanford repeats its offensive A-game from the 34-27 Georgia Tech win against a Wake defense that conceded 36 at Purdue, turning Wake’s recent narrow-win pattern into an outright loss.
Won. USC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Washington repeats its Washington State defensive performance while Williams sustains drives against USC’s depleted linebacker group and potentially limited tackles, exploiting a defense that conceded 35 to Rutgers and 41 to Oregon.
Won. UNLV won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cal repeats its controlled 21-18 road win at Syracuse, sustaining possessions against UNLV’s reduced defensive-line depth while Arnold’s offense produces another low-output performance.
Won. UAB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Johnson carries his documented passing efficiency into this matchup while UAB’s protection and timing problems stall drives, allowing Samford to sustain enough possessions to win.
Won. Tennessee won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Auburn reproduces its Florida scoring performance through Brown against depleted safeties while Tennessee's weakened interior protection stalls drives; Womack's unconfirmed availability adds uncertainty, with his absence potentially easing Tennessee's protection burden and his effective participation strengthening Auburn's upset path.
Won. BYU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: TCU reproduces its Arkansas State defensive containment by disrupting BYU's inexperienced right-tackle replacements, keeping Craig within one score and making BYU's depleted defensive depth decisive late.
Lost. Temple won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Temple reproduces its 48-point Toledo offense while potential USF front-seven limitations help Brown sustain drives, and disrupted USF tackle continuity stalls the home offense.
Won. Kentucky won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sellers reproduces South Carolina's 34-point SEC offensive performance against Kentucky's uncertain secondary and containment, while limitations to Minchey's receivers and supporting backs prevent Kentucky from keeping pace.
Won. South Alabama won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Armenta repeats his efficient FAU passing performance, ULM sustains the competitiveness shown in its six-point loss at UAB, and South Alabama’s unsettled quarterback situation stalls enough possessions for an upset.
Won. SMU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Boston College repeats its 28-point Rutgers performance against an SMU defense allowing 29.7 points per FBS game, while SMU's uncertain kicking leaves enough possessions unrewarded for an upset.
Won. UTSA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rice reproduces its 21-to-24-point FBS offensive output through sustained possessions while disrupting UTSA’s protection enough to prevent another scoring surge.
Lost. Northwestern won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Northwestern repeats its Colorado defensive A-game, suppresses Penn State’s depleted receiving options and gives Chiles enough possessions to exploit the visitors’ defensive availability constraints at home.
Won. North Dakota State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wyoming repeats its Hawai‘i performance by containing the run and keeping Hughes in manageable situations, with any continuing limitations to NDSU lineman Josh Magin potentially weakening the home team’s central offensive advantage.
Won. Notre Dame won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UNC repeats its TCU defensive performance, disrupts Carr behind a depleted line and sustains possessions against potentially limited Viliamu-Asa and thin safety depth; the separate UNCONFIRMED CSC matter adds possible preparation disruption for UNC, but no established sanctions or player removals warrant a numerical penalty.
Won. New Mexico won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Colson and Jones translate their FCS offensive success into sustained FBS drives while New Mexico’s depleted receiving options stall possessions; Barnes, if eligible and participating, could strengthen UTEP’s resistance, whereas his absence could worsen its coverage and tackling.
Lost. Nebraska won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Maryland reproduces its UConn road performance while Nebraska’s guard and backfield limitations disrupt sustained drives, with a possible Williams return improving Maryland’s offensive balance but remaining unconfirmed.
Lost. NC State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bailey and Scott reproduce NC State’s recent offensive success while Kienholz is limited or unavailable; the UNCONFIRMED Hoffmann and Jamel Johnson situations could instead reduce NC State’s receiving and coverage depth if unavailable, while the UNCONFIRMED Virginia relocation item establishes no present travel burden, so these risks receive no assumed absence, return, or travel adjustment.
Lost. Missouri won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Missouri repeats its balanced scoring outcome at Kansas while Florida’s receiving limitations stall drives; the UNCONFIRMED he-news-000692 notice adds a possible preparation or scheduling-disruption risk, but its withheld details establish neither an affected side nor a current effect, so even its plausible adverse scenario receives no directional margin adjustment.
Lost. Minnesota won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Minnesota repeats its Washington-level scoring performance while exploiting Michigan's compromised tackles to stall Underwood's offense, although its depleted center position makes that upset path less dependable.
Won. Eastern Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Massachusetts repeats its Rutgers-level offensive performance against Eastern Michigan’s Manning-less defense, while Devereaux’s absence limits the visitors’ ability to answer.
Won. LSU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: An ineffective or absent Leavitt could create short fields while Strong exploits LSU's losses at linebacker and safety, although the dossier supplies no current McNeese A-game demonstrating that upset sequence.
Lost. Ohio won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kent State repeats its Ball State defensive performance and forces Ohio into passing situations, while Ohio safety DJ Walker’s unresolved availability could worsen its defensive vulnerability if he cannot play.
Lost. Kansas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gagliano reproduces Middle Tennessee’s 26–27-point performances against Marshall and Nevada by exploiting Kansas’s unsettled defensive personnel, while Kansas’s depleted offensive supporting cast stalls drives and leaves the visitor within one decisive possession.
Lost. James Madison won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Del Rio-Wilson reproduces his documented passing-and-running production against stronger opposition, exploiting JMU’s limited linebacker depth and forcing Coleman into a scoring contest without a verified healthy Evans alternative.
Won. Iowa State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: West Virginia repeats its Virginia offensive performance against Iowa State’s secondary without Awls, especially if Singletary remains unavailable, while the Cyclones again struggle to sustain scoring against power-conference opposition.
Lost. Purdue won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Browne reproduces Purdue's productive Wake Forest/UCLA offense against Illinois' unsettled defensive leadership while Illinois' depleted blocking depth prevents Houser from keeping pace.
Won. Houston won.
Documented risk, written before the result: UCF repeats its 21-13 TCU performance, containing Houston’s depleted receiving options while Jenkins produces enough scoring drives, with any continuing Terrill limitation potentially helping UCF generate pressure.
Lost. Georgia State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Georgia State repeats its Northern Illinois offensive execution with Brown and Dorsey while Old Dominion's uncertain quarterback situation produces stalled possessions, a credible home-winning path even if Murray cannot participate.
Won. Georgia won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Vanderbilt reproduces its NC State scoring performance with an effective Curtis while Georgia’s depleted edge rotation fails to end drives and the unconfirmed worst case of Dowdell unavailable plus Frazier limited undermines possession control.
Won. Florida Atlantic won.
Documented risk, written before the result: FAU repeats its 16-point offensive performance against FIU while Texas Southern generates short fields, although the supplied Texas Southern performance does not establish that as a likely, repeatable winning path.
Lost. Oregon State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oregon State repeats its 33-7 UTEP performance against a CSU defense that just conceded 59 to UTSA, allowing Atkinson to control the game despite the Beavers’ depleted secondary.
Won. Georgia Southern won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Coastal reproduces its 24-point performance at West Virginia against a Southern defense that allowed 31 to Jacksonville State and 42 to Houston, giving Bailey a credible home winning path.
Lost. Miami won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Clemson repeats its recent defensive control and Reynolds exploits Miami's depleted secondary enough to turn its documented 24-to-28-point offensive production into a home win.
Won. Memphis won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Charlotte reproduces its App State competitiveness, sustains possessions at home and capitalizes on Memphis mistakes; the unconfirmed Ole Miss relocation could also make Charlotte’s earlier defeat less informative than it appears, although that alone does not establish an upset path.
Won. Central Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Akron carries some of its 45-point FCS offensive execution into this matchup against CMU’s depleted secondary while CMU repeats the offensive struggles seen against Colgate, although that Akron performance has not translated against FBS opponents.
Won. Western Michigan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Buffalo's clearest home upset path is repeating its documented 31-point offensive ceiling against Western Michigan's depleted defensive personnel while holding the Broncos near their seven-point Boise State output; Gathings's unconfirmed status could instead narrow Buffalo's receiving options, but neither his absence nor full availability is assumed.
Won. Boise State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Utah State reproduces its Washington defensive performance while Boise’s offensive-line and skill-position restrictions stall possessions, allowing Brosterhous to win a low-scoring game with a few timely scoring drives.
Won. Toledo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Toledo repeats its Temple defensive breakdown and gives Ball State short fields, allowing the home offense to approach its 41-point FCS performance despite its much weaker documented FBS production.
Won. Pittsburgh won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Virginia Tech repeats its Maryland and Boston College formula of sufficient offense and competitive defense, using its extra-gap rushing against Pittsburgh's depleted defensive front to control manageable downs while Pittsburgh's reduced receiving options struggle in their first road setting.
Won. North Texas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tulsa repeats its Oklahoma State defensive performance, limits Jackson’s possessions and exploits a North Texas defense that conceded 49 to Texas State, with Hayes’ reported availability expanding its quarterback options.
Lost. New Mexico State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: NMSU reproduces the competitiveness of its 17-34 Florida State performance while exploiting WKU's shuffled protection, keeping a modest scoring requirement within reach of whichever quarterback plays.
Won. Liberty won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Delaware repeats its Coastal defensive performance with effective quarterback play, while Liberty's UNCONFIRMED Anthony availability and staff suspensions carry the realistic downside of weakened edge blocking and disrupted preparation; neither is assumed active or resolved, and neither earns an additional numerical penalty.
Won. Oregon State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Colson carries UTEP’s demonstrated FCS scoring ceiling into this easier home matchup against Oregon State’s depleted defensive depth, with Barnes available and effective in the worst plausible version for the pick.
Won. Florida Atlantic won.
Documented risk, written before the result: ULM repeats its competitive 20-26 road performance against UAB, uses Carlisle’s keepers to sustain drives, and holds FAU near its latest 16-point offensive output.
Lost. Massachusetts won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Massachusetts repeats its Rutgers performance with Watson, sustaining scoring against a Sacramento State team that has conceded 77 points across two FBS games.
Won. SMU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Missouri State reproduces its competitive Marshall offense while SMU's defensive vulnerability persists, with possession-changing mistakes supplying the additional swing needed for an upset.
Won. Fresno State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rice reproduces its competitive Western Michigan-level performance, sustains option possessions and turns Fresno's offensive-line limitations into stalled drives, leaving a short game within reach.
Lost. Wyoming won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wyoming reproduces its Northern Colorado game's low-scoring defensive outcome at home, forcing an Ashlock-less Hawai'i offense into stalled drives and a narrow finish.
Won. Boise State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Western Michigan repeats its Michigan-level defensive resistance at home and its Rice-level scoring output against a Boise defense that conceded 24 to FCS South Dakota.
Lost. Oklahoma State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oklahoma State reproduces its Oregon-game scoring performance, with improved protection from Hanson's announced return and West Virginia's depleted defensive front allowing Mestemaker enough time to win a scoring contest.
Lost. Utah State won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Utah State repeats its Washington defensive performance at home, keeping Troy’s modest offense within reach of a few successful Brosterhous possessions.
Won. UTSA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Colorado State reproduces its balanced scoring and defensive suppression against Wyoming while exploiting UTSA's potentially vulnerable tackles, preventing McCown from sustaining possessions.
Won. Oregon won.
Documented risk, written before the result: USC repeats its documented 42-point performance against FBS Rutgers, sustaining drives against an Oregon defense that surrendered 39 at Oklahoma State while Oregon's depleted protection and receiving groups struggle to answer.
Lost. UCF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jenkins repeats the offense’s 44-point Georgia State performance at home while UCF’s defense reproduces its 12-point Pittsburgh showing, exposing TCU’s own 10-point output against its lone power-conference opponent.
Won. Tulane won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Southern Miss reproduces its Alcorn State combination of scoring and defensive control against Tulane's inconsistent offense, although that A-game remains unproven against FBS opposition.
Won. Toledo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SDSU could exploit the defensive vulnerability Toledo demonstrated against Temple, although its documented high-scoring A-game came against FCS Portland State and has not translated against FBS competition.
