Chipper’s daily positions, prices, pitching notes, and complete graded record.
Chipper publishes MLB moneyline predictions built from starting pitching, lineup, bullpen, park, and market-price context. Every published result stays in the ledger, including losses. Browse the latest free prediction articles, verify every result in the public record, or read how the models and grading work.
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These are graded model outputs; historical replay and closing-price rows are not described as preposted wagers. Losing results are never removed. Chipper has 1261 graded picks on the record.
Won. Minnesota Twins won.
Documented risk, written before the result: **Gore's season-long lefty profile could beat a Twins lineup that hits only .677 OPS against LHP.** Kremer's season rate of 3.00 HR/9 could also sink him in a park that plays warm (run factor 1.042), and then the Rangers' better pen closes it out.
Won. Milwaukee Brewers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pallante has held opponents to 1 ER in three of his last four starts, and his low home-run rate (0.63 HR/9) could keep this game low-scoring. Meanwhile a clinched Brewers team may use a short Misiorowski outing, rest its regulars and lean on depth relievers. That path fits St. Louis's documented A-game, and it is plausible.
Won. Pittsburgh Pirates won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Detroit's fresher and better bullpen (3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) could hold down Pittsburgh's bats for most of the game. Meanwhile Pittsburgh's pen is walk-prone (4.28 BB/9, 26 blown saves) and taxed: Ramírez, Sisk, Soto, Weaver and Montgomery each pitched twice in 3 days, and Mlodzinski threw 49 pitches yesterday. That pen could lose a close game once Jones leaves around the 6th.
Lost. Houston Astros won.
Won. Chicago White Sox won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Anthony Kay is not a clean edge. His K-BB% (10.3%) is actually worse than Freeland's (13.0%), and he has not reached 4.1 IP in any of his last four starts. A Rockies lineup with a .739 OPS could get into a taxed White Sox pen early. That pen used six relievers yesterday, with Schultz going 3.1 IP and Brazobán and Hudson each on their second outing of the window.
Lost. Toronto Blue Jays won.
Won. Chicago Cubs won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Boston's TBD starter keeps the game close, and their elite pen (46 saves, only 14 blown) outpitches a Cubs pen that has blown 28 saves in the late innings.
Lost. Miami Marlins won.
Won. Milwaukee Brewers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mathews repeats his recent 6-7 inning, 1-3 run starts against a Brewers lineup that is at its weakest against lefties, May exits early again, and the Cardinals get to Milwaukee's middle relief before Uribe and Megill can close it out.
Lost. New York Mets won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Irvin and Washington's walk-prone pen (4.2 BB/9) give up a mid-game lead to a rested Mets late group of Williams, Warren and Weisenburger, in a low-scoring game where the wind is blowing in.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Lost. Seattle Mariners won.
Lost. Houston Astros won.
Won. Colorado Rockies won.
Lost. Cleveland Guardians won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bibee pitches like his 9/13 start (6.2 IP, 7 K), so the game goes to the late innings close. Then Cade Smith, who is fresh, and Cleveland's better relievers outpitch a KC bullpen that has blown 26 saves and whose Erceg and Hoffman are also working on short rest.
Lost. Cincinnati Reds won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cincinnati's power could decide it. They have 212 HR, and Rogers Centre plays slightly hot (1.035 run factor). The bullpen game after Yesavage exits exposes Toronto's middle relievers, including tired arms like Cellucci and Dallas.
Won. San Diego Padres won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Buehler exits by the 4th or 5th again, which exposes a tired Padres middle relief to a rested D-backs pen and an Arizona lineup that runs well (102 SB, .791 success) in a low-scoring park where one crooked inning decides it.
Won. Milwaukee Brewers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The realest path to a Brewers loss is McGreevy's usual game, which is low walks and weak contact. If he gets through 6+ innings as he did on 9/7 and 9/13, while Gasser's usual short 4-5 inning start hands the middle innings to Brewers relievers who pitched on 9/24 (Ashby, Romero, Senzatela), the Cardinals can steal a close, low-scoring game.
Won. Washington Nationals won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Alvarez gives the Mets free baserunners (4.0 BB/9, K-BB% only about 13%, and a 0.42 HR/9 that is likely to rise). Once he leaves, the Nationals' pen (42 blown saves, 4.22 BB/9) can hand a late game to the Mets' clearly better bullpen.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Won. Athletics won.
Lost. Toronto Blue Jays won.
Lost. Arizona Diamondbacks won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pfaadt has a 2.99 ERA over 11 starts since July 23. He could go seven efficient innings in this pitcher's park and hand a **fresh Arizona pen** a low-scoring lead while San Diego's leverage arms are tired.
Won. New York Yankees won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Seymour pitches like he did in his 10-strikeout starts against the Mets and Astros. He shuts down a Yankees lineup without Judge or Grisham, and the Rays' contact offense (.750 OPS vs RHP) scores late against a pen whose closer has pitched two days in a row.
Lost. Pittsburgh Pirates won.
Won. San Diego Padres won.
Lost. Texas Rangers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The Rangers' strong hitting against lefties (.760 OPS) finds Thornton's home-run problem (1.47 HR/9, including a 4-HR start on 9/5) early, before the Mets' better bullpen can matter.
Won. Milwaukee Brewers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Milwaukee's pen must cover 7 or more innings right after Gordon (70 pitches) and DL Hall (36 pitches) were used, and Painter's documented A-game (the 7-inning, 2-hit gem at Arizona) could let Philadelphia's home power beat a thinned-out Brewers relief chain.
Lost. Chicago Cubs won.
Lost. Houston Astros won.
Lost. Cleveland Guardians won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cleveland's pen was lightly used (only Herrin pitched on consecutive days). Cade Smith, Gaddis and Sabrowski are fresh. They could hold a middling Boston offense in a wind-in, low-run game while Suarez's walk problem (5 BB his last start) gives Cleveland's 143-steal running game the one or two runs it needs.
Lost. Cincinnati Reds won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mahle's 49.1-inning 1.28 ERA sits on a .207 opponent average that looks lucky and should regress, and Cincinnati's 208-homer power could turn two or three swings into runs before Atlanta's pen enters. Atlanta's top relievers (Suarez, Lee, Iglesias, Suter) also all pitched on 9/23, although each threw only 13 to 15 pitches.
Lost. Chicago White Sox won.
Won. Arizona Diamondbacks won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rodriguez is trending the wrong way on thin strikeout stuff, and Colorado's Coors-inflated home offense could hit a contact lefty hard at altitude while Arizona's lineup stays flat against a right-hander.
Won. San Diego Padres won.
Lost. Seattle Mariners won.
Won. Boston Red Sox won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Griffin pitches to his 1.07 season WHIP, the NE wind blowing in from center holds down Boston's power, and Cleveland's pen, which strikes out 10.3 per 9, closes out a low-scoring game.
Lost. Kansas City Royals won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fedde is a right-handed bulk arm with no line in the dossiers, and Kansas City hits better against righties (.724 OPS). If Lugo repeats his 9/11 start (5 IP, 2 ER, 7 K), Chicago's pen covers extra innings with Trevor Richards taxed (55 pitches in 3 days), and the game can flip late.
Lost. Pittsburgh Pirates won.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Lost. Minnesota Twins won.
Lost. Philadelphia Phillies won.
Lost. Cleveland Guardians won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Messick repeats his season form (.614 OPS allowed) in a low-scoring, wind-in game, and Cleveland steals a 2-1 or 3-2 win with its base running (142 steals at 83%).
Won. Cincinnati Reds won.
Won. Arizona Diamondbacks won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Coors does its usual thing to a visiting righty who averages under five innings, Colorado's .739 OPS offense gets to Soroka early, and the game turns into the bullpen slugfest a 4141-foot elevation jump punishes the road side in.
Won. San Francisco Giants won.
Won. Toronto Blue Jays won.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Lost. Philadelphia Phillies won.
Lost. Arizona Diamondbacks won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Burnes is a pedigree ace, and if he has been stretched past 85 pitches since 9/14 he can shut down a .235-hitting Yankees offense for five or six, handing a one-run lead to Martinez and Ginkel.
Lost. Chicago White Sox won.
Won. Texas Rangers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Soriano repeats his 7-inning, two-run form from Sept 8 and hands a lead to Toronto's deeper pen, which is exactly the Blue Jays' documented winning shape.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Lost. New York Mets won.
Won. Los Angeles Angels won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Minnesota is the better offense by a real margin (.720 OPS, 178 HR to .677, 146) and the Angels score 4.0 per game, so one Detmers mistake inning plus a quiet LAA night is a clean losing path.
Won. Milwaukee Brewers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rogers repeats his 7.1-inning, no-walk home start, keeps the taxed Brewers pen (Megill, Uribe, Drohan, Senzatela, Patrick all worked 9/18) in a one-run game, and Baltimore's power decides it with two swings.
Lost. Chicago White Sox won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Burke's A-game is the Houston start — 5.2 scoreless with six strikeouts — and if he holds that line, Jobe's 1.56 HR/9 gets punished by Chicago's power and Detroit's pen is down Brieske (49 pitches) and a twice-used Sommers/Kinley.
Won. Atlanta Braves won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wesneski repeats his White Sox form (7 IP, 1 hit) and hands a 2-run lead to Abreu and Hader, which is exactly Houston's documented A-game and never lets Atlanta's pen edge matter.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Lost. New York Mets won.
Lost. San Diego Padres won.
Lost. Pittsburgh Pirates won.
Won. Boston Red Sox won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Seymour's A-game is the 10-strikeout, six-inning outing he posted twice in his last four, and at home behind a better offense that is a clean path to Tampa winning.
Won. Atlanta Braves won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lambert matches his 9/6 and 9/12 form with a six-or-seven-inning, low-walk start, handing a one-run lead to Abreu and Hader in a suppressive park — Houston's documented A-game.
Lost. Cleveland Guardians won.
Won. San Diego Padres won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Coors is Colorado's documented A-game — a 1.246 run factor with a light breeze out to center turns King's 1.03 HR/9 into two crooked innings, and the Rockies' .742 team OPS scores in bunches at home regardless of the arm.
Won. Philadelphia Phillies won.
Won. Boston Red Sox won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Texas's documented A-game here is exactly the bullpen game working — a lefty opener carving Boston's lineup once through and Latz/Silseth/Junis chaining scoreless innings against a .723-OPS offense that scores only 4.4 a game.
Won. Tampa Bay Rays won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Springs' A-game is real and recent — 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R at Seattle on 9/5 — and Tampa's middling .260/.328 bat does not punish a lefty who is locating.
Lost. Seattle Mariners won.
Won. San Francisco Giants won.
Lost. Philadelphia Phillies won.
Lost. Minnesota Twins won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Matthews' documented A-game is real and recent — 7.0 IP/1 ER at the Athletics and 8.1 IP/1 ER vs Chicago — and a strike-throwing night from him against a .236-hitting, 1,377-strikeout Yankee offense buries the pen edge entirely.
Won. Milwaukee Brewers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jones repeats his September A-game — mid-90s heat, 8-9 punchouts through six or seven — and PNC's home crowd plus Milwaukee's post-clinch lineup rest turns this into a 2-1 Pirates game the fresh arms never have to protect.
Won. Kansas City Royals won.
Lost. Toronto Blue Jays won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Scherzer's A-game is exactly the 8/30 Seattle start — 7 IP, 1 H, 10 K — and if that version shows up, Montero's 4-inning outings hand the game to Toronto's 50-save bullpen.
Lost. Texas Rangers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bennett is homer-prone (1.03 HR/9, three homers allowed on 9/9) and Texas leads this matchup in home runs (173, one per 29 AB) — one three-run swing in a low-run park is the clean Rangers path.
Lost. Baltimore Orioles won.
Won. Tampa Bay Rays won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Martinez is a 5.3 K/9 contact pitcher with 1.03 HR/9, and the Athletics' 183 home runs are their one real A-game path — two swings off Martinez plus a Hartlieb/Harris bullpen day that holds flips this.
Won. Los Angeles Angels won.
Won. Washington Nationals won.
Lost. Milwaukee Brewers won.
Lost. Houston Astros won.
Won. Detroit Tigers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Toronto's A-game here is exactly the bullpen game — 98 holds, 50 saves and only 16 blown saves says the piggyback behind Fisher can absorb eight innings and hand a lead to a closer at home while Detroit's own pen (32 blown saves, Brieske at 64 pitches in two days, Jansen back-to-back) hands one back.
Lost. Cleveland Guardians won.
Lost. Texas Rangers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sandoval's 4.42 BB/9 and 1.76 WHIP hand Texas free baserunners early, and their power plays exactly the three-run-inning script that beats a good bullpen before it ever pitches.
Won. Baltimore Orioles won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Manaea posts the clean 6-inning, 1-run game he is capable of while the fresher Mets pen closes it in a park that suppresses the homers Baz just gave up two of on 9/9.
Won. Atlanta Braves won.
Won. Los Angeles Angels won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Anderson keeps the ball in the yard for five, Seattle's 173-homer power gets to an Angels bullpen that has blown 28 saves in 50 chances, and Muñoz closes it — exactly Seattle's documented winning shape.
Lost. St. Louis Cardinals won.
Won. New York Yankees won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The Yankees hit .235 and strike out 1,362 times, so Kremer's competent version (5 IP, 2 ER, as at San Diego and Detroit) plus Twins power in a hot park is a live path to a low-scoring Minnesota win.
Won. Arizona Diamondbacks won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Alcantara's A-game is a 7-inning, one-run outing like his August 24 start against Boston, and if he gives Miami length while Burnes is capped at 3-4 innings, Arizona's pen gets exposed for six innings and the edge inverts.
Won. Detroit Tigers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Soriano goes seven again as he did on 8/29 and 9/8, handing a lead to the Toronto pen that has converted 50 of 65 with 15 blown saves against Detroit's 29-of-60, 31-blown group.
Won. Chicago White Sox won.
Won. Baltimore Orioles won.
Lost. Texas Rangers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Quantrill goes six scoreless again — he has two zeros in his last four — and Texas's 172-homer power clears the fence in a hot Chase Field before Arizona's pen ever matters.
Won. Athletics won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Seattle's documented A-game is exactly run prevention — Muñoz, Domínguez, Milner and Speier are all rested enough to cover a short Miller start and hold a lead against an A's offense that strikes out 1,269 times.
Won. San Diego Padres won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Webb repeats his home form (6 IP, 1 ER, 8 K vs. St. Louis) and pushes a .239-hitting Padres offense into a pitcher's park, where two runs is enough.
Won. New York Yankees won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Soto and Lindor get to Schlittler early or the game goes to the pen tied, where the Mets' fully rested relief corps (one arm used in each of the last two games) matches up against a Yankee pen working its fourth straight day.
Won. Cleveland Guardians won.
Won. St. Louis Cardinals won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McGreevy's 6.19 K/9 and 1.17 HR/9 against a lineup with four 750+ OPS bats is exactly the Orioles start (10 H, 7 R, 2 HR), and a taxed Cardinals pen behind it is Chicago's documented A-game path.
Lost. Texas Rangers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pfaadt is homer-prone (1.00 HR/9, three HR allowed at Boston on 8/19) and Texas's one elite tool is power — 171 homers in a park running 1.035 — so a two-swing inning flips this.
Lost. San Diego Padres won.
Won. Chicago Cubs won.
Lost. New York Mets won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cole's own flaw is the same one — 1.38 HR/9 and four homers surrendered at San Diego on 9/6 — and the Mets' documented A-game is power (182 HR) into a wind blowing out, which is a clean path to a slugfest the underdog wins.
Lost. Boston Red Sox won.
Won. Detroit Tigers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gordon repeats his Washington line (7 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB) against a Detroit offense hitting .237 with a .710 OPS, and Colorado steals a low-scoring game.
Lost. Chicago White Sox won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chicago's relief corps is genuinely the better unit on the season (3.69 vs 4.54 ERA, 1.29 vs 1.39 WHIP), so if Newcomb's two clean innings hand off to Hicks and Hudson with a lead, the White Sox bullpen game works exactly as designed and Leahy's short-start pattern exposes the worse pen first.
Lost. Toronto Blue Jays won.
Won. Arizona Diamondbacks won.
Won. Athletics won.
Lost. San Diego Padres won.
Lost. Atlanta Braves won.
Won. New York Yankees won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McLean works 6+ low-hit innings as he did in 3 of his last 4 starts, Rodón exits around the 5th, and the Mets' right-handed-heavy lineup gets 4 innings against a Yankees middle relief that is on back-to-back usage.
Won. Washington Nationals won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kikuchi repeats his recent 6 to 7 inning form, and the game reaches a Washington bullpen that is clearly worse in relief (5.07 ERA, 1.39 HR/9, 38 blown saves) than the Angels' pen (4.26 ERA, 9.9 K/9).
Lost. Kansas City Royals won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gray gives up the long ball the way he did against SF (2 HR), and the game turns into a slugfest between two near-identical offenses (.718 vs .726 OPS). Lugo repeating his 8/25 Toronto start (5 IP, 1 ER) would keep it close. Neither is KC's documented A-game, because KC has no ace line or elite pen here.
Lost. Atlanta Braves won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Martinez gives up a lot of contact (5.34 K/9, 1.07 HR/9), so Olson and the other two lefties could homer, and Atlanta's rested, better late-inning relievers could protect a lead from the 6th on.
Won. New York Yankees won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fried has thrown just 63 and 72 pitches in his last two starts after a 16-day gap, so a short leash could hand 4 or more innings to the pen. That opens a path for Colorado's contact-heavy lineup (.253 AVG, .306 BABIP) to string hits together, though some of that line is inflated by Coors. The Yankees' own .234/.312 offense might then fail to punish Feltner.
Lost. Seattle Mariners won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Anderson gives Seattle five clean innings in a 0.816 run-factor park and Muñoz — fresh after one 15-pitch outing on 9/6 — shortens the game before Texas's advantage ever shows up.
Won. Pittsburgh Pirates won.
Won. Baltimore Orioles won.
Won. Milwaukee Brewers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gausman repeats his 9/3 outing against Milwaukee — 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K — and a low-scoring game turns on one Cubs swing, which is precisely their documented A-game.
Lost. San Diego Padres won.
Lost. Toronto Blue Jays won.
Won. Texas Rangers won.
Lost. New York Mets won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Alcantara's A-game is contact-dependent — only 6.53 K/9 — so the Mets' 176-homer offense can jump him for a 4-spot in one inning and hand it to a rested Mets pen that threw only 52 pitches Sunday.
Lost. Minnesota Twins won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Detroit's offense is the worse unit (.710 OPS, 1258 K) and has been shut out into low-run games all year, so Kremer surviving five and Minnesota's better bats scratching three or four is a live path.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Won. Arizona Diamondbacks won.
Lost. San Francisco Giants won.
Won. Detroit Tigers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Minnesota already did this to Melton on 9/1 — 7 runs and 2 homers in 5.1 IP — and their .742 OPS with 131 homers vs RHP is exactly the A-game that beats a contact-heavy 7.39 K/9 righty.
Lost. Boston Red Sox won.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Lost. Philadelphia Phillies won.
Won. Kansas City Royals won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Toronto's documented A-game is exactly bullpen suppression — a 3.90 staff ERA with 93 holds and only 15 blown saves can erase a 3-inning Arrighetti outing and win 4-2.
Won. St. Louis Cardinals won.
Lost. Pittsburgh Pirates won.
Lost. Cleveland Guardians won.
Lost. Miami Marlins won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Phillips repeats the Kansas City start (5 IP, 1 hit) and Miami's high-hold pen bridges a 2-1 game, which is exactly this team's documented winning shape.
Lost. Seattle Mariners won.
Won. Arizona Diamondbacks won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Arizona hits RHP at just .681 OPS, so Lambert's 8.89 K/9 stuff can hold them to two or three runs and let Houston's 186-homer offense plus Hader finish it.
Won. Toronto Blue Jays won.
Won. Tampa Bay Rays won.
Documented risk, written before the result: deGrom's A-game is exactly the 7 IP, one-hit, no-walk start he threw on 8/31, and in a park with a 0.853 run factor and the roof likely shut in 98-degree heat, that alone wins the game.
Won. New York Yankees won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rodón has not cleared 5 innings in any recent start (66-96 pitches, 4.73 BB/9), so a 4-inning outing hands San Diego five innings against a bullpen that has blown 27 saves — exactly the low-scoring Petco game their Morejon/Matsui/Miller back end is built to close.
Lost. Cincinnati Reds won.
Documented risk, written before the result: May gets knocked out in the third again and Cincinnati's 188-homer offense turns a hot 92-degree GABP night into a slugfest their pen only has to protect for four innings.
Won. Chicago Cubs won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gusto has allowed one earned run over his last three starts and Miami's deep, high-hold pen shortens the game behind him in a park where the Cubs' power plays down.
Won. Boston Red Sox won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Baltimore's documented A-game is power — 172 HR at home in a park that rewards pull-side lift, and Gray has given up 15 HR including a two-homer night to San Francisco, so two swings can flip this against Boston's merely average .716 OPS vs RHP.
Lost. Philadelphia Phillies won.
Won. Athletics won.
Lost. Los Angeles Dodgers won.
Cleveland's rested bullpen and an unannounced starter give this ALCS Game 6 number more risk than it shows.
The model likes Tampa Bay on paper, but a shaky bat matchup and a wind-aided bullpen risk keep this one off the card.
Cleveland's shutdown bullpen and a rough recent start for Martinez both sit in this one, and the math still didn't clear the bar.
Tampa Bay's moneyline looks tempting at -107, but Martinez's shaky history and Cleveland's bullpen keep this one off the board.
Cleveland is the lean on the board, Tampa Bay's lineup against right-handers is the reason this one stays off the card.
Milwaukee trails the NLCS 0-3, but the bullpen math and a short Glasnow outing keep this one off the board.
Snell's shaky recent starts and Milwaukee's bullpen edge make the Brewers vs Dodgers series tighter than the number lets on.
Tampa's pitching and Cleveland's quiet bats point to a low-scoring night, but the model is staying off the board in Game 2.
