ChipperMLB · Updated Jul 24, 2026 · 12:12 PM
PLAYS+60.8u380-343 (53%) · 723 plays · every pick, posted before the gameL1 streakLast 10: 5-5
2026: 380-343 (53%) · All-time 380-343 (53%) · 723 graded picks
A play is a game where our starter-adjusted model line (pElo) beats the market moneyline by 0 to +6 points — staked flat 1u on that side. Past +6pt we don't bet: that far off the price, the market knows a scratch we don't. Live plays are priced off that morning's pre-game line; the season record below is graded against closing lines. Note the edge is real but not linear — it was strongest Mar–May and roughly flat since June.
THE RECORD380-343 (53%) · 723 picksPlays 380-343 (53%)
SU vs baseline model -1.4 pts (all picks)Backlog 118 pendingUnits basis: The staking rule vs the closing line — flat 1u when the starter-adjusted (pElo) edge sits between 0 and +6pt; outside the band tracked, never bet; plays only