T Money’s most recent graded Tennis picks
These are graded model outputs; historical replay and closing-price rows are not described as preposted wagers. Losing results are never removed. T Money has 2601 graded picks on the record.
Kayla Day vs Antonia Ruzic: price sim took Kayla Day
2026-10-21 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Antonia Ruzic won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ruzic's return is her proven strength (54% of second-serve return points won, 5 breaks of Badosa, 44% of return games won across her 125 run), and it can attack Day's erratic second serve (DFs on 5.5% of service points over 3 months; 10 DF against Samsonova, 5 against Joint), dragging her into the kind of three-set grind she lost to Joint after converting only 3 of 14 break points.
Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez: price sim took Ann Li
2026-10-21 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Ann Li won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sönmez repeats the H2H formula — attacking Li's shaky second serve (51% of first serves in and 5 DFs in R1; DFs at 5.2% of service points over 3mo), holding at H2H levels (80% at Mérida) and winning another tight decider while Li plays a sixth match in ten days in a third straight tournament week.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk: price sim took Marta Kostyuk at -149
2026-10-21 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Ekaterina Alexandrova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The wrist may still be limiting Kostyuk's serve and forehand as it did in Wuhan (59% of first-serve points won), letting a match-sharp Alexandrova win with the flat serve-plus-one game that beat Sabalenka and Noskova on hard, while Kostyuk fades after the first set as she did against Samsonova and Sakkari.
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Gauthier Onclin: price sim took Jan-Lennard Struff
2026-10-21 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Jan-Lennard Struff won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Onclin's documented strength (62% of second-serve return points won, plus 17 break chances created against big-serving Wendelken on these Brussels courts four days ago) feeds on Struff's 50% second serve if Struff's first-serve percentage slips toward the 58% six-month level, turning a tiebreak-prone match into a coin flip in front of a home crowd.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikhail Kukushkin: price sim took Stefanos Tsitsipas
2026-10-21 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Stefanos Tsitsipas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kukushkin's most realistic path is the R32 template: stay close on serve with the farewell crowd behind him, drag sets to tie-breaks, and exploit Tsitsipas's modest 16% hard-court return-games-won rate and roughly one day of rest after a two-hour match, since the Kovacevic and Fritz wins both turned on a handful of points.
Clement Chidekh vs Jacob Fearnley: price sim took Clement Chidekh
2026-10-21 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Clement Chidekh won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fearnley's documented hard-court A-game, a steady hold (76% over 12mo at tour level and 89% over his last four stat-covered matches, with DFs down to 1.8%), keeps him out of break trouble and drags Chidekh into tight sets and tiebreaks, where Chidekh lost five deciding sets in his tour-level/qualifying loss table and just lost two tiebreaks to Kym.
Mariano Navone vs Tallon Griekspoor: price sim took Tallon Griekspoor
2026-10-21 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Tallon Griekspoor won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Navone's improved hard serve holds against Griekspoor's 12% return-game rate, the match goes to tiebreaks, and Navone's rally tolerance plus his second-serve return punish Griekspoor's 4–5% double-fault rate and post-injury nerves — the steady-baseliner route that beat him in Shanghai (Kotov) and Montreal (Merida Aguilar 6-3 6-1).
Sorana Cirstea vs Sara Bejlek: price sim took Sorana Cirstea at -172
2026-10-21 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Sara Bejlek won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bejlek's documented hard-court A-game, returning first-strike serves (9-4 against them on hard, with Sabalenka and Keys beaten in August), goes after a Cirstea second serve now winning about 40% and pulls a player just back from a calf injury into long rallies and a deciding set, the same kind of failure to close out that cost Cirstea the Wuhan match from 6-1 4-0 up.
Francisco Cerundolo vs Martin Damm: price sim took Francisco Cerundolo
2026-10-21 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Francisco Cerundolo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Damm repeats his best hard-court result, the serve-led straight-sets wins over Medvedev and Hanfmann (7-5 6-3 both times), against a player who is 5-8 and holds only 73% against big servers on hard: one stolen tiebreak and one break end it before a deciding set can expose Damm's weakness there.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Facundo Diaz Acosta: price sim took Nikoloz Basilashvili
2026-10-21 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Nikoloz Basilashvili won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Diaz Acosta repeats his Tirante pattern (71% first serves in, never broken) while his second-serve return (55% over 12 months, 65% against Tirante) feeds on Basilashvili's 54% first-serve-in / 6% double-fault second serve, and a 34-year-old who retired 14 days ago fades in a long final set in his fourth match in five days.
Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev: price sim took Andrey Rublev
2026-10-21 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. Adrian Mannarino won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mannarino repeats the Vukic serving day (71–72% first serves in, one break point faced) and drags a match-rusty Rublev, 12 days removed from going 0-for-2 on break points against Sakamoto, into tiebreak sets, the same tight three-set route lefties Shang and Tabilo used to beat Rublev on hard this year.
Remy Bertola vs David Goffin: price sim took Remy Bertola
2026-10-21 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. David Goffin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Goffin is rested and backed by a home farewell crowd, recovers enough of his hard-court baseline game to keep the sets tight, and Bertola, who lost 3 of 4 Brussels tiebreaks and went down 5-7 5-7 at Roanne, loses the close sets again.
Tomas Machac vs Zangar Nurlanuly: price sim took Tomas Machac
2026-10-21 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Tomas Machac won.
Documented risk, written before the result: On his tour debut in front of a home Almaty crowd, Nurlanuly swings freely at Machac's post-injury second serve and drags him into a deciding set, the same shape as Machac's 1-6 opening set against Zhang and his three-set Jinan loss to Draxl, where the slumping favourite has recently been beatable.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci: price sim took Tomas Martin Etcheverry
2026-10-21 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. Mattia Bellucci won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bellucci repeats the Rome script from five months ago (H2H, cross-surface: 76% vs 62% first-serve points won, 5/7 break points converted, 44 winners to 11) and, riding his Jinan rhythm, out-hits a passive, slumping Etcheverry the way Svrcina did with 40 winners on Oct 10.
Damir Dzumhur vs Dino Prizmic: price sim took Dino Prizmic
2026-10-21 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. Damir Dzumhur won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dzumhur, sharp after a 5-0 title week and 2-0 against Prizmic on hard, uses his 51% second-serve return against Prizmic's recent second-serve and double-fault slide (37% of second-serve points won, 6 double faults and 7 breaks against him in the Saint-Tropez semifinal) and grinds it into a deciding set.
Katie Boulter vs Viktorija Golubic: price sim took Katie Boulter
2026-10-21 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Katie Boulter won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Golubic's documented strengths, 71% first serves in with few double faults plus a 57% second-serve return, could keep breaking a Boulter second serve that has produced 6–7 DF per match and 13 BP faced in R32, dragging this into a Cleveland-2025-style deciding set that Golubic edges.
Anastasia Zakharova vs Marie Bouzkova: price sim took Marie Bouzkova at -370
2026-10-21 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Marie Bouzkova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Zakharova serves like she did in Ningbo Q1 (85% first serves in, 74% won), which keeps her weak second serve out of play, and drags Bouzkova into long rallies where Bouzkova's own soft second serve (42% won over the last month) gives up breaks; that is Zakharova's best documented hard split, against mid-level servers like Bouzkova (75% hold / 39% return games won, 8-3), and the level behind her early-2026 wins over Pliskova (p83) and Kalinskaya (p76).
James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi: price sim took Luciano Darderi
2026-10-21 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. James Duckworth won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Duckworth's documented Hard strength is the serve (79% 12-month Hard hold, 9 of 10 in the first round), and if it holds up against a Darderi who wins only 17% of return games against mid-level servers, just went 0 for 10 on return games against Tsitsipas, and is playing a first match in 11 days after a bye, the sets go to tiebreaks that Duckworth, already a match into the event, can steal.
Leylah Fernandez vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich: price sim took Leylah Fernandez at -227
2026-10-20 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Leylah Fernandez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sasnovich repeats Rakhimova's Beijing win: she attacks Fernandez's double-fault-prone second serve with her 55% second-serve return, keeps holding at her Ningbo rate (16/18 service games), and Fernandez loses a tight deciding set while carrying the heavier recent workload.
Ashlyn Krueger vs Lanlana Tararudee: price sim took Lanlana Tararudee
2026-10-20 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Ashlyn Krueger won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Krueger repeats the Wuhan pattern from a week ago on the same surface — landing first serves at close to her rate against Tjen while attacking Tararudee's second serves, which come on about half of points. That is a proven head-to-head path, not a long shot.
Talia Gibson vs Sinja Kraus: price sim took Talia Gibson
2026-10-20 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Talia Gibson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gibson's 1st-serve percentage stays in its recent low-50s, and Kraus's 55% second-serve return and 46% overall return-point rate turn the match into long baseline exchanges with repeated breaks — the steady-returner template that beat Gibson 5-7 0-6 (Sorribes Tormo) and 1-6 4-6 (Sasnovich) within the last three weeks.
Raphael Collignon vs Nishesh Basavareddy: price sim took Nishesh Basavareddy
2026-10-20 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. Raphael Collignon won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Collignon's serve proves close to its 12-month level (76% of first-serve points won, 9.3% aces) at the home event where he reached the 2025 semifinal; that would blunt Basavareddy's weak hard-court return and turn this into a tiebreak match decided by Collignon's higher ceiling.
Karen Khachanov vs Rei Sakamoto: price sim took Karen Khachanov
2026-10-20 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Karen Khachanov won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sakamoto's serve (13 aces against both de Minaur and Diallo, no break conceded to Rublev) keeps sets on serve into tiebreaks, which is how Khachanov's recent hard-court losses have gone (Hurkacz 7-6(2), Zverev 7-6(7) 7-6(6), Atmane 7-6(3), Kovacevic 7-6(2) in a deciding set).
Hugo Gaston vs Jacob Fearnley: price sim took Jacob Fearnley
2026-10-20 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Jacob Fearnley won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gaston's documented strengths — drop-shot and lob variety plus winning 55% of points on second-serve returns — could turn Fearnley's error-prone second serve (8.0% double faults over 12 months) into cheap breaks, the same crafty approach Džumhur used to beat him two days ago, with Fearnley on a one-day turnaround after five matches in six days and an unexplained 1 Oct retirement behind him.
Toby Samuel vs Zizou Bergs: price sim took Zizou Bergs
2026-10-20 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Zizou Bergs won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Samuel holds easily against Bergs' 17% hard return-game rate and wins a match decided by tiebreaks, repeating Eastbourne where he served for the match at a set and 5-4 up, while jet lag and the shoulder/elbow problem treated six days ago weaken the serve that Bergs' hard-court game depends on.
Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Clement Chidekh: price sim took Botic Van De Zandschulp
2026-10-20 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. Clement Chidekh won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Indoor hard is Chidekh's best surface: if his recent serving (84–88% of first-serve points won in his last three charted matches) holds up against tour-level returning, with rhythm from two on-site qualifying wins, then Van de Zandschulp's slipping first-serve effectiveness (67.5% over 1 month, 13 DFs in Shanghai), modest indoor record (5-9 in 2025) and long Asia swing could turn this into a tiebreak coin-flip.
Timofey Skatov vs Fabian Marozsan: price sim took Fabian Marozsan
2026-10-20 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Fabian Marozsan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: With home-crowd support, Skatov plays the steady, rally-extending game Svajda and Jacquet used, attacks a Marozsan second serve that won only 40% of points in Shanghai, and steals tight sets; Marozsan lost the tiebreaks in his last two defeats (12-14 and 2-7).
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Marcos Giron: price sim took Jan-Lennard Struff
2026-10-20 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Jan-Lennard Struff won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Giron's documented hard-court strength is returning (21% of return games won on hard; broke Baez five times), and Struff's second serve has been fragile (35% won vs Medvedev in Shanghai, 5.1% double faults per service point over 3 months), so the realest way Struff loses is a tight match settled in tiebreaks where Giron's second-serve returns flip one or two service games.
Mariano Navone vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: price sim took Juan Manuel Cerundolo
2026-10-20 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. Mariano Navone won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Navone's most realistic path is the grind behind that 5-2 Challenger-level H2H lead (latest: the 2025 Braunschweig clay final, 6-3 7-5): Navone lands 73% of first serves, which limits second-serve exposure, while Cerundolo's first-serve-in rate has fallen to 49% over 3 months, handing Navone's 53% second-serve return a heavy load of second serves (Cerundolo wins 51–52% of them) and pulling the match into the long baseline battle Navone prefers.
Tallon Griekspoor vs Max Schoenhaus: price sim took Tallon Griekspoor
2026-10-20 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Tallon Griekspoor won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Griekspoor repeats the Shanghai script — a flat return day (25% of return points) in a serve-dominated match that the lower-ranked player closes out in a tiebreak — while Schoenhaus serves at his Rennes-Q1 level (74% of first serves in, 80% won).
Alycia Parks vs Sara Bejlek: price sim took Sara Bejlek at -625
2026-10-20 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Sara Bejlek won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Parks' real path is her best serving: if she lands about 60% of first serves and keeps double faults in single digits, her 8.4% ace rate and 68% first-serve points won can force tiebreak-heavy sets like her wins over Shnaider and Kraus, while her 54% second-serve return win rate attacks Bejlek's 48% second-serve points won during Bejlek's 2-4 dip.
Roman Safiullin vs Sho Shimabukuro: price sim took Roman Safiullin
2026-10-20 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. Sho Shimabukuro won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shimabukuro's first serve, the one real relative strength (serve index 0.75 vs 0.65, 9.2% aces, 75% first-serve points won over 12 months), clicks after 13 days off and turns the sets into tiebreaks against a Safiullin playing a second match in three days and a 13th in four weeks.
Terence Atmane vs Rinky Hijikata: price sim took Rinky Hijikata
2026-10-20 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. Terence Atmane won.
Documented risk, written before the result: A rested, healthy Atmane brings his proven Hard-court game (a lefty first serve winning 75% of points plus forehand-first short points, as in his Jodar, Tiafoe and Auger-Aliassime wins) and takes two tight sets off a Hijikata who is 3-5 against mid-tier servers on Hard, whose first-serve win rate has slipped to 65% over 3 months, and who recently lost to lefty big hitters Shapovalov and Humbert.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Kovacevic: price sim took Stefanos Tsitsipas
2026-10-20 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Stefanos Tsitsipas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kovacevic repeats his Aug 26 Hard A-game against this same opponent: first-strike serving (13 aces, 3/3 break points saved), holding through a tiebreak-heavy match (I model about four sets in ten reaching 6-6) and winning the tiebreaks, as he did 7-1 at Winston-Salem.
Katarzyna Kawa vs Daria Snigur: price sim took Daria Snigur
2026-10-20 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Katarzyna Kawa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Snigur's illness may not be over. She won 9/29 service points and held no service games on Oct 18, and her first serve was already slipping against Tjen (48.9% of points won). That would let a fresh Kawa repeat her best play in this matchup: return pressure and a fast opening set (6-1 twice in Ningbo qualifying, 6-3 in Beijing) that a weakened Snigur can't recover from.
Polina Kudermetova vs Cristina Bucsa: price sim took Cristina Bucsa at -118
2026-10-19 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Polina Kudermetova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kudermetova repeats Washington: her first serve and flat hitting attack Bucsa's soft serve (1.5% aces, 62% of first-serve points won), while Bucsa keeps missing break points (1 of 12 against Jovic, the missed 6-5 chance against Sun) and lets Kudermetova escape double-fault-prone service games, helped by two matches already played at this venue.
Yulia Putintseva vs Diana Shnaider: price sim took Diana Shnaider at -435
2026-10-19 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Diana Shnaider won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shnaider's second serve has been leaking (≈35–43% of second-serve points won, with 5 double faults in each of the last two Wuhan matches) and Shnaider has admitted to late-season mental fatigue. That gives Putintseva, a 58% second-serve returner who has beaten p88 opponents and beat Shnaider in 2023 and in a three-set 2025 Adelaide QF, a route into long rallies and a deciding set, the way Ostapenko came back from 2-5 to win 7-6 6-1.
Jasmine Paolini vs Anhelina Kalinina: price sim took Jasmine Paolini at -278
2026-10-19 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Jasmine Paolini won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Kalinina's thigh holds up, Paolini's post-injury serve (DF on 6.1% of service points, 39% of 2nd-serve points won over 3 months, 12/40 against Kartal) could give Kalinina's best documented weapon, a 56% 12-month second-serve return, enough breaks to win a scrappy, break-heavy deciding set.
Zeynep Sonmez vs Maya Joint: price sim took Zeynep Sonmez
2026-10-19 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Zeynep Sonmez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Joint's documented hard-court A-game (70% of first serves in and 68% won against Day, a straight-set win over p93 Cirstea) holds up, and her 56% second-serve return attacks Sonmez's slumping second serve (41.8% won over 3 months; 37–45% in her last three matches), the same way Inglis beat her 6-4 6-4 on Sept 30.
Magda Linette vs Claire Liu: price sim took Claire Liu
2026-10-19 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Magda Linette won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Liu's double faults against tour-level players (8 against Stoiana, 6 against Tararudee, 6.2% of serve points over her last 11 hard matches) feed the one part of Linette's game that survived the slump, her return (44.5% of return points won recently, 51% against second serves over 12 months), so a break-heavy match won by Linette's experience in tight sets is the most realistic way Liu loses — exactly how her three recent straight-set tour-level losses played out.
Mary Stoiana vs Oleksandra Oliynykova: price sim took Mary Stoiana
2026-10-19 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Mary Stoiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The ankle has settled over 12 days and Oliynykova plays a documented top-50 counter-punching game (72% first serves in, 46% return points won, long moonball rallies) against a Stoiana serve that was broken 9 times in 22 service games by players ranked ~436 and lower.
Ann Li vs Emerson Jones: price sim took Ann Li
2026-10-19 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Ann Li won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Li's high-variance first-strike game (49 UE against Swiatek, 46% of second-serve points won, DF rising to 4.5–5.2% of service points over the last 1–3 months) leaks breaks to Jones's genuinely solid return (43% of return points, about 54% against second serves, 36% of return games won against first-strike servers on hard), while Jones's improved October serving holds up against a tour-level returner — most dangerous if Li is flat after the Wuhan run and the travel.
Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Mikhail Kukushkin: price sim took Stefanos Sakellaridis
2026-10-19 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. Mikhail Kukushkin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: A fresh Kukushkin, lifted by a home crowd at his farewell on indoor hard (his best career surface), uses early-ball returns to pull a Sakellaridis playing his third straight day into long baseline rallies, the pattern by which Shimizu and Skatov beat him three weeks ago.
Alex Michelsen vs Andrea Guerrieri: price sim took Alex Michelsen
2026-10-19 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Alex Michelsen won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Guerrieri repeats his Damm-match A-game, a lefty first-serve day (13 aces, 73% first-serve points won) plus 38–45% return points won, aimed at Michelsen's second serve (DFs up to 5.1% of service points over three months) while Michelsen lacks match rhythm after two straight losses, and it becomes the tiebreak-heavy three-setter Guerrieri just won in qualifying.
Martin Damm vs Yannick Hanfmann: price sim took Yannick Hanfmann
2026-10-19 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. Martin Damm won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Damm's best tennis, a 198cm left-handed first-strike serve (16.2% aces, 89% of service games held on hard) that has beaten Medvedev and Hurkacz on hard, shuts out Hanfmann's return and turns the match into tiebreaks that a big server can win whatever the return gap.
Jaume Munar vs Federico Cinà: price sim took Jaume Munar
2026-10-19 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Jaume Munar won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cinà serves at the Chengdu level (84% first-serve points won, no break points faced against Ugo Carabelli) and pushes sets to tiebreaks, as in the Bertola win, while a rusty Munar's second serve (44% won over the last month, 39% against Brooksby) gives up the one break that decides it.
Marin Cilic vs Nikoloz Basilashvili: price sim took Nikoloz Basilashvili
2026-10-19 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Nikoloz Basilashvili won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cilic serves the way he did in their October 2025 Shanghai meeting (6-3 7-6(5); 17 aces, 89% of 1st-serve points won, Basilashvili held to 22% of return points), pushing sets into tiebreaks, while Basilashvili's left knee, which forced him to retire 12 days ago, is tested in his third match in three days. The 2021 grass meeting is stale and I gave it no weight.
Marie Bouzkova vs Kamilla Rakhimova: price sim took Marie Bouzkova at -312
2026-10-19 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Marie Bouzkova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rakhimova's documented hard-court strength is the return (38% of return games won, 59% of second-serve return points), and it meets Bouzkova's weakening second serve (37% won over the last month) and recent late fades (lost from a set up to Chwalinska, deciding-set losses to Zheng and Valentova), so Rakhimova wins a three-setter full of breaks on the rhythm of two rounds already played here.
Aleksandar Vukic vs Adrian Mannarino: price sim took Adrian Mannarino
2026-10-19 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Adrian Mannarino won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Vukic repeats his 2024 template, using his bigger serve (79% holds on hard, 9.4% aces) to stay on serve against Mannarino's modest 15% return-game rate, then winning the tiebreaks as he did in the first set of both tour meetings, against a 38-year-old who says he is declining physically.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Daria Kasatkina — T Money took Aliaksandra Sasnovich at -139
2026-10-19 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Aliaksandra Sasnovich won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kasatkina's real strength is return pressure from a defensive base (she wins 46% of return games on hard and beat Sorribes Tormo mainly by winning 58% of return points), so if Sasnovich's flat hitting turns erratic (against grinders she faces 0.93 break points per service game, and she lost summer qualifiers to Arango and Valdmannova), the match could become a break-trading contest that a well-rested Kasatkina, the 2024 champion here, can win.
Sorana Cirstea vs Han Shi: price sim took Sorana Cirstea
2026-10-19 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Sorana Cirstea won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cirstea's serve since the calf injury (6 DF, 56% of service points vs Guo) keeps getting broken while Shi repeats her Eala-level serving (78% of first-serve points won) in front of a home Zhejiang crowd, replaying Guo's Wuhan comeback from a set and 0-4 down.
James Duckworth vs Miomir Kecmanovic: price sim took Miomir Kecmanovic
2026-10-19 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. James Duckworth won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kecmanovic's serve has slipped (3mo first-serve points won 68.6%, second 47.8%; only 58% of service points won vs Mannarino), so if Duckworth lands first serves at his 73–74% win rate behind 9.3% aces, sets drift into tiebreaks — the shape of Kecmanovic's recent narrow losses to Basilashvili and Mannarino.
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Facundo Diaz Acosta: price sim took Thiago Agustin Tirante
2026-10-19 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. Facundo Diaz Acosta won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Diaz Acosta's realest path is the return: 55% of second-serve return points won against Tirante's dipping first-serve rate (54% over 3 months, 48% in set 2 vs Jodar) and higher double-fault rate (5.1%), combined with the lefty patterns that beat Tirante on hard (Tien, Mannarino), could drag this into the tiebreak-heavy grind Diaz Acosta keeps reaching on hard.
Jelena Ostapenko vs Belinda Bencic: price sim took Belinda Bencic at -154
2026-10-18 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Belinda Bencic won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ostapenko repeats her Wuhan hitting (32–46 winners and 7–10 aces against Shnaider and Pegula) against a post-hip Bencic whose serve is giving up cheap breaks (1-month first-serve points won 61%, double faults 7.9%) and who wins only 30% of return games against big servers on hard. That's the same flat-hitter pattern as her losses to Kartal and Ann Li.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Hanyu Guo: price sim took Ekaterina Alexandrova
2026-10-18 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Ekaterina Alexandrova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Another Fernandez-style error day from Alexandrova (sub-50% first serves, 6–9 double faults, 40-plus unforced errors) would give Guo's one real weapon, the second-serve return (57% of second-serve return points won over 12 months, 64% vs Volynets), enough looks to drag a home-crowd match into a deciding set, where Guo won twice in Wuhan.
Peyton Stearns vs Katerina Siniakova: price sim took Peyton Stearns
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Katerina Siniakova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Siniakova's main strength is the return (38% of first-serve return points won vs Stearns' 34%), which turned a 6-1 3-0 Stearns lead into a 1-6 6-3 6-4 loss in their only hard-court meeting (Cleveland 2024), and with Stearns' current serve dip and 1-5 deciding-set record since July, a break-heavy match that Siniakova steals late is a real path.
Paula Badosa vs Antonia Ruzic: price sim took Paula Badosa
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Antonia Ruzic won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Badosa's second serve is the realest way she loses: 42% of second-serve points won and a 9.5% double-fault rate (9 DFs and 49.6% of serve points won in her last win) give a steady, low-DF Ruzic (4.6% DFs, 54% of second-serve return points won) a path to a long, break-trading three-setter like Badosa's hard losses to Putintseva and Podoroska, with another of her 2026 leg-related retirements as the tail risk.
Moyuka Uchijima vs Ena Shibahara: price sim took Moyuka Uchijima
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Moyuka Uchijima won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Uchijima has not fully recovered from whatever ended her Wuhan match, or her second-serve trouble continues (double faults on 11% of service points over the last month), and a confident, match-hardened Shibahara holds behind her steady 65% first serve and doubles-honed net play, takes the free points and wins a tight deciding set, where Uchijima is 2-5 since late July.
Shuai Zhang vs Tereza Valentova: price sim took Tereza Valentova
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Tereza Valentova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: In her first match since the late-August hip injury, rust or a flare-up could make Valentova's already leaky second serve worse (5.8% double faults; over the last 3 months, 6.8% double faults and 40.9% second-serve points won). That would feed Zhang's documented hard-court A-game: she wins 57% of points returning second serves and serves flat and aggressively (8 aces with 73% first serves in against Day, 74% first-serve points won against Cocciaretto).
Katie Boulter vs Himeno Sakatsume: price sim took Katie Boulter
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Katie Boulter won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sakatsume's proven hard-court game — clean holds (DF 3.1%) and 54% of second-serve return points won — turns Boulter's shaky second serve (about 7 DFs a match over 6 months) into repeated breaks; that is the same grind that won their 2023 meeting in Japan, now with the Osaka crowd behind her.
Alexandra Eala vs Diane Parry: price sim took Alexandra Eala at -303
2026-10-18 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Alexandra Eala won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Parry's best weapon, the first-strike serve (72% holds, 68% of first-serve points won and 6% aces over 12 months), lands the way Han Shi's did in Wuhan and shuts down Eala's return (30% of return points won there), and Eala's shaky second serve (6.5 DF a match over the last month) gives up a late break in a deciding set, as in all three recent losses after winning set 1.
Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens: price sim took Elise Mertens at -141
2026-10-18 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Leylah Fernandez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fernandez, on the player's best surface and a month off a title, could use the left-handed serve and a 53% second-serve return to pressure Mertens' second serve (45% won) and force a decider, as in the 2023 Guadalajara win, while Mertens plays at the flat level seen against Snigur.
Ashlyn Krueger vs Janice Tjen: price sim took Janice Tjen
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Ashlyn Krueger won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Krueger's first serve and stronger first-serve return repeat the June meeting (6-1 6-3, 75% of first-serve points won) against Tjen's low recent first-serve percentage (54.8% over 1 month) and weak second serve (36–38% won in Wuhan).
Viktorija Golubic vs Mai Hontama: price sim took Viktorija Golubic
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Viktorija Golubic won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hontama's best hard-court game is out-returning a soft server, as in her 6-4 6-0 win over Parry, and it lines up with Golubic's weak hold (61% over 12 months, 6 of 16 against Kasatkina, 42% on 2nd serve last month), so a home-crowd grind where Golubic's 2nd serve cracks is the realest upset path.
Lilli Tagger vs Liudmila Samsonova: price sim took Liudmila Samsonova
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Lilli Tagger won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tagger repeats her Linz game plan against this same opponent (82-63 on total points, 22/32 on Samsonova's second serve, 44 Samsonova unforced errors), attacks a second serve that is still weak (40% won over the last month, about 6 DF per match, 5/14 holds vs Svitolina), and Samsonova fades after set one, as she did in 7 of her last 15 losses.
Kaitlin Quevedo vs Lanlana Tararudee: price sim took Lanlana Tararudee
2026-10-18 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Lanlana Tararudee won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Quevedo's proven strengths are fresh legs, title confidence and second-serve returning (59–63% of those points won in the last three São Paulo matches). Those could punish Tararudee's roughly 50% first-serve rate and 6–8 DF days, as McNally and Krueger did in Wuhan, and turn this into a trade of breaks that Quevedo, the better raw hard-court holder (72% vs 68%), wins.
Nishesh Basavareddy vs Aziz Dougaz: price sim took Nishesh Basavareddy
2026-10-18 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Nishesh Basavareddy won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dougaz repeats how he beat Sonego and Gentzsch this month: about 70% of left-handed first serves in, roughly 73% won, sets staying on serve until he steals a tiebreak or deciding set, while Basavareddy's double faults (10 in his last 120 service points) hand over the one break that settles a set.
Martin Damm vs Andrea Guerrieri: price sim took Martin Damm
2026-10-18 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. Andrea Guerrieri won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Guerrieri's proven strengths are high-volume returning and grit in deciding sets (three deciders won since August, De Jong pushed to two tiebreaks), and they line up with Damm's proven weaknesses: a weak return (0 breaks in 16 return games vs Kotov) and repeated fades after leading (Hurkacz, Fils, Marozsan, Mannarino, and Tiafoe from two sets to one up). That could turn this into a coin flip decided by tiebreaks and a final set.
Clement Chidekh vs Gauthier Onclin: price sim took Clement Chidekh
2026-10-18 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Clement Chidekh won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Onclin repeats the Q1 serving (72% of first-serve points won, 10/12 holds) with the home crowd behind him and turns the 62% second-serve return on Chidekh's 45% tour-level second-serve win rate, pushing sets into tiebreaks like the ones Chidekh just lost to Kym.
Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal: price sim took Sonay Kartal at -137
2026-10-18 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Maja Chwalinska won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chwalinska's current hard A-game, 78–79% first serves in (QF/SF) plus a 56% second-serve return, attacks Kartal's softer second serve since the comeback (49.4% won, 3.2% DF over the last month), while the left-handed variety pulls Kartal into the lefty/crafty patterns in Kartal's loss table.
Remy Bertola vs Federico Cinà: price sim took Federico Cinà
2026-10-18 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Federico Cinà won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bertola repeats his Q1 serving (80% and 75% of first- and second-serve points won, no break points faced, the same indoor serve behind his Quimper final and Basel qualifying run) and keeps attacking Cinà's second serve (41–48% won against Molcan, Muller and Schwaerzler; broken 7 times by Molcan), turning this into tiebreaks he can steal.
Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Sakellaridis: price sim took Alexander Shevchenko
2026-10-18 · Almaty · Prediction
Lost. Stefanos Sakellaridis won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sakellaridis's best game is first-strike serving (87%/72% serve points won in Q1, 76% on first serve vs Smith), and Shevchenko won only 4% of return games against first-strike servers on hard over the last 12 months. A 198 cm server holding through against a tired Shevchenko could push the sets into tiebreaks and take them.
Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: price sim took Rafael Jodar at -144
2026-10-18 · Shanghai · Prediction
Lost. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Davidovich Fokina repeats his serving since the injury (11/11 holds with 77% first serves in the Chengdu final, 82% first serves vs Zverev) and, fresher after a day off and about three fewer hours on court, holds comfortably while Jodar drops the first set again (he did in 4 of 5 matches here) on his third match day in a row and can't pull off a fifth comeback.
Kamilla Rakhimova vs Tatiana Prozorova: price sim took Kamilla Rakhimova
2026-10-18 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Kamilla Rakhimova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Prozorova reproduces the Singapore A-game, a cleaner serve plus the 52-winner aggression that beat Top-20 Eala. That would mean repeatedly breaking Rakhimova's error-prone second serve and winning a tight decider, the same kind of upset Rakhimova suffered in her last two hard-court qualifying finals (Shi Han, Timofeeva).
Roman Safiullin vs Ilia Simakin: price sim took Roman Safiullin
2026-10-18 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Roman Safiullin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Simakin repeats his documented A-game of 193 cm first-serve holding, as in the 11-ace, 0-DF, 77%/63% Almaty Q1, and drags the match into tiebreaks; that is the path behind Safiullin's tight three-set losses to tall servers (Grenier on hard, Mpetshi Perricard on grass) and the set he dropped 6-7 to Ivashka.
Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto: price sim took Rei Sakamoto
2026-10-18 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Rei Sakamoto won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Diallo repeats his Q1 serving (10 aces, 86%/80% serve points won, no double faults), and since neither man breaks much on hard (13% vs 16% of return games), the match becomes a tiebreak shoot-out his 201cm first strike can steal — Jacquet won more points than Sakamoto in Shanghai qualifying and lost only through two tiebreaks.
Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili: price sim took Nikoloz Basilashvili
2026-10-18 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Nikoloz Basilashvili won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Walton plays the documented hard-court A-game: clean holds (86% against mid-level servers on hard, 0 DF in Q1) against a returner who breaks grinders only 9% of the time, steady pressure on Basilashvili's shaky second serve in a tight two-setter, and longer rallies that test a left knee which forced a retirement 11 days ago, now on back-to-back days at age 34.
Alina Korneeva vs Han Shi: price sim took Alina Korneeva
2026-10-18 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Han Shi won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Han Shi repeats her Wuhan A-game: a first-strike serve and forehand winning 70%+ of first-serve points, while attacking Korneeva's 44% second-serve-won, roughly 5%-DF delivery in front of a home crowd. A recurrence of Korneeva's undisclosed Seoul problem is the secondary path.
Anhelina Kalinina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich: price sim took Aliaksandra Sasnovich
2026-10-18 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Aliaksandra Sasnovich won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kalinina attacks Sasnovich's weak second serve (43-45% of points won over 6-12 months) with a 56% second-serve return rate and drags the match into a long, error-filled third set like Cluj 2025, where Kalinina led 5-3.
Alycia Parks vs Yulia Putintseva: price sim took Yulia Putintseva
2026-10-18 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Yulia Putintseva won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Parks's first-strike serve (index 0.93, and 8 aces even in Q1) gets back to its 12-month level while Putintseva's return games won drop to the 31% recorded against first-strike servers on Hard; Parks then holds comfortably and steals a break a set off a 1.9%-ace serve, with Putintseva playing a sixth match in nine days after the Asian Games.
Polina Kudermetova vs Anastasia Zakharova: price sim took Anastasia Zakharova
2026-10-17 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Polina Kudermetova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kudermetova's first serve fires as it did in Q1 (24/26 first-serve points, 9 aces) against Zakharova's weak first-serve return (34%; 0-6 against first-strike servers on hard), repeating the pattern of her 7-6(8) 6-0 hard-court win in 2024.
Katarzyna Kawa vs Daria Snigur: price sim took Daria Snigur
2026-10-17 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Katarzyna Kawa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Snigur's serve is shaky right now (7 DFs and five breaks conceded to a #889, six breaks vs Tjen), so a fresher Kawa, who took the first set and broke Snigur six times in Beijing, could start fast again and this time win the decider that went 7-5 to Snigur 18 days ago.
Mary Stoiana vs Sayaka Ishii: price sim took Mary Stoiana
2026-10-17 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Mary Stoiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stoiana's serve keeps leaking breaks (0/4 break points saved and 5 double faults against #436 Matsuda), and a fresh Ishii serves as well as she did against Avanesyan. Ishii's best WTA results came at home in Japan (Tokyo 2024 quarterfinal from qualifying), and she could take the tight sets in a break-trading match.
Emerson Jones vs Taylah Preston: price sim took Taylah Preston
2026-10-17 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Emerson Jones won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jones beat Preston on hard both times they met, in tight sets each time (7-5 4-6 7-6(1) in May, 6-4 7-6(3) in 2024), and if her improved recent first serve holds while Preston stays flat (the 1-6 0-6 loss, 3 double faults in 24 serve points at Osaka), she can win the close sets again.
Kayla Day vs Maya Joint: price sim took Kayla Day
2026-10-17 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Maya Joint won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Joint's return-first game wins 56% of second-serve return points against Day's 48% second-serve points won and recent double-fault spikes (10 vs Samsonova), as seen in Joint's Q1 (about 51% of return points, 5 of 6 break points), and that could turn this into the kind of counterpuncher grind (Pareja, Brengle) already in Day's loss table.
Tom Gentzsch vs Aziz Dougaz: price sim took Aziz Dougaz
2026-10-17 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Aziz Dougaz won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gentzsch's best tennis is his first serve (75% won at tour level; 82% won with 18% aces against Martin Tiffon at the US Open) plus his better return, and that can keep pressuring a Dougaz serve that has faced 9 or more break points against every solid hard-court opponent since US Open qualifying (16 against Cina), while Dougaz's weak return can't break back.
Martin Damm vs Buvaysar Gadamauri: price sim took Martin Damm
2026-10-17 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Martin Damm won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Damm's weak return (12% of hard-court return games won) lets Gadamauri hold his way into tiebreaks and a decider, where Damm has lost five straight since late August, four after leading; that's a plausible upset route but not a likely one, since Gadamauri's documented A-game is Challenger clay, not indoor hard against a first-strike lefty.
Kimmer Coppejans vs Andrea Guerrieri: price sim took Andrea Guerrieri
2026-10-17 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Andrea Guerrieri won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Coppejans repeats his Shanghai serving in his home event (73%+ of first-serve points won, 15.5% aces against Basavareddy) and attacks Guerrieri's low first-serve percentage and double-fault-prone second serve, as Kasnikowski and Holmgren did when they held Guerrieri to 53-54% of first-serve points won in two of his last three matches.
Edas Butvilas vs Nishesh Basavareddy: price sim took Nishesh Basavareddy
2026-10-17 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Nishesh Basavareddy won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Butvilas serves as against Dimitrov (no breaks conceded, 7 aces, 1 DF), pushing sets to tiebreaks while attacking Basavareddy's DF-prone second serve. That is the tall-server pattern in Basavareddy's hard loss table, and it's how Butvilas won their 2024 hard-court meeting.
Remy Bertola vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: price sim took Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
2026-10-17 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. Remy Bertola won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bertola holds routinely against Mpetshi Perricard's very weak return (0/5 on break points vs Donnet), and the match goes to tiebreaks, where Mpetshi Perricard has lost four in a row and his self-described mindset problem can decide it, exactly how Donnet beat him four days ago.
Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Clement Chidekh: price sim took Clement Chidekh
2026-10-17 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Clement Chidekh won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bailly's documented A-game is this home event (main draw in 2024 and 2025, with wins over Royer #70 and Altmaier #51 last year), so a fresh, crowd-lifted Bailly holding cleanly and stealing tight sets or tiebreaks off Chidekh's double-fault-prone second serve, as Kym did at Roanne, is the realest path.
Alexander Shevchenko vs Daniil Glinka: price sim took Alexander Shevchenko
2026-10-17 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Alexander Shevchenko won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shevchenko played the Jinan QF on 16 Oct and then travelled, so Glinka's lefty serve and Villena rhythm could produce a hold-dominated match decided in tiebreaks, like the Pau 2nd-set tiebreak Glinka won and the 16 Oct loss to lefty Bellucci where Shevchenko converted 0 of 2 break points.
Harry Wendelken vs Gauthier Onclin: price sim took Harry Wendelken
2026-10-17 · Brussels · Prediction
Lost. Gauthier Onclin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wendelken's leaky second serve (49.6% won and a 5.0% DF rate on recent hard courts; 33% won with 4 DF in his last match), plus 16 days without a match, could feed Onclin's documented strength, second-serve return pressure (62% at ATP level), and turn a low-ace match into a break-trading grind that Onclin wins on home soil.
Josef Schwaerzler Joel vs Federico Cinà: price sim took Federico Cinà
2026-10-17 · Brussels · Prediction
Won. Federico Cinà won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Schwärzler's indoor A-game (8-3 indoors in 2026, including a Lugano final and a Mouilleron SF) is a left-handed first serve that keeps holds short and wins tiebreaks (5 of 5 during the Mazovia title), and against Cinà's 2026 trouble with left-handers it could turn this into a tiebreak coin-flip that Cinà's return edge never gets to decide.
Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev: price sim took Daniil Medvedev at -179
2026-10-17 · Shanghai · Prediction
Lost. Rafael Jodar won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jodar's Shanghai A-game holds up — a high first-serve percentage with about 90% holds, plus his 52% second-serve return — and lands on Medvedev's weakest shot (36% second-serve points, 8 DF and 14 BPs faced vs Paul) to steal two tight sets.
Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska: price sim took Iga Swiatek at -714
2026-10-17 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Maja Chwalinska won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chwalinska's return-led counterpunching (46% of return points won this week, including 21/41 against Jovic's first serve) attacks Swiatek's second serve (50% won over 12mo; 17 break points faced against Frech and Krueger), and if Chwalinska's career-best serving week (12/13 holds against Sakkari) carries over, an in-form, steady opponent can win a tight match, as Mertens did in Beijing last week and Linette and Sakkari did in three sets on hard earlier in 2026.
Luka Pavlovic vs Ilia Simakin: price sim took Ilia Simakin
2026-10-17 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Ilia Simakin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pavlovic's documented A-game is his first serve (91% and 89% of first-serve points won vs Schoolkate and Fancutt this week, a 13.1% ace rate over 12 months, and the opening set of their match won 6-4 on 78% of service points); it could carry him into tiebreaks while Simakin's recently leaky second serve (27% won with 7 DF vs Ugo Carabelli, 42% vs Landaluce) gives up the one break per set he needs.
Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Petr Bar Biryukov: price sim took Stefanos Sakellaridis
2026-10-17 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Stefanos Sakellaridis won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bar Biryukov's documented hard-court strength is his left-handed serve, which held 12/12 against Ilagan and 11/11 against Imamura; against Sakellaridis's weak return (1 break in 15 return games against K. Smith) that can turn this into two tiebreaks, which is how Smith beat him on 10-13.
Roman Safiullin vs Ilya Ivashka: price sim took Roman Safiullin
2026-10-17 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Roman Safiullin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ivashka repeats his Shanghai Challenger serving on his best surface (69% first serves in, 76% of first-serve points and 62% of second-serve points won, 3 double faults in four matches), Safiullin's ordinary hard-court return game (17% of return games won over 12 months) can't break, and a match of tiebreaks swings on a few points, as Safiullin's close losses to Grenier and Mpetshi Perricard did.
Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova: price sim took Kamilla Rakhimova
2026-10-17 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Kamilla Rakhimova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Yastremska repeats the first two Beijing matches (78% of first serves in, one break point faced in 18 service games) and attacks Rakhimova's slipping second serve (25–38% won against Volynets, Kudermetova and Jovic; 8.1% DFs), making it a short power match where Rakhimova's return never gets going.
Mayar Sherif vs Tatiana Prozorova: price sim took Tatiana Prozorova
2026-10-17 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Tatiana Prozorova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The likeliest way Prozorova loses is her own inconsistency: she lost at least one set in each of her last six completed singles matches and gives away points with a 44% second serve and 3.4% double faults, so Sherif's steady serving (77% first serves in) and clay-honed variety could steal a set and turn it into a three-set coin flip.
Adam Walton vs Beibit Zhukayev: price sim took Adam Walton
2026-10-17 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Adam Walton won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Zhukayev's A-game is a 198cm first-strike serve in front of a home crowd on indoor hard, the profile that beat Walton 6-7 6-4 7-6 at Little Rock in 2023. If he finds it, he could turn sets into tiebreaks against a Walton who broke only twice in 29 return games across his Te and Cilic losses.
Gabriel Diallo vs Harold Mayot: price sim took Gabriel Diallo
2026-10-17 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Gabriel Diallo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Diallo's left leg or match sharpness isn't back in his first match in about 10.5 weeks (his last return from injury, at Roland Garros, ended in another retirement), and Mayot's documented hard-court game — steady returning, rhythm from about 17 September matches, the same profile that won both tiebreaks against Diallo at Quimper — drags the match into long rallies and tiebreaks that Mayot wins.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Taro Daniel: price sim took Nikoloz Basilashvili
2026-10-17 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Nikoloz Basilashvili won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Basilashvili's taped left knee (his second retirement in four weeks) limits his movement, and Daniel's steady game (1.3% double faults, 68% first serves in, 53% of second-serve return points won) drags him into long rallies against his 49% second serve and 6% double-fault rate, the grinder pattern behind his 1-4 hard record, for a three-set or retirement win.
Rei Sakamoto vs Amir Omarkhanov: price sim took Rei Sakamoto
2026-10-17 · Almaty · Prediction
Won. Rei Sakamoto won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sakamoto starts sluggishly after his big Shanghai week, playing a first-round qualifier against a home wildcard with nothing to lose, and Omarkhanov's steady M15-finalist baseline game drags sets into tiebreaks; Sakamoto's record there is shaky (tiebreaks lost to de Minaur, Sonego, Kopriva and Vukic, and one-set leads lost to Arnaldi and Medvedev).
Magdalena Frech vs Han Shi: price sim took Magdalena Frech
2026-10-17 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Han Shi won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Han repeats the Eala performance: bold first serves (78% won) and 8–9 break chances a match against Frech's weak recent serve (61% of first-serve and 43% of second-serve points won over the last month), winning a short, serve-led match before fatigue matters, with home-province support.
Alina Korneeva vs Jiayang Dong: price sim took Alina Korneeva
2026-10-17 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Alina Korneeva won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The undisclosed Seoul injury, her second own-side stoppage in six weeks after the 2024 wrist surgery and 2025 adductor tear, could flare up or leave her rusty after 21 days off, producing a retirement or an error-heavy serving day that lets a free-swinging home wildcard take sets. Dong has no proven top game at this level, so the realistic upset path runs through Korneeva's fitness, not Dong's tennis.
Anhelina Kalinina vs Simona Waltert: price sim took Anhelina Kalinina
2026-10-17 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Anhelina Kalinina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kalinina's current hard-court slump (double faults on 8.7% of serve points over the last month, only 52% of first serves won against Sakatsume, and blown leads against Kartal, Tjen and Navarro) gives Waltert's best hard-court game, aggressive winner-hitting (44 against Podoroska) plus clutch break-point defence (9 of 11 saved against Marcinko), a clear route through a tight third set.
Anna Bondar vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich: price sim took Aliaksandra Sasnovich
2026-10-17 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Aliaksandra Sasnovich won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bondar's one documented hard-court strength fits this matchup: against MID servers like Sasnovich she held 71% and broke 36% (6-2, 89 service games), while Sasnovich has held only 58% against MID servers (4-5), so if Sasnovich's fragile second serve (45% won, 4.6% double-fault rate, broken on 4 of 5 break points vs Kalieva) leaks the way Ruse's did in Seoul, Bondar can win the break exchanges.
Sofia Kenin vs Mei Yamaguchi: price sim took Sofia Kenin
2026-10-17 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Sofia Kenin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kenin's serve breaks down again as in Wuhan (0/7 holds) and Yamaguchi's one proven strength, return pressure (42% of return games won, 55% of points on second-serve returns), turns this into a break-trading third set in front of a home crowd, like the matches Kenin has lost to low-serve grinders on hard (1-6, 55% holds).
Haruka Kaji vs Taylah Preston: price sim took Taylah Preston
2026-10-17 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Taylah Preston won.
Documented risk, written before the result: On a loose second-serve day (double faults on 6.4–7.5% of service points over the last 1–3 months, 7 DF against both Sakatsume and Townsend), Preston lets Kaji, who still created 6 break points in July, drag the match into a long baseline three-setter, the way Broadus (W100 Evansville) and Selekhmeteva (Philadelphia 125) beat Preston in three sets this summer.
Jelena Ostapenko vs Sonay Kartal: price sim took Sonay Kartal at -139
2026-10-16 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Sonay Kartal won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ostapenko repeats her Shnaider-QF level (7 aces, 73% / 53% on serve, 65% won on the opponent's second serve, 32 winners) and attacks Kartal's modest second serve early — the same power-hitter route by which Rybakina, Noskova, Anisimova and Ostapenko herself (Eastbourne 2025, grass, 16 months ago; H2H 1-1) have beaten Kartal.
Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: price sim took Alexander Zverev at -400
2026-10-16 · Shanghai · Prediction
Lost. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The recurring ankle (it flared against Wu, Halys and Bublik) slows Zverev enough for Davidovich Fokina's hard-court strengths, attacking second serves (50% of second-serve return points over 12 months, 58% against Hurkacz) and this week's tiebreak nerve (two final-set tiebreaks won, 15/19 break points saved), to force a third set, which is where Zverev lost to Djokovic, Paul and Griekspoor on hard after winning the first set.
Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets: price sim took Katie Volynets
2026-10-16 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Katarzyna Kawa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Volynets has played about 748 minutes in 14 days, including back-to-back 3-hour matches on Oct 13–14 where her serve sagged against Guo (49% of service points won). She is 3-5 in hard-court deciding sets since late July, and she lost the opening set in the H2H and in 3 of her 4 Wuhan matches. The realistic upset path is a rested Kawa (17 days off) landing enough first serves (she won 69–70% behind them in Beijing) to take set one and drag Volynets into a decider.
Daria Snigur vs Yu Jun Lin: price sim took Daria Snigur
2026-10-16 · Ningbo · Prediction
Won. Daria Snigur won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The realest path is a flat Snigur, two days after the Wuhan loss and with a leaky second serve, getting dragged into a break-trading deciding set by a rested home wildcard, but Lin's documented level (0 breaks and 2 games won against Hunter) makes this a stretch, not a likely path.
Anastasia Zakharova vs Yuliia Starodubtseva: price sim took Yuliia Starodubtseva
2026-10-16 · Ningbo · Prediction
Lost. Anastasia Zakharova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Zakharova repeats the Eastbourne plan (83% of first serves in, steady neutral rallies) and takes the match to a third set, where Zakharova is 11-5 this year and Starodubtseva 7-15, with Starodubtseva's last two losses both coming from a set up.
Elina Avanesyan vs Sayaka Ishii: price sim took Elina Avanesyan
2026-10-16 · Osaka · Prediction
Lost. Sayaka Ishii won.
Documented risk, written before the result: After 30 idle days, Avanesyan's weak second serve and double faults (25% second-serve points won, 5 DF in her last match) let a match-sharp home wildcard win the tight sets, as Sara Saito did to her at Utsubo in 2024 (7-6 6-4); a home hard-court run like her Tokyo 2024 QF is Ishii's documented A-game.
Mary Stoiana vs Rinko Matsuda: price sim took Mary Stoiana
2026-10-16 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Mary Stoiana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Matsuda repeats her Kawa match (74% first serves in, 3 DF, 10 of 15 service games held, more total points than a #129 opponent) against Stoiana's slipping serve (1-month 1st won 51.9%, DF 5.8%) after 29 days without a match, turning it into a break-trading third set in front of a home crowd.
Kyoka Okamura vs Maya Joint: price sim took Maya Joint
2026-10-16 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Maya Joint won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Joint's serve breaks down again (over the last month she got 58% of first serves in and double-faulted on 5.6% of service points, with 9 DF against Sawangkaew), and a confident Okamura playing at home, who won 72–76% of service points in her best Suzhou wins, drags her into the kind of break-heavy third set Joint has lost 7 of 12 times since mid-July and nearly lost to the No. 284 Yao.
Kayla Day vs Ena Koike: price sim took Kayla Day
2026-10-16 · Osaka · Prediction
Won. Kayla Day won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Day beating herself, not a proven Koike strength. Her double faults are rising (4.3% of serve points YTD, 5.6% over 3 months, 10 against Samsonova), and she faced 14 break points against Kalieva. Coming off 17 days without a match and after flat losses like Van Impe 2-6 4-6, she could let a home-crowd Koike, who grinds out ITF-level wins, take a tight two-setter.
Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek: price sim took Iga Swiatek at -556
2026-10-16 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Iga Swiatek won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Li repeats her Wuhan first-serve level (60%+ in, about 73% won, 8–11 aces), so Swiatek rarely gets second serves to attack, as when Mertens won 7-6(0) 6-3 nine days ago without facing a break point, and Li's flat forehand takes sets decided by tiebreaks on the surface where Swiatek is only 9-5 against first-strike servers.
Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska: price sim took Maria Sakkari at -154
2026-10-16 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Maja Chwalinska won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chwalinska repeats her Roland Garros win, where Sakkari made 36 unforced errors in sets 2 and 3: her return attacks Sakkari's shaky second serve and rising double faults (broken seven times in Wuhan), her drop shots and lobs draw errors, and her roughly 85% Wuhan hold rate stops Sakkari breaking back.
Elina Svitolina vs Sonay Kartal: price sim took Elina Svitolina at -213
2026-10-16 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Sonay Kartal won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kartal's documented A-game this week (5 DFs in three matches, 81% holds, 16/26 breaks) meets a Svitolina serve broken 9 times in 22 games here, on a third straight match day after 217 minutes over two days, which could repeat Auckland, where Kartal led 5-3 in the deciding set.
Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev: price sim took Daniil Medvedev at -190
2026-10-15 · Shanghai · Prediction
Won. Daniil Medvedev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Paul's 2026 hard-court A-game — 86% holds plus the clutch play that beat Zverev in Cincinnati and saved 8 of 9 break points against Bergs — keeps both sets on serve, and a single tiebreak decided by Medvedev's weak second serve (48% won, 5.3% double faults over 12 months), coming in Medvedev's third straight week of matches, flips a short best-of-3.
Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud: price sim took Rafael Jodar at -152
2026-10-15 · Shanghai · Prediction
Won. Rafael Jodar won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ruud's best hard-court weapon is his serve (88% holds over 12 months, 25/25 in Shanghai), and it could stop Jodar's return, which wins only 17–22% of return games against good servers on hard. Jodar dropped the first set in all three rounds here; if he starts slowly again, a fresher Ruud can win it on one break or in tiebreaks.
Janice Tjen vs Ann Li: price sim took Ann Li at -175
2026-10-15 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Ann Li won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Li could come out flat after a 147-minute, 10-match-point career-best win, and Tjen's strong first-strike serve (index 0.81; 72% of first-serve points won over the last month) could hold enough to force tiebreaks. Li's hard-court return drops to 23% of games won against first-strike servers (4-5 over 12 months).
Ashlyn Krueger vs Iga Swiatek: price sim took Iga Swiatek at -1111
2026-10-15 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Iga Swiatek won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Krueger's big-serve A-game (9 aces against Zhang, 65–68% of first-serve points won) on a day when enough first serves land to hide the second serve could push sets into tiebreaks, where Swiatek has looked loose lately (lost a 7-6(0) set to Mertens six days ago and needed over an hour for the first set against Frech).
Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur: price sim took Alexander Zverev at -217
2026-10-15 · Shanghai · Prediction
Won. Alexander Zverev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: De Minaur's return (39% of return points won, 53% against second serves) and rally tolerance drag a sore-ankled Zverev into long exchanges and pressure his second serve. That is how De Minaur won their last two Hard meetings, including the 26 Sep 2026 comeback after Zverev double-faulted while serving for the match.
Jasmine Paolini vs Sonay Kartal: price sim took Sonay Kartal at +114
2026-10-15 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Sonay Kartal won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Paolini returns well against mid-index servers like Kartal (index 0.66) on hard: 45% of return games won, 6-3 over 12mo. That return can pressure Kartal's post-return second serve (46% won) on her second straight day, the same third-match-in-a-few-days spot where she lost 4-6 1-6 to Charaeva in Beijing.
Iva Jovic vs Maja Chwalinska: price sim took Iva Jovic at -333
2026-10-15 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Maja Chwalinska won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chwalinska keeps up the Sept–Oct level and repeats the Bouzkova-in-Cincinnati pattern, using left-handed slice, drop shots and steady returning to stretch rallies and attack Jovic's second serve (49% won) until Jovic's break leads slip away in tight sets.
Arthur Gea vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: price sim took Arthur Gea at -101
2026-10-15 · Shanghai · Prediction
Lost. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: ADF's documented hard-court A-game is steady, near-zero-DF holding (86% hard hold, every service game held in Chengdu, 87% this week); it can keep sets on serve into tie-breaks, where Gea's second serve (50% won, 5.5% DF over 12 months) is the leak and ADF has already won three tie-breaks this week, two of them in deciders.
Elina Svitolina vs Hanyu Guo: price sim took Elina Svitolina
2026-10-15 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Elina Svitolina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Guo's aggressive return and baseline game (48 winners and 8 breaks vs Volynets), backed by a home crowd, goes after Svitolina's leaky second serve (33% won, 7 double faults vs Samsonova) and turns the match into a break-trading deciding set, the same way she beat Cirstea.
Maria Sakkari vs Mia Pohankova: price sim took Maria Sakkari at -227
2026-10-14 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Maria Sakkari won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pohankova's documented A-game is her serve on hard (81% hold, 23/24 at Wuhan), and Sakkari wins only 30% of return games against first-strike servers (4-5 record), so sets could stay on serve and turn on a tiebreak or one late break — exactly where Sakkari's 3–5 double faults a match and her habit of losing after winning the first set (Starodubtseva, Chwalinska, Zheng, Swiatek) hurt her.
Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider — T Money took Diana Shnaider at +112
2026-10-14 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Diana Shnaider won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Muchova's best hard-court tennis wins on serve, as in the 14-ace, 12-of-14-holds win over Samsonova ten days ago; that would shut down Shnaider's return (28% of return games vs first-strike servers on hard), while Muchova's 45% return-game rate against weak servers goes after Shnaider's serve (2.1% aces, 4.5% double faults), and Muchova is unbeaten in tiebreaks in 2026 if sets get tight.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li: price sim took Aryna Sabalenka at -769
2026-10-14 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Ann Li won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Li reproduces her Miami/Bencic first-strike level (12 aces vs Bencic; "serving incredible" per Sabalenka in March) while Sabalenka's serve repeats its Beijing wobble, turning a serve-dominated match into tiebreak coin-flips.
Ashlyn Krueger vs Lanlana Tararudee — T Money took Lanlana Tararudee at -111
2026-10-14 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Ashlyn Krueger won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Krueger serves as well as against Zhang (9 aces, 71% of first-serve points won), and Tararudee's ~50% first-serve-in rate and double faults (8 against McNally two days ago) give Krueger's 52% second-serve return a way in. That would make it a serve-dominated match decided in tiebreaks, where Krueger's higher ceiling shows (career-high No. 29, Wimbledon fourth round this year).
Katie Volynets vs Hanyu Guo: price sim took Katie Volynets
2026-10-14 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Hanyu Guo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Guo repeats the level behind Guo's two best hard wins (Korneeva p88; Cirstea p94 a day ago, with 6/11 break points converted, an 8-6 tiebreak and a 7-5 third set) and pulls a break-heavy match into tiebreaks or a deciding set just as Volynets' 388 singles minutes in four days start to show — no rest day after a 3h06 match, and first serves in falling 86%→78%→70% across the three rounds.
Janice Tjen vs Daria Snigur: price sim took Daria Snigur at -161
2026-10-14 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Janice Tjen won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tjen's documented A-game, the first-strike hard serve that hit 13 aces and saved 12/16 break points against Kalinina, holds well enough to force tiebreaks against a Snigur on her second straight day, whose own soft serve (1.9% aces, 44% second-serve points won, 5 DF against Mertens) gives up the one break that decides it.
Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula: price sim took Jessica Pegula at -244
2026-10-14 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Jelena Ostapenko won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ostapenko, sharp from Seoul, Beijing and her Wuhan opener, repeats her Indian Wells first set and her 6-4 6-2 win in Beijing 2023: she lands first serves, attacks Pegula's second serve early in Pegula's first match since Sept 10, and closes out a short best-of-3 before Pegula finds her timing.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev: price sim took Daniil Medvedev at -182
2026-10-13 · Shanghai · Prediction
Won. Daniil Medvedev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tsitsipas repeats his Doha 2026 hard-court pattern: a first serve winning ~80% (80–84% in all three Shanghai rounds) plus forehand and net pressure that left Medvedev without a single break point. He'd pair that with attacks on a Medvedev second serve that has won only 39–48% this week, with 10 double faults.
Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs: price sim took Tommy Paul at -215
2026-10-13 · Shanghai · Prediction
Won. Tommy Paul won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bergs keeps serving at his Shanghai level (77–86% of first-serve points won, 4 break points faced in 27 service games). His attacking game then cashes in on Paul's leaky holds this week (12 break points faced in 17 service games), producing the kind of one-break or tiebreak finish he just won against Alcaraz.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud: price sim took Felix Auger-Aliassime at -129
2026-10-13 · Shanghai · Prediction
Lost. Casper Ruud won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ruud repeats this week's serving (every service game held, 89% of first-serve points won against Tien) in a close-hold match that goes to tiebreaks, where FAA's error volume (42 unforced errors against Ugo Carabelli) and poor break-point conversion (2 of 14) hand Ruud the deciding points.
Caty McNally vs Karolina Muchova: price sim took Karolina Muchova at -417
2026-10-13 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Karolina Muchova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Muchova's post-surgery volatility, with first serves in around 57% and error spikes (50 UE against Osaka, 32-60 points against Bartunkova), could give McNally's above-average return (45% of return points won, 55% against second serves) enough second serves to drag this into a long three-setter like Ostrava 2022.
Rafael Jodar vs Botic Van De Zandschulp: price sim took Rafael Jodar at -206
2026-10-13 · Shanghai · Prediction
Won. Rafael Jodar won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Botic repeats his serve-led hard-court A-game (78% of first-serve points vs Fils, 13 of 14 break points saved in R2–R3) and takes two tight sets through a tiebreak or one late break — the same 7-6/7-5 then 6-4 pattern by which Nakashima, Etcheverry and Fritz beat Jodar on hard.
Belinda Bencic vs Sonay Kartal: price sim took Belinda Bencic at -213
2026-10-13 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Sonay Kartal won.
Documented risk, written before the result: There has been no all-clear on Bencic's hip, and Kartal's documented A-game — pressure on the first-serve return (38% over 12 months, 55% of all return points vs Wang) and counterpunching with few double faults — can drag a weakened Bencic serve (7.0% DF over 3 months) into a long deciding set she fades in, as happened against Putintseva at the US Open.
Magdalena Frech vs Iga Swiatek: price sim took Iga Swiatek at -1250
2026-10-13 · Wuhan · Prediction
Won. Iga Swiatek won.
Documented risk, written before the result: A Swiatek off-day like the 2026 losses to Linette (Miami R2, from a set up) or Mertens (zero break points), where cold returning and second-serve leaks let a steady, low-error Frech stay in rallies, as Frech did when winning the opening set against Pegula twice this summer.
Mia Pohankova vs Xiyu Wang: price sim took Xiyu Wang at -175
2026-10-13 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Mia Pohankova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pohankova serves the way she did against Bondar (every service game held, 73% on second serve) and attacks Wang's weak lefty serve, dragging Wang into the kind of close deciding set she lost this summer to aggressive lower-ranked hitters McNally (6-7 in the third) and Bejlek (5-7).
Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — T Money took Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at -110
2026-10-13 · Shanghai · Prediction
Won. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hurkacz keeps serving at his Shanghai level (80-84% on first serve, 13-19 aces a match), and ADF — who created one BP in three sets against Tiafoe and breaks first-strike servers only 15% of the time on hard — never gets a look, so it goes to tiebreaks that Hurkacz's first serve decides (he led the Chengdu tiebreak 6-3 with set points).
Ashlyn Krueger vs Shuai Zhang — T Money took Shuai Zhang at +130
2026-10-13 · Wuhan · Prediction
Lost. Ashlyn Krueger won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Krueger's first serve lands as it did against Kenin (8 aces, 81% of first-serve points won, 8 of 9 service games held) and she attacks Zhang's soft serve (3% aces); that is Krueger's documented hard-court strength against soft servers (77% holds, 6-4) and Zhang's documented weakness against mid-level servers (60% holds, 2-4).
Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik: price sim took Alexander Zverev at -312
2026-10-13 · Shanghai · Prediction
Won. Alexander Zverev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bublik's best tennis is built on a very big serve (index 0.96), which has faced one break point in two Shanghai rounds. Against Zverev's weakest hard-court split (12% of return games won against big servers), that can turn the match into a tiebreak lottery. This is the same pattern as Bublik's three straight-set wins in a 3-1 head-to-head (hard 2021-03 and 2022-02, grass 2023-06). Those meetings are 3.3 to 5.6 years old and outside the loss-table window, so I used them only as a stale style prior.
