Trip Nick’s most recent graded NFL picks
These are graded model outputs; historical replay and closing-price rows are not described as preposted wagers. Losing results are never removed. Trip Nick has 626 graded picks on the record.
DAL@GB — Trip Nick took Green Bay Packers +1.5 at -122
2026-10-18 · Week 2026-06 · BET
Won. GB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dallas has the better offense by every unit measure (pass 8th, protection 3rd, 27.6 points per game) and Green Bay can barely run (31st in rush EPA, Josh Jacobs still off the roster picture, Chris Brooks on IR), so if Nixon sits and Green Bay's banged-up interior cannot pressure Prescott, Dallas can win a shootout outright. The Sunday night forecast at Lambeau shows 16 to 17 mph wind with gusts in the mid-30s, which could compress a passing game on both sides and make this a coin flip.
BUF@LA — Trip Nick took Buffalo Bills +3 at +100
2026-10-12 · Week 2026-05 · BET
Won. BUF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Buffalo's defense is the reason this is a coin flip. It has allowed 31, 31, 16 and 29 points and just lost at home to New England, and if Benford and Oliver both sit while Donald and Jaylen Watson both play, the availability edge swings to the Rams at home and this read flips to Los Angeles by a point or two. Stafford also threw 51 times with two interceptions and no touchdown passes at Philadelphia, so a cleaner game from him against backup corners is the simplest way the Rams win.
PHI@JAX — Trip Nick took Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 at -112
2026-10-11 · Week 2026-05 · BET
Won. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Philadelphia's injury list could look much better by Sunday. Goedert, Baun, Mitchell and Fred Johnson were all limited Wednesday, and if DeVonta Smith also returns, Hurts would be throwing against a Jacksonville secondary missing a safety and possibly three corners. Jacksonville's own protection is 29th (26 percent sack-plus-hit allowed, four sacks taken at Cincinnati) with both tackles limited, so Jalen Carter and the Eagles front can keep this a one-score game even though the Eagles' pass rush ranks last so far.
MIN@NO — Trip Nick took Minnesota Vikings -2.5 at -108
2026-10-11 · Week 2026-05 · BET
Won. MIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Minnesota cannot score enough to pull away. Its last three wins were by 6, 7 and 5 points against Chicago, a Tampa Bay team that lost Mayfield mid-game, and Miami, and the offense produced five field goals and no touchdown last week. If Darrisaw and Addison sit and Jefferson is limited, New Orleans (26.2 points per game, one-point loss at Detroit, a win at Baltimore) can keep this a one-score game at home and steal it late. Shough's hand and Kamara's back cut the other way.
HOU@TEN — Trip Nick took Tennessee Titans +7.5 at -115
2026-10-11 · Week 2026-05 · BET
Lost. HOU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Houston is 0 and 4 with a defense that has allowed 34, 20, 19 and 36 points, its head coach is taking over the play-calling midstream, and Will Anderson Jr. may not play. Tennessee's four losses have been tighter than the record suggests lately (by 4 to Philadelphia, 5 at the Giants, 6 at Baltimore) and its protection has been good (16 percent sack-or-hit allowed, 3rd). If Anderson sits and Simmons plays, a low-scoring divisional home game at 62F with possible rain is exactly how Tennessee gets its first win. Houston's run game (30th in EPA per rush, 79 yards per game) cannot close a lead.
CLE@NYJ — Trip Nick took Cleveland Browns +2.5 at -110
2026-10-11 · Week 2026-05 · BET
Lost. NYJ won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cleveland has not beaten anyone comfortably and is 31st in rushing efficiency with 24th-ranked protection, so one Watson turnover can swing a low-scoring road game (he fumbled twice against Pittsburgh). The Jets are at home, their defense allows 21 points per game (11th), and if Hall or Parham surprise and play, or Mason Graham sits and the Jets control the game with Braelon Allen, this is a true coin flip. Gusts of 16 to 18 mph and a rising rain chance late could compress scoring further.
CIN@MIA — Trip Nick took Miami Dolphins +6.5 at +100
2026-10-11 · Week 2026-05 · BET
Lost. CIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chase and Higgins both sitting. If Burrow has neither starting receiver in 91F heat, the passing edge that this read rests on shrinks to Gesicki, Chase Brown checkdowns and depth receivers, and Miami's run defense (6th in EPA per rush allowed) can sit on a Cincinnati run game that ranks 18th. Cincinnati has also lost two straight one-score games with turnovers late (strip sack at Pittsburgh, two Burrow interceptions against Jacksonville), and Ollie Gordon II ran for 100 yards on 9 carries for Miami last week.
TB@DAL — Trip Nick took Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 at -112
2026-10-08 · Week 2026-05 · BET
Won. TB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dallas' defense is bad enough to make a rookie quarterback look functional. Daniels ran 8 times for 55 yards against Green Bay, Bucky Irving and a top-13 run game face a defense giving up 150 rushing yards a game, and Tampa Bay has lost all four games by 7 or fewer. If the Buccaneers control the clock on the ground and their 4th-ranked run defense forces Prescott to throw every down behind a line that may or may not get Tyler Smith back, this becomes a one-score game that a turnover decides. Dallas has also already lost two games as the better-rated team.
JAX@CIN — Trip Nick took Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 at -102
2026-10-04 · Week 2026-04 · BET
Won. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Burrow, Chase and Higgins are healthy and the Bengals posted +0.38 EPA per dropback at Pittsburgh. If Montaric Brown sits and Bryan Cook plays, the secondary edge flips toward Cincinnati, and the Jaguars' road passing was poor in their only loss (Denver, minus 0.13 EPA per dropback with a 29 percent sack-or-hit rate).
GB@TB — Trip Nick took GB
2026-10-04 · Week 2026-04 · PASS
Won. GB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Mayfield's thumb allows him to grip and play through it (Questionable, not Out) or if Daniels leans entirely on Irving and Tampa's defense forces the multiple long-window turnovers it already showed flashes of (return-TD-net -1 last week), TB's identity as a run-and-defense team could still steal this at home.
LAC@SEA — Trip Nick took SEA
2026-10-04 · Week 2026-04 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: LAC's defense (Tuipulotu, James, Mack) is healthy and disruptive, and if it forces multiple Darnold turnovers like Washington did (2 INTs, including a pick-six), Seattle's home crowd edge could evaporate into a close, low-scoring Chargers upset.
ARI@NYG — Trip Nick took Arizona Cardinals -1.5 at +102
2026-10-04 · Week 2026-04 · BET
Lost. NYG won.
Documented risk, written before the result: NYG's defense has been the story of their season (limited Titans to 7, forced a Stafford pick the week before) and could turn a low-event, wind-affected MetLife game into a field-position battle where Winston's low-turnover conservatism is enough to win outright.
KC@LV — Trip Nick took KC
2026-10-04 · Week 2026-04 · PASS
Won. KC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Bowers (fresh off a 10-116-1 return) keeps commanding the middle of the field and Jeanty's touch volume produces positive-script red zone trips, LV's identical 3-0 record and higher raw offensive environment (35 points last week) is a completely plausible path to a home upset — that's their A-game and it's real.
DET@CAR — Trip Nick took Detroit Lions -3 at -108
2026-10-04 · Week 2026-04 · BET
Lost. CAR won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chuba Hubbard has been a legitimate workhorse (99 combined touches over 3 games) and DET's safety corps is genuinely gutted, so a clock-control, play-action-off-Hubbard script against Detroit's thin secondary is CAR's most realistic path to keeping this within a score or stealing it.
NE@BUF — Trip Nick took BUF
2026-10-04 · Week 2026-04 · PASS
Lost. NE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: BUF's own O-line/DL are banged up (Reed-Adams, Bowry, Danna, Sanders all out) and Allen has turned it over 3x in each of the last two games, so a repeat of that Chargers-level sloppiness could let a desperate, blitz-happy Vrabel defense (which already limited PIT to 3 points) hang around or steal it.
TEN@BAL — Trip Nick took Tennessee Titans +11.5 at -110
2026-10-04 · Week 2026-04 · BET
Won. BAL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wind gusting to 21-22 mph could dampen both passing games and shrink the margin, and BAL's own banged-up secondary/OL (Stanley out, Tampa on IR) keeps this from being a laugher if Ward gets hot on play-action against a tired Ravens front off a Rio trip.
PIT@CLE — Trip Nick took Cleveland Browns +2.5 at +100
2026-10-01 · Week 2026-04 · BET
Won. CLE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pittsburgh's pass rush (Watt, Heyward) against a Cleveland line starting Luke Wypler at center and rookie Austin Barber at RG on a short week: early sacks and a strip turn this into the Week 1 Jacksonville script. The other way, Graham and Verse beat Pittsburgh's rookie RT and Rodgers' 30th-ranked pass game stalls, which is how Pittsburgh lost 3-20 at New England.
PHI@CHI — Trip Nick took PHI
2026-09-28 · Week 2026-03 · PASS
Lost. CHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Bagent clears the concussion protocol and starts, his home crowd, Ben Johnson's scheme, and a competent game-manager floor (his career splits show he can avoid disaster in spot outings) could keep this within one score, especially in calm Soldier Field conditions that don't punish a limited passer.
SEA@WAS — Trip Nick took SEA
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · PASS
Lost. WAS won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Mariota again plays efficiently in a low-mistake, ball-control role (as he did in relief) and Seattle's own unresolved QB spot produces a lesser Lock/Darnold performance, WAS could keep this within a score at home.
ARI@SF — Trip Nick took SF
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · PASS
Won. SF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SF's own defensive absences (Hobbs, Martin on IR; DL depth thinned) could let Trey McBride and the ARI ground game (Love/Allgeier) sustain enough drives to keep it a one-score game if SF's offense stalls on the road-team short week adjustment — plausible given ARI's defense has shown flashes (Baker, Wilson productive) even in the loss.
CIN@PIT — Trip Nick took CIN
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · Prediction
Lost. PIT won.
Documented risk, written before the result: T.J. Watt's pass rush wins one-on-ones against a CIN tackle and forces the kind of Burrow mistake we haven't seen yet, flipping field position in a game where PIT's defense (held Houston-quality offenses in check) controls the margin.
TEN@NYG — Trip Nick took Tennessee Titans +2.5 at +100
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · BET
Lost. NYG won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Winston's known rapport with TE Isaiah Likely (13-111-2 through two games) and a potentially available Malik Nabers connect for chunk plays while TEN's patchwork O-line/backfield again fails to sustain drives, NYG's defense and home crowd could turn this into the kind of low-scoring escape that matches their documented capability even with a backup QB.
KC@MIA — Trip Nick took KC
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · PASS
Won. KC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Miami's defensive front (even without Robinson) still generated pressure on a MIA squad that has been humbled early, and heat/humidity plus a laboring Josh Simmons-less KC tackle spot could produce sloppy red-zone trips that keep this closer than the talent gap suggests.
NE@JAX — Trip Nick took New England Patriots +3 at -112
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · BET
Lost. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: JAX's skill corps (Washington, Thomas, Meyers, Strange, Tuten) is fully healthy and playing at home in a likely near-capacity building, and average or even below-average O-line play often still produces enough explosive plays for a talented offense to win outright — that's a clean path to a Jaguars win matching their documented A-game.
LA@DEN — Trip Nick took LA
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · PASS
Lost. DEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Nacua returns and Denver's crowd/altitude plus a competent home defense forces a Rams turnover or two on the road in a raucous division-style road environment, a two-score Denver home win off Kambi-style variance is a live outcome that matches DEN's documented capacity to grind out close games.
BAL@DAL — Trip Nick took Dallas Cowboys +3.5 at -115
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · BET
Won. BAL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Flowers is back to full health and Derrick Henry grinds out a ground-control game behind BAL's still-functional interior, Baltimore's balanced attack can control the clock and steal this in a low-scoring, one-score finish.
CAR@CLE — Trip Nick took CAR
2026-09-27 · Week 2026-03 · PASS
Lost. CLE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Watson has real starting job security this week and gets a get-right spot at home in the opener against a Panthers defense that just allowed 59 points to Chicago, and if Denzel Boston/Fannin hit more explosive plays like Week 2's 55-yard TD, Cleveland's ceiling shows up fast.
ATL@GB — Trip Nick took GB
2026-09-24 · Week 2026-03 · PASS
Lost. ATL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Penix's arm talent and mobility are truly game-ready, ATL's pass-catching corps (London, Pitts, Bijan) upgrades instantly from replacement-level QB play, and GB's own OL trio (Bako-Bewele, Banks, Jennings all questionable) could get overwhelmed by Ebukam/Dorlus, flipping this into a low-scoring ATL upset.
NYG@LA — Trip Nick took New York Giants +6.5 at -105
2026-09-21 · Week 2026-02 · BET
Lost. LA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Donald suits up and gives LA's front seven its scariest interior presence, combined with a desperate 0-1 McVay offense finally clicking at home off extra rest (11 days), the Rams' A-game (efficient Stafford, home crowd, get-well spot) beats a Giants team whose banged-up CB trio gets exposed by Nacua/Adams.
PHI@TEN — Trip Nick took PHI
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · PASS
Won. PHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If TEN's defense (which held Hurts' Week 1 backfield mates in check on early downs) gets pressure from Faulk/Johnson on a patchwork PHI interior line missing Dickerson, a low-scoring, field-position battle keeps this inside a score.
CLE@TB — Trip Nick took Cleveland Browns +8.5 at -112
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · BET
Won. CLE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mayfield's three lost fumbles in Week 1 show a live turnover risk that, if it recurs against Cleveland's disruptive front (Schwesinger, returning Chatman/Davis), could hand Watson short fields and let Cleveland's ceiling game (Boston/Jeudy explosive plays) steal this at home dog value.
GB@NYJ — Trip Nick took New York Jets +4.5 at -120
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · BET
Won. GB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Love has real top-end arm talent (387 yds, 2 TD in Week 1) and if he avoids the turnovers that sank Green Bay last week, GB's passing attack (Watson, Golden, Kraft all productive) can outscore a Jets offense that is still run-first and low-volume through the air.
LV@LAC — Trip Nick took Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 at -102
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · BET
Won. LV won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If McConkey and Davis both play (Davis is trending toward clearance) and Herbert's line holds up better than Week 1 suggested, Herbert's arm talent alone can erase a 3-score gap in a dome with no weather variable — that's LAC's realistic ceiling path to a win.
IND@KC — Trip Nick took KC
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · PASS
Won. KC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: KC's own OL is banged up (Simmons out at LT, Questionable Conner at safety) and a Colts pass rush getting home against a patchwork rookie tackle could speed up Mahomes and let Jones' clean pocket (only 2 sacks Week 1) produce points off Taylor's 98-yard, 2-TD form.
CIN@HOU — Trip Nick took CIN
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · Prediction
Won. CIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Houston's front seven (Anderson/Hunter/Al-Shaair) is still largely intact and can pressure Burrow, who is playing through a back issue, and a repeat of Stroud's Montgomery-powered ground game plus a home dome-shielded environment could keep this close or flip it.
JAX@DEN — Trip Nick took Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 at -102
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · BET
Lost. DEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: This is a Sean Payton home opener off a bad Week 1 loss with real bounce-back motivation and a talented Denver defense (Allen, Singleton) that could turn Lawrence over on the road in a "playoff-mentality" spot Nix himself framed as must-win — a competent home correction from Denver is a fully realistic path to a JAX loss.
WAS@DAL — Trip Nick took Washington Commanders +3.5 at +100
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · BET
Lost. DAL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dallas at home gets CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens going against a Washington secondary that already lost Trey Amos and Ahkello Witherspoon, and Pickens specifically has a documented bounce-back profile against leaky corners — that's Dallas's clean, likely path to covering this gap and winning outright.
MIN@CHI — Trip Nick took CHI
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · PASS
Lost. MIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Murray does clear protocol and starts, MIN's offense (39 points, 2 rushing-adjacent playmakers in Jefferson/Hockenson) looked explosive in Week 1 and could exploit a Bears defense that just allowed 37 points and 478 yards to Carolina, which is CHI's clean documented path to a loss.
NO@BAL — Trip Nick took New Orleans Saints +8.5 at -115
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · BET
Won. NO won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Kamara is fully healthy and Shough again airs it out 50+ times behind Olave/Vele like Week 1's 410-yard, 3-TD line, New Orleans can keep this a shootout Baltimore's defense (Madubuike limited, Tampa banged up) isn't built to close out.
SEA@ARI — Trip Nick took ARI
2026-09-20 · Week 2026-02 · PASS
Lost. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lock was clean and efficient in relief last week (16/22, 187 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT) and Seattle's defense (3 INTs of Drake Maye in Week 1) is talented enough to make this close if Lock avoids turnovers and the defense forces another couple of takeaways.
DET@BUF — Trip Nick took BUF
2026-09-17 · Week 2026-02 · PASS
Won. BUF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: DET's offense (Goff/St. Brown/Gibbs) was clearly functional and explosive in Week 1 (31 points, OT win) and could simply out-execute a Bills defense that is also banged up on the back end, especially if Buffalo's own missing DL/DB depth lets Gibbs' outside-zone game control tempo.
DEN@KC — Trip Nick took Denver Broncos +2.5 at -112
2026-09-14 · Week 2026-01 · BET
Lost. KC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mahomes receives clearance and immediately restores Kansas City’s documented quarterback ceiling, with Arrowhead and Andy Reid amplifying that path.
NYJ@TEN — Trip Nick took TEN
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Lost. NYJ won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ward’s uneven offense reproduces Tennessee’s documented 41-7 collapse while the Jets reveal a competent quarterback unavailable to this read.
ATL@PIT — Trip Nick took PIT
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. PIT won.
Documented risk, written before the result: A healthy Tagovailoa or fully cleared Penix could give Atlanta the efficient passing needed to reproduce its documented late-season pattern of winning close games.
WAS@PHI — Trip Nick took PHI
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. PHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Washington already demonstrated its clean winning path at this venue—holding Philadelphia to 17 points and winning by seven—even with a backup quarterback.
DAL@NYG — Trip Nick took NYG
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. NYG won.
Documented risk, written before the result: That closing-2025 form is thin and possibly noise — Prescott is reportedly fully healthy off one of his better statistical seasons, and if Dallas's offense performs to full-season form rather than its ugly final three-game sample, that talent gap (Prescott/Lamb-caliber weapons) plausibly overwhelms a still-developing Giants roster, which is Dallas's real A-game.
GB@MIN — Trip Nick took MIN
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. MIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Jordan Love is healthy and locked in as the true Week 1 starter, his ceiling (accurate downfield arm, off-schedule playmaking) matches exactly the profile that beats a good defense on the road in a rivalry opener — a full-strength Love bounce-back is a clean, likely path to a GB win that this read can't rule out with unlisted starters.
MIA@LV — Trip Nick took LV
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. LV won.
ARI@LAC — Trip Nick took LAC
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Lost. ARI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Arizona wins if the Chargers’ quarterback uncertainty persists and its defense forces a low-possession game resembling Los Angeles’ documented three-point offensive finishes.
CLE@JAX — Trip Nick took JAX
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Cleveland's Week 1 starter turns out to be a known, competent veteran/incumbent while Jacksonville has any QB uncertainty of its own, this read inverts immediately — with both quarterbacks unlisted, whichever team gets clarity first on a stable starter likely wins this lean.
BAL@IND — Trip Nick took BAL
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. BAL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: A clean, likely IND path — Taylor-powered ground control plus a mistake-free Jones plus a first-game-of-the-season home crowd — while Baltimore's offense is still finding its footing under a first-year coordinator. That's the Colts' documented A-game, not a stretch scenario.
BUF@HOU — Trip Nick took BUF
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. BUF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Houston's defensive front gets early pressure and turnovers off Allen in a true road opener before Buffalo's O-line syncs up — Ryans' defense has shown exactly this capacity to abuse a Week 1 rhythm-first offense.
NO@DET — Trip Nick took DET
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. DET won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Detroit's offensive line was gutted this offseason — Frank Ragnow retired, Taylor Decker was cut loose, and a first-round rookie (Blake Miller) is set to start at right tackle in Week 1 with Sewell kicked out to left tackle — so if New Orleans' pass rush gets early pressure on Goff, this becomes a low-scoring, one-score game New Orleans can steal, matching the momentum Shough built down last year's stretch.
TB@CIN — Trip Nick took CIN
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. CIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: TB's documented A-game IS the close, low-scoring win (16-14 over CAR) — if their defense/trenches control tempo and Cincinnati's offense is slow out of the gate (a common Week 1 pattern with no verified OL/pass-rush data on either side), this stays single-digit and TB's discipline in tight games could steal it.
CHI@CAR — Trip Nick took CAR
2026-09-13 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Lost. CHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ben Johnson is a respected scheme-builder with a track record of protecting/elevating a young QB through quick-game design even behind an unsettled line — if he masks the OL issue with tempo and quick throws, Chicago's ceiling with Caleb Williams in Year 2 is real and this flips.
SF@LA — Trip Nick took LA
2026-09-10 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Lost. SF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Purdy is healthy and the same 49ers trench identity that made a Super Bowl-caliber roster looks intact, this is a genuine coin flip between two top-tier offensive-coaching staffs, and the form gap is thin enough that Shanahan's scheme could just as easily be the difference — that's a clean, likely path to a Rams loss, which is why this stays Low rather than Med.
NE@SEA — Trip Nick took SEA
2026-09-09 · Week 2026-01 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Defending-champion "Super Bowl hangover" letdown spots in Week 1 are a real, recurring pattern, and Drake Maye entering a second full season with revenge motivation against the team that beat him is a clean, likely path to a flat SEA performance and an NE upset.
SEA@NE — Trip Nick took SEA
2026-02-08 · Week 2025-22 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Drake Maye elevated in the playoffs after cold regular-season tape and could play clutch in the Super Bowl (young QBs surprise in big moments); Mike Vrabel's scheme-design could neuter SEA's defensive-line advantage by game-planning Darnold into uncomfortable situations, letting NE's efficient offense execute.
LA@SEA — Trip Nick took SEA
2026-01-25 · Week 2025-21 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Darnold's oblique flares under 4Q pressure (affects footwork/throwing motion) while Stafford rallies with McVay's quick-hitting adjustments (slants, screens, PA bootlegs) to exploit SEA's aggressive secondary in critical moments — the Rams are a close-win team and won't collapse.
NE@DEN — Trip Nick took DEN
2026-01-25 · Week 2025-21 · PASS
Lost. NE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: NE takes an early lead, forcing DEN into a passing attack in cold/wind; Stidham minimizes mistakes and DEN's defense strangles the Patriots' offense into three-and-outs. But this scenario requires DEN to execute a perfect defensive A-game without their offensive rhythm—a lower-confidence path than the documented Nix-era strength.
HOU@NE — Trip Nick took NE
2026-01-18 · Week 2025-20 · PASS
Won. NE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Trent Brown plays full and HOU's run game controls the line of scrimmage, Stroud's settled starting role (vs Maye's ambiguous transition) and dominant recent form (6-0, +11.3 avg margin) allow HOU to neutralize pressure and steal a close game.
LA@CHI — Trip Nick took LA
2026-01-18 · Week 2025-20 · PASS
Won. LA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Caleb Williams replicates his 334-yd, +0.412 EPA efficient game vs DET with home-crowd amplification and Bears' defense getting stops against early Rams drives, grinding into a one-score game in the 4th quarter before Stafford has to execute in cold.
SF@SEA — Trip Nick took SEA
2026-01-17 · Week 2025-20 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SF's elite offensive line and Shanahan's scheme execution overcome the rest disadvantage—Purdy/Dobbs plays sharply, the pass game works despite the LB injuries, and Seattle's secondary falters in a high-leverage playoff game (their recent wins include 1-point and 2-point escapes that suggest tight margin vulnerability).
BUF@DEN — Trip Nick took DEN
2026-01-17 · Week 2025-20 · PASS
Won. DEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Allen's elite arm talent and his +0.614 EPA performance against this defense in week 19 prove decisive despite the altitude and foot injury; the Bills' pass rush (even compromised) shuts down Denver's play-action early, forcing Nix into negative EPA situations.
HOU@PIT — Trip Nick took HOU
2026-01-12 · Week 2025-19 · PASS
Won. HOU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rodgers settles into rhythm early (Hall of Famer talent is real) and Watt forces Stroud into first-quarter mistakes; Steelers' home crowd disrupts HOU's communication and execution.
SF@PHI — Trip Nick took SF
2026-01-11 · Week 2025-19 · PASS
Won. SF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hurts plays sharp at full health in a rested playoff game at home, Philly's offensive line holds despite injuries, and their defense steps up after last week's loss with early stops or turnovers.
LAC@NE — Trip Nick took NE
2026-01-11 · Week 2025-19 · PASS
Won. NE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Khalil Mack (elite pass rusher) pressures Maye into turnovers; Herbert plays clean despite hand injury and passes find Keenan Allen on a Patriots' secondary already dinged. This would require an outlier Chargers road performance against a Pats team that just dominated the Dolphins.
BUF@JAX — Trip Nick took JAX
2026-01-11 · Week 2025-19 · PASS
Lost. BUF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Josh Allen extends plays into chaos outside the pocket and BUF's defense forces turnovers on limited blitz opportunities; this path worked before (Pitt +19, NYJ +27) but is less likely against JAX's elite D and hot QB.
GB@CHI — Trip Nick took CHI
2026-01-10 · Week 2025-19 · PASS
Won. CHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Love delivers a motivated, sharp playoff game relying on short-intermediate routes and YAC, while GB's defense (despite depth losses) executes effectively to stifle CHI's run and mobile attack, keeping the game tight.
LA@CAR — Trip Nick took LA
2026-01-10 · Week 2025-19 · PASS
Won. LA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bryce Young protects the ball and hits intermediate routes (matching his 0.589 EPA vs ATL with 251 yds, 3 TD), wind forces Rams into a run-heavy game they don't dominate, and Panthers' home crowd tilts chaos toward the underdog in a single-elimination spot.
BAL@PIT — Trip Nick took PIT
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. PIT won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lamar Jackson's legs neutralize the pass-rush edge if the Ravens establish their A-game: run-heavy script (60%+ carries), clock control, minimal passing. The recent +17 domination at Green Bay and +24 shutout of Cincinnati both feature run-first execution; if replicated here, Watt and the pass rush become a sunk resource.
WAS@PHI — Trip Nick took PHI
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Lost. WAS won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Backup QB volatility (both Johnson and McKee unproven in this game context) and WAS's run game exploiting an Eagles' front seven thinned by injury could produce a closer result than WAS's 4-12 record suggests.
DAL@NYG — Trip Nick took DAL
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Lost. NYG won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Both DAL RBs out forces one-dimensional passing; Dak takes 35+ drops behind a damaged OL (Bass Out, Smith/Booker playing hurt) and could face sustained blitzes. But NYG is 3-13 and Dart has shown no competence to exploit that window — he's been under duress in 4 of his last 5 starts and turned it over; coordinating a pass-rush scheme is beyond their current roster.
MIA@NE — Trip Nick took NE
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. NE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McDaniel is a creative offensive mind who just guided Ewers to a +3 road win (Tampa); a scheme-driven game plan + Dolphins' desperation could keep this closer than the baseline read suggests, especially if Ewers avoids pressure.
GB@MIN — Trip Nick took MIN
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. MIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Love plays at full health and the OL holds up better than the injury report suggests, his elite arm and LaFleur's scheme can dissect MIN's non-elite defense—the documented A-game that beat them 23–6.
KC@LV — Trip Nick took KC
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Lost. LV won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oladokun is untested (only 1 recent start, a loss) and a single early turnover or red-zone failure could hand momentum to an opponent desperate to reverse a 0-6 skid.
ARI@LA — Trip Nick took LA
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. LA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: ARI's defense forces an early turnover and stays competitive early (turnover-luck spike), but the documented 451-point rate makes regression likely; Stafford counters and ARI's offense lacks depth to catch up.
TEN@JAX — Trip Nick took JAX
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: TEN's defense forces a low-volume, game-script loss (JAX goes up early and runs the clock), but TEN's documented recent A-game is 1-5 over six games (thin CLE win, KC-loss context unclear); they don't have a shutdown identity to hang a win on.
IND@HOU — Trip Nick took HOU
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. HOU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Leonard finds an early rhythm or the Texans' secondary (missing starting CB Lassiter) has communication breakdowns in coverage; Stroud takes early INTs or the Texans beat themselves with penalties, keeping the game competitive into the fourth quarter.
LAC@DEN — Trip Nick took DEN
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. DEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Herbert plays and manages the hand injury adequately, LAC's explosive offensive identity (Harbaugh's play-calling, recent +17 wins) and his elite QB execution eliminate DEN's edge.
CLE@CIN — Trip Nick took CIN
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Lost. CLE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: CLE executes their run-heavy gameplan and keeps Burrow off the field in a low-scoring 13–10 or 16–13 affair—exactly the ugly identity they've shown they can play when fully committed.
DET@CHI — Trip Nick took CHI
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Lost. DET won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jared Goff is a veteran who has managed pressure before, and Amon-Ra St. Brown remains elite talent despite his knee; if Chicago's secondary (McCloud, Brisker questionable) breaks coverage early, quick-hitting checkdowns and screens could keep Detroit closer than the structural OL collapse implies.
NYJ@BUF — Trip Nick took BUF
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. BUF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rookie Brady Cook executes error-free (unlikely given tape), and NYJ's defense—the worst-in-league all season—inexplicably generates a turnover spike on Trubisky to keep the game tight. But NYJ's defense has no documented strength in turnover creation; this path doesn't match their A-game, only a massive outlier.
NO@ATL — Trip Nick took ATL
2026-01-04 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. ATL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If New Orleans generates unexpected pressure from a compromised DL and Shough executes mistake-free against Atlanta's weakened secondary (Terrell, London, Mooney all questionable), the Saints stay close — but this requires error-free execution from an offense missing two top-tier skill players, which they have not demonstrated in this season or the November rematch.
CAR@TB — Trip Nick took TB
2026-01-03 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Won. TB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Baker Mayfield avoids the pass rush despite the shoulder and limited OL, and the Buc defense (despite missing Dean and Nelson) generates critical stops leveraging home-field crowd noise—the Buc pattern of close losses (mostly 1–3 points) indicates they're executing within arm's reach and could flip this easily.
SEA@SF — Trip Nick took SF
2026-01-03 · Week 2025-18 · PASS
Lost. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Trent Williams is limited or out, Seattle's elite pass rush could overwhelm SF's OL, generating consistent pressure that disrupts Purdy's rhythm and creates turnover opportunities. Darnold's flawless play (6-0 in last 6) and Seattle's elite defense could exploit this weakness and flip the game.
LA@ATL — Trip Nick took LA
2025-12-29 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. ATL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kirk Cousins limits turnovers, the Falcons' rushing attack grinds methodically at home, and the Rams' OL injuries cascade into a slugfest the Falcons steal — the Falcons have shown they can win close road games (TB 29-28, ARI 26-19).
NO@TEN — Trip Nick took TEN
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. NO won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ward's rookie turnover-proneness (sack-strip or critical INT) unravels TEN's run-game script and lets Shough + NO steal a close game despite the Kamara loss.
CHI@SF — Trip Nick took SF
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Won. SF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If the Bears' defense survives the illness cluster and executes enough coverage discipline to force the 49ers into pass-heavy looks (sidelining the run game), and George Kittle's ankle limits SF's intermediate threats, Caleb Williams could use the rest advantage to keep the game within one score or steal it—the Bears' A-game is gritty, close-margin defense, and they've shown they can win that way (2-3-point wins vs MIN/PIT).
NE@NYJ — Trip Nick took NE
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Won. NE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Justin Fields' knee clears and he plays fully healthy, his mobility creates coverage problems NE's secondary may not solve. However, a backup QB with DNP status remains the highest-variance spot in football, and NYJ's 3-12 record offers no documented A-game that beats NE.
TB@MIA — Trip Nick took MIA
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Won. MIA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Evans and Godwin exploit Miami's depleted secondary (Fitzpatrick and Isaiah Johnson both out) and Baker stops the bleeding to hit explosive plays downfield, allowing Tampa to pull off a road upset.
NYG@LV — Trip Nick took LV
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. NYG won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dart has proven capable in tight games despite poor OL health (MIN –3 one week ago), and the Giants' pass rush can still disrupt Geno through interior blitzes despite DT injuries; Geno reverts to his pre-Houston form (four consecutive 7–17 point losses) and does not sustain the upward trend suggested by the close HOU game.
JAX@IND — Trip Nick took JAX
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Won. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: IND's run-first identity (Steichen system) could theoretically control clock and wear down JAX's secondary (Lewis out, corners limited) on play-action, but this path requires Goodson (RB) to be healthy (he's questionable with an ankle) and the OL to sustain drive blocks with center and guard both Out — a steep roster requirement. JAX's defense just held DEN to 20 and TEN to 3; even compromised, it is elite.
PIT@CLE — Trip Nick took PIT
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. CLE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sanders executes mistake-free football on a short field in a low-scoring game; Steelers' secondary, thinned at CB (Ramsey questionable, Pierre and Echols out) and missing Watt's run-stop presence, surrenders sustained drives from a desperate home team in a division spot.
ARI@CIN — Trip Nick took CIN
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Won. CIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Burrow misfires (recent 0-24 shutout to Baltimore a week prior shows the downside) and CIN's weakened pass rush (Ossai out) allows ARI's ground game to grind enough clock to keep the game closer than talent warrants.
SEA@CAR — Trip Nick took SEA
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Darnold under sustained backside pressure forces an INT or sack on early drives; Young manages game efficiently from behind, CAR steals a close home win (20-17 type game).
PHI@BUF — Trip Nick took BUF
2025-12-28 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. PHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jalen Hurts escapes pocket pressure and finds receivers in Bills' thinned secondary (Poyer out for range and help), while Eagles' pass rush exploits Phillips' absence and generates negative Allen plays — but this path requires Hurts to overcome the OL degradation that his recent 1-3 form (CHI -9, LAC -3) suggests is a consistent vulnerability, not a one-game variance.
HOU@LAC — Trip Nick took LAC
2025-12-27 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. HOU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stroud's documented A-game — elite mobility, quick-release decision-making, and his current 6-0 dominance — allows him to overcome the OL disaster, and HOU's elite defense forces LAC's passing game one-dimensional, then clamps the run attack.
BAL@GB — Trip Nick took GB
2025-12-27 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. BAL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: BAL's volatile defense (24-0 road shutout, 10-0 home dominance vs NYJ) forces Willis into negative plays on an injured OL while the run game finds space and script stays close. Huntley manages without turnovers and special teams breaks fall BAL's way.
DAL@WAS — Trip Nick took WAS
2025-12-25 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. DAL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dallas comes out emotionally flat and unmotivated after short rest and a blowout loss; Johnson doesn't immediately self-destruct; WAS plays a clean, defensive-heavy script and steals it at home. However, Johnson leading a comeback against Dak contradicts WAS's documented A-game (a 4-11 team that has scored poorly all season). This requires multiple unlikely alignment, not a clean path to a WAS win.
DET@MIN — Trip Nick took DET
2025-12-25 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Lost. MIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: DET's offensive line completely fails — Decker and Manu both unavailable — and Goff absorbs hits that force turnovers. MIN's defense converts one or two of those into scores in a defensive slugfest, keeping the game sub-field-goal range.
DEN@KC — Trip Nick took DEN
2025-12-25 · Week 2025-17 · PASS
Won. DEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Denver's 34–20 home loss to Jacksonville last week signals a potential decline or letdown; Kansas City plays at home in a divisional game for pride/draft position, and a backup QB in a low-stakes game can get lucky—especially if the run game (and Andy Reid's creativity) keep the chains moving early.
SF@IND — Trip Nick took SF
2025-12-22 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Won. SF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: IND's rushing attack and defensive grind keep it close early, but Rivers' protection deficit (Raimann out) forces negative passes where SF's pass rush closes in, allowing Purdy's efficiency to separate.
KC@TEN — Trip Nick took KC
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. TEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Andy Reid's coaching + Minshew's quick-game / run-heavy attack-plan mitigates OL exposure; KC leans into motion concepts, RPO, and short routes to negate pressure and grinds a 20–17 victory. KC's talent advantage (record, point differential) is absorbed by technical game-planning.
MIN@NYG — Trip Nick took MIN
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Won. MIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Minnesota's damaged offensive line fails under pressure; McCarthy reverts to his November lows; Dart delivers one competent outing and the Giants steal a low-scoring home game on special teams + turnover luck.
NYJ@NO — Trip Nick took NYJ
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. NO won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The Jets' road collapse continues. A Saints team that is 3-0 at home in its last three games (all close) can survive via defensive discipline and game-management—short routes, checkdowns, turnover avoidance. The dome environment neutralizes travel, and the crowd amplifies execution difficulty for a visiting team in freefall.
CIN@MIA — Trip Nick took MIA
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. CIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cincinnati's 32-14 demolition of Baltimore proves Burrow can execute a clean, dominant game when the run game (Perine) controls tempo and sustains drives. A well-rested, efficient Burrow performance with clock control could neutralize Miami's spread-heavy scheme and expose Miami's thin secondary (Minkah out, Campbell limited). This is CIN's documented A-game path—and it's real.
LV@HOU — Trip Nick took HOU
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Won. HOU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Geno plays through the shoulder, hits deep balls on a limited Texans secondary (Stingley DNP/limited), and the Raiders' defense forces turnovers to stay competitive — but Geno is 0-5 in recent form and the Raiders have no documented turnover-creation A-game, making this a weak path.
PIT@DET — Trip Nick took DET
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. PIT won.
Documented risk, written before the result: PIT's remaining pass rush or a hot Rodgers day (one of those 22-point wins from last 6) could flip if DET's secondary (Joseph out, Robertson limited) gets exposed; but this doesn't match DET's documented A-game (elite-offense blowouts vs WAS/DAL), and PIT hasn't shown a clean structural path to a win like that recently.
JAX@DEN — Trip Nick took DEN
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Denver's six-straight close wins (+1 to +8) are a turnover-luck and elite-defense coat of paint on a mediocre offense (342 PF vs Jax's 376). If that luck regresses, Jax's superior offensive efficiency and Trevor Lawrence's proven arm talent can punish Denver's LB depth (Strnad/Reid both out) with vertical passing and seam exploitation — a clean match to Jax's documented A-game (spread concepts, aggressive passing).
LAC@DAL — Trip Nick took LAC
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Won. LAC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dak executes turnover-free football at home in the dome, letting Dallas's high-octane offense (29.1 ppg pace) overwhelm a LAC defense exposed three weeks prior (JAX blowout) — the Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb and Javonte Williams gameplan lands.
BUF@CLE — Trip Nick took BUF
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Won. BUF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shedeur Sanders throws a competent game (he beat LV +14 once) and the Browns' pass rush (Myles Garrett, elite EDGE) creates enough disruption to keep the margin tight. But Sanders is 1-3 in his last four starts and trending down, not up—the LV win was an outlier, not a breakout.
TB@CAR — Trip Nick took TB
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. CAR won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Ikem Ekwonu is unavailable or plays severely compromised, Carolina's pass protection degrades, Young's limitations are exposed, and Baker Mayfield connects with his elite receiving trio in a higher-scoring affair won by Tampa Bay.
NE@BAL — Trip Nick took BAL
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. NE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If the Ravens' OL holds up and Stanley plays through his knee, Lamar's ability to extend plays outside the pocket and create with his legs represents a clean, documented path to a Ravens upset at home.
ATL@ARI — Trip Nick took ARI
2025-12-21 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. ATL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Brissett avoids turnovers in a hostile environment, and ATL's thin receiver room (Drake London Q, two others out) stalls against ARI's pass rush, forcing Cousins into uncomfortable third-downs that ARI converts via turnover or red-zone opportunism.
PHI@WAS — Trip Nick took PHI
2025-12-20 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Won. PHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Eagles' compromised OL (Lane Johnson out, Cameron Williams questionable) forces Hurts into a pass-heavy approach, and Commanders' crowd noise disrupts play-calling; Mariota avoids turnovers and keeps it competitive in his documented mode (close losses to Broncos -1, Dolphins -3). Eagles' recent inconsistency (two losses before the LV blowout) shows execution risk.
GB@CHI — Trip Nick took GB
2025-12-20 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Lost. CHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jordan Love executes a mistake-free passing game out of quick-hitting play-action despite the fractured OL, and Green Bay's secondary (Xavier McKinney, Jaire Alexander) neutralizes Chicago's thinned receiving corps, stealing this one on road execution that defies the fundamental positional disadvantage.
LA@SEA — Trip Nick took SEA
2025-12-18 · Week 2025-16 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SEA's elite pass rush (Williams, Reed, Morris, Hall all expected) overwhelms Rams' OL regardless of Cross availability, interior pressure collapses Stafford's timing, and Seahawks' run game + Darnold's efficiency control the clock; SEA pulls out a close home division win.
MIA@PIT — Trip Nick took PIT
2025-12-15 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. PIT won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Miami's quick-hitting passing attack (Hill/Smith screens and slants) gets into rhythm early and forces Pittsburgh to abandon the run, allowing Rodgers to face a James Pierre–compromised secondary on the periphery. If Miami controls TOP and forces Pittsburgh into pass-only situations, Miami's weapons exploit the gap left by Watt's absence.
TEN@SF — Trip Nick took SF
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. SF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: TEN's defense forces early field position via turnover, Tony Pollard sustains drives with 80+ rushing yards to keep Ward off the field in a low-scoring game, and SF's missing edge rushers allow extended scoring plays; TEN steals a 13-10 escape. This path is plausible but requires TEN to execute their A-game (conservative, field-position dependent) while SF regresses from dominant recent form—unlikely given the talent gap.
IND@SEA — Trip Nick took SEA
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: IND's defensive coordinator could deploy aggressive blitz looks to disrupt SEA's timing, but the dossier shows no evidence IND can pressure elite QBs—recent losses to HOU (20–23) and JAX (19–36) came from defensive breakdowns and run-game failures, not schematic wrinkles that work.
LV@PHI — Trip Nick took PHI
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. PHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If wind severely degrades Hurts' downfield accuracy and the Eagles' passing attack collapses entirely while Pickett avoids multiple turnovers and the Raiders' defense (averaging 55 points allowed per game) records a rare stop, the Eagles underperform. However, this doesn't describe a likely Raiders A-game path—it's hoping the Eagles break, not that Las Vegas dominates.
WAS@NYG — Trip Nick took NYG
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Lost. WAS won.
Documented risk, written before the result: NYG's home crowd + Jameis Winston relief arm could accelerate one explosive drive, and WAS's historically bad defense (27.2 PPG allowed) could surrender 24+ points despite an anemic offense, leaving WAS vulnerable to late NYG scoring in a coin-flip fourth quarter.
CAR@NO — Trip Nick took CAR
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Lost. NO won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shough executes a clean, mistake-free game at home with dome crowd support, and CAR's narrow-margin pattern (all recent wins by 3) fails to repeat—especially against a division rival that already beat them 17-7 five weeks ago.
BUF@NE — Trip Nick took NE
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Lost. BUF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Allen elevates to his ceiling in a division rematch, attacking downfield vertically while exploiting Spillane's foot injury (questionable LB, limited practice) to expose NE's middle coverage; his L-17 loss to Miami and L-4 to Houston are flukes, and a W19/W12 performance (Pittsburgh/Tampa) repeats instead.
DET@LA — Trip Nick took LA
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. LA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Campbell's run-heavy attack with 10 days rest seizes field position early and DET's secondary, despite the safeties, survives through scheme and coverage angles — the 10-day gap is real and DET teams at home with prep time are tough.
LAC@KC — Trip Nick took KC
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Lost. LAC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mahomes' elite mobility and Andy Reid's quick-release schemes overcome the OL crisis via short routes and zone-read action; KC's home dominance at Arrowhead supplies the winning margin.
NYJ@JAX — Trip Nick took JAX
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Brady Cook plays above rookie baseline (no critical turnovers in his first start) and Jacksonville takes a letdown spot against a 3-10 team despite playoff positioning — but neither pattern matches the documented fundamentals (NYJ's recent wins came with veteran QBs, not rookie composure; JAX's 5-1 stretch shows no evidence of complacency).
ARI@HOU — Trip Nick took HOU
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. HOU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: ARI's defense forces an early turnover (recovery TD or pick-six) to spike the game temperature, or Brissett's short-area timing keeps drives alive long enough that the run game (Demercado available) grinds clock and keeps Stroud on sideline — but that path requires ARI to execute their A-game (time-of-possession smash-mouth), and they've shown zero consistency at executing anything (1-5 with margins of −3, −3, −19, −22, −28).
GB@DEN — Trip Nick took DEN
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. DEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Denver's defense forces turnovers and has been winning tight games; if Love turns it over 2+ times or Denver's D replicates a dominant 20-point caliber performance (unsupported by recent 1–3 point margins), Denver wins outright.
MIN@DAL — Trip Nick took DAL
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Lost. MIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Minnesota's defense could generate early pressure and control the clock if Dallas plays lethargic; however, that scenario doesn't align with the Vikings' recent A-game—they've struggled to generate consistent pass rush and McCarthy on the road has not shown the execution to overcome it.
BAL@CIN — Trip Nick took BAL
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. BAL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Burrow repeats his recent dominant form (as in that 32-14 win) and CIN's offense stays efficient without Higgins, allowing them to outscore a Ravens team still reeling from that embarrassing home loss and now on a two-game skid.
CLE@CHI — Trip Nick took CHI
2025-12-14 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Won. CHI won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shedeur Sanders exceeds his rookie-sample ceiling with efficient quick-hitting play-action and design runs that sidestep the Bears' pass rush, while CLE's defense forces a turnover or stalls Chicago's methodical offense.
ATL@TB — Trip Nick took TB
2025-12-11 · Week 2025-15 · PASS
Lost. ATL won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kirk Cousins bounces hard off an aberration game and Atlanta's secondary (A.J. Terrell healthy, full participation) generates enough havoc on Baker—who has been erratic all year (3-3, wide loss-margin swings)—to keep this close or turn it, especially with Atlanta's own home-crowd familiarity in a division rematch.
PHI@LAC — Trip Nick took PHI
2025-12-08 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Lost. LAC won.
Documented risk, written before the result: If Herbert's hand is merely precautionary and he plays at full effectiveness, LAC imposes its home-field advantage and offensive firepower (recent wins +27, +15, +17), catching the Eagles in a potential letdown spot after consecutive losses (DAL, CHI).
NO@TB — Trip Nick took TB
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Lost. NO won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mayfield's shoulder injury flares unexpectedly mid-game, forcing Tampa into shorter, dumpier routes; New Orleans' defense forces an early turnover and steals a short-field score to keep it closer than fundamentals. However, Mayfield was full participation all week, just threw 20+ points through the shoulder vs Arizona seven days ago, and New Orleans' defense is bottom-3—they lack the personnel to engineer a coordinated turnover-forcing attack against a fully healthy QB at home.
MIA@NYJ — Trip Nick took MIA
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Won. MIA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: NYJ's edge rush (Johnson, McDonald both full) finds pressure on Tua behind a potentially weakened center (Brewer Q/limited), stalling drives if MIA stumbles early and allowing NYJ to steal a low-scoring division game.
WAS@MIN — Trip Nick took MIN
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Won. MIN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McCarthy is a young QB on concussion clearance in a 4-game losing streak. If he regresses or the Vikings' limited run game (Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler both limited/questionable) forces McCarthy into a pass-heavy volume situation where he struggles, Mariota's poise and WAS's recent competitive margins could flip this to an upset road win.
DEN@LV — Trip Nick took DEN
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Won. DEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Crosby plays healthy at full mobility and Adams both suit up, generating consistent interior pressure and forcing Nix into early turnovers that Vegas converts to field position—but this requires both star-defenders to clear game-time decisions at full capacity, which a 2-10 team's infection-level injuries make unlikely, AND Geno Smith to execute efficiently against a pressure scheme, which the six-game loss sample shows he cannot do.
HOU@KC — Trip Nick took KC
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Lost. HOU won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mahomes escapes early pocket pressure (his career signature) and uses elite arm talent to neutralize HOU's thinned secondary (Reed out, Lassiter Q), especially if KC's OL guys play through the Doubtful tags; KC's run game (Pacheco healthy) also establishes rhythm if HOU's pass rush doesn't set the tone immediately.
IND@JAX — Trip Nick took JAX
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Won. JAX won.
Documented risk, written before the result: IND's intact O-line and superior passing volume (357 PF vs 292 PF season total) allow Daniel Jones to dictate pace and exploit JAX's thin secondary (Wingard out, Murray questionable), especially if IND's pass rush doesn't generate pressure on Lawrence.
CHI@GB — Trip Nick took GB
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Won. GB won.
Documented risk, written before the result: GB's neutered pass rush (4 DL rotational guys unavailable) allows Williams time on play-action rollouts; CHI's OL dominance + Johnson's misdirection scheme systematically attack a secondary now thin at corner depth (Hobbs questionable), and Williams' mobility keeps chains moving in a close game.
TEN@CLE — Trip Nick took CLE
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Lost. TEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shedeur Sanders, inexperienced and behind a shredded OL, gets pressured early and compounds critical errors; Cam Ward (a talented prospect despite the 0-6 start) avoids turnovers, Pollard runs effectively, and TEN's record regresses toward its true talent level enough to steal the game.
CIN@BUF — Trip Nick took BUF
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Won. BUF won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Burrow's one prior game was a +18 home win vs BAL—he could be sharp—but his first road game in Buffalo cold off IR is a lower-confidence execution profile, especially against Allen's mobility and a Bills defense playing zone without Bernard (LB, Out).
PIT@BAL — Trip Nick took BAL
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Lost. PIT won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Aaron Rodgers plays like his Week 11 Cincinnati game (dominant 34-12 win) instead of his recent -15/-19 blowouts, and Pittsburgh's pass rush corners force Jackson into negative plays or turnovers despite missing Harmon.
SEA@ATL — Trip Nick took SEA
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Won. SEA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: SEA's recent dominance includes softer opponents (WAS 38-14, ARI 44-22, MIN 26-0 shutout); road complacency or an early Cousins rhythm could allow ATL's dome crowd to tighten it in the first half.
LA@ARI — Trip Nick took LA
2025-12-07 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Won. LA won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gannon's aggressive defensive scheme could generate early chaos and force Stafford mistakes; however, Arizona's recent 1-5 stretch (losses by 22 to SEA, 19 to SF, losses in their last four) shows they cannot sustain defensive intensity even at full strength, and missing Collier/Nolen removes the pass-rush fulcrum.
DAL@DET — Trip Nick took DAL
2025-12-04 · Week 2025-14 · PASS
Lost. DET won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Detroit's elite defense (structurally demonstrated by a +76 PF/PA differential) is built to stop the run and force passing; if they shut down Dallas' ground game early, Dallas' secondary without Trevon Diggs will be exposed to Goff and Campbell's aggressive scheme, allowing Detroit to steal a close game despite their injuries.
NYG@NE — Trip Nick took NE
2025-12-01 · Week 2025-13 · PASS
Won. NE won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dart reintegrates cleanly from the concussion and avoids early turnovers; the Giants' offense (despite Daboll's scheme struggles all year) executes a game plan that stresses Maye's decision-making, and a rookie error (pick-six or red-zone INT) lets NYG stay close or steal a 17-14 escape. However, this path doesn't match the Giants' documented A-game — they haven't won a game in 6 tries, and their offense is turning the ball over and getting out-leveraged consistently, not outscheme-ing elite defenses.
DEN@WAS — Trip Nick took DEN
2025-11-30 · Week 2025-13 · PASS
Won. DEN won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mariota's veteran poise + Dan Quinn's secondary play-calling + Washington's home crowd could manufacture a low-scoring, disciplined first half; if Denver's offense misfires early (Payton's system stalls, Nix turnover), Washington executes a 17–14 grind and forces Denver into a must-drive 4th quarter where Mariota doesn't implode.
