Trip NickNFL · Updated Jul 24, 2026 · 12:12 PM
PLAYS+94.5uATS 173-148-3 · 333 plays · every pick, posted before the gameW1 streakLast 10: 8-2
2026: 20-8 (71%) · All-time 377-191 (66%) · 568 graded picks
A play is a star-sized spread bet, staked by stars at −110. Everything else on the card is a tracked lean for calibration, never bet.
THE RECORD377-191 (66%) · 568 picksPlays 227-106 (68%)ATS 282-260-5 · plays 173-148-3ATS vs baseline 274-280-5 (+2.6 pts)Units +94.5u (n=198)
SU vs baseline model +0.4 pts (all picks)Backlog 198 pendingUnits basis: star-sized ATS plays at -110
Star-tier performance — is bigger sizing earning its keep?
| Tier | Picks | Plays | SU | ATS | Units (plays, -110) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5★ | 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | +9.5u |
| 8.0★ | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | +8.0u |
| 7.5★ | 3 | 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | +6.8u |
| 7.0★ | 5 | 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 | +5.6u |
| 6.5★ | 5 | 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 | +5.2u |
| 6.0★ | 5 | 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 | -7.8u |
| 5.5★ | 13 | 13 | 10-3 | 8-5 | +13.7u |
| 5.0★ | 11 | 11 | 7-4 | 7-4 | +13.0u |
| 4.5★ | 12 | 12 | 9-3 | 8-4 | +16.2u |
| 4.0★ | 11 | 11 | 7-4 | 5-6 | -6.4u |
| 3.5★ | 25 | 25 | 17-8 | 14-11 | +6.6u |
| 3.0★ | 13 | 13 | 9-4 | 6-7 | -5.1u |
| 2.5★ | 30 | 30 | 19-11 | 21-9 | +27.8u |
| 2.0★ | 33 | 33 | 23-10 | 18-14-1 | +5.2u |
| 1.5★ | 30 | 30 | 20-10 | 14-15-1 | -3.8u |
| Overall | 198 | 198 | 133-65 | 113-83-2 | +94.5u |
Team power ratings — Trip Nick's adjusted power board with offseason notes (32 teams)
| # | Team | Adjusted | Base | Book | Offseason note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE Patriots | 1639.4 | 1599.4 | +1.6 | consensus most-improved — Vrabel/McDaniels regime, ~$128M spree (M.Williams/Landry/Davis/Diggs/Moses), Campbell/Henderson draft, year-2 Maye leap projected |
| 2 | HOU Texans | 1636.6 | 1606.6 | +1.2 | rebuilt-on-the-fly OL after Tunsil trade, Diggs gone, Mixon on NFI; Kirk/Chubb/Robinson patches + new OC Caley; small step back on the lines |
| 3 | SEA Seahawks | 1633.6 | 1673.6 | -1.6 | Geno->Darnold skeptic-lateral; DK/Lockett out + new Kubiak scheme; Kupp/Lawrence + A-grade Zabel/Emmanwori draft |
| 4 | LA Rams | 1624.1 | 1609.1 | +0.6 | Adams-for-Kupp swap + Humphries; Stafford August disc flare + A.Jackson blood clots health asterisk |
| 5 | BUF Bills | 1611.2 | 1606.2 | +0.2 | MVP continuity, Allen locked up; Bosa/Palmer + A- defensive draft; minor losses, Ogunjobi/Hoecht suspensions |
| 6 | DEN Broncos | 1610.8 | 1610.8 | +0.0 | trendy riser — year-2 Nix growth, Payton continuity, Hufanga/Greenlaw (both injury-flagged) + Engram + Barron onto a top-3 defense |
| 7 | JAX Jaguars | 1580.4 | 1572.9 | +0.3 | Coen a clear coaching upgrade, Lawrence bounce-back priced in, all-in Travis Hunter trade + OL vets; sleeper in a weak AFC South |
| 8 | SF 49ers | 1579.7 | 1559.7 | +0.8 | mass exodus Deebo/Greenlaw/Hufanga/Ward/Banks/Hargrave; Saleh back + health snap-back partial offset; Aiyuk PUP |
| 9 | LAC Chargers | 1579.4 | 1529.4 | +2.0 | Harbaugh year-2 optimism + Najee/Becton/Hampton; Bosa/Ford/Dobbins/Samuel out, Slater season-ending knee, M.Williams retired in camp |
| 10 | PHI Eagles | 1569.0 | 1559.0 | +0.4 | champion erosion: Sweat/M.Williams/Slay/CJGJ/Graham out + first-time play-caller Patullo; core intact |
| 11 | DET Lions | 1557.7 | 1555.2 | +0.1 | lost BOTH coordinators + Ragnow retired + Zeitler/Davis out; roster ran back off 15-2 base |
| 12 | CHI Bears | 1546.9 | 1534.4 | +0.5 | Ben Johnson hire + Thuney/Jackson/Dalman OL rebuild + Loveland/Burden B+ draft; consensus best offseason |
| 13 | WAS Commanders | 1543.0 | 1463.0 | +3.2 | Tunsil + Deebo + Von Miller all-in on Daniels window; McLaurin extended Aug 26; full staff continuity |
| 14 | BAL Ravens | 1537.2 | 1544.7 | -0.3 | preseason AFC favorite on continuity — Lamar/Henry back, Hopkins/Alexander added, Starks/Green value draft; Tucker cut for rookie kicker |
| 15 | MIN Vikings | 1529.4 | 1554.4 | -1.0 | Darnold->McCarthy zero-snap QB (-1.8; widest variance +/-1.5) vs A+ trench spree Kelly/Fries/Allen/Hargrave |
| 16 | PIT Steelers | 1514.5 | 1514.5 | +0.0 | splashiest AFC North offseason — Rodgers in, DK/Ramsey/Jonnu/Slay imported, Pickens/Minkah/Najee out; previews still 9-11-win Tomlin band |
| 17 | CIN Bengals | 1512.1 | 1482.1 | +1.2 | Chase/Higgins extended keep elite passing attack; Hendrickson holdout to late Aug, Stewart holdout, defense lost Hubbard/Pratt — same top-heavy team |
| 18 | DAL Cowboys | 1510.3 | 1457.8 | +2.1 | Parsons traded + Martin retired + Lawrence/Lewis out; Dak health snap-back + Pickens/Clark partial offset; first-time HC |
| 19 | GB Packers | 1502.6 | 1530.1 | -1.1 | Parsons acquired Aug 28 (elite non-QB +2.7); minus Clark/Jaire; Watson starts season out |
| 20 | NYG Giants | 1492.5 | 1430.0 | +2.5 | Wilson/Winston fix historically bad QB room + Adebo/Holland + Abdul Carter A-grade draft; off 3-14 floor |
| 21 | NO Saints | 1478.2 | 1443.2 | +1.4 | Carr retired May 10 -> Rattler named starter Aug 26; rookie HC Moore; league-worst ~4.5 total |
| 22 | CAR Panthers | 1476.3 | 1436.3 | +1.6 | worst-2024-defense rebuild (Moehrig/Wharton/Brown) + McMillan WR1 + Canales continuity; low base |
| 23 | TB Buccaneers | 1474.0 | 1481.5 | -0.3 | Reddick + Egbuka vs 4th straight new OC and opening without Godwin/Wirfs/J.McMillan |
| 24 | ATL Falcons | 1470.6 | 1475.6 | -0.2 | Penix full season modest upgrade + Walker/Pearce edge dip; Jarrett/Dalman/Judon/Simmons out; 2026-1st cost panned |
| 25 | TEN Titans | 1451.1 | 1363.6 | +3.5 | Cam Ward #1 overall + rebuilt OL (Moore/Zeitler) real upgrade on 2024 QB disaster; still bottom-two roster, ~3-14 projections |
| 26 | KC Chiefs | 1448.2 | 1490.7 | -1.7 | Mahomes/Reid untouched but Thuney traded, LT bet on Moore vs rookie Simmons, Rice suspension cloud; still priced a 13-win contender |
| 27 | IND Colts | 1445.8 | 1470.8 | -1.0 | Daniel Jones over banged-up Richardson = lateral atop most-mocked QB room; Bynum/Ward + A- draft (Warren) offset interior-line losses |
| 28 | CLE Browns | 1419.7 | 1427.2 | -0.3 | 40-yo Flacco named QB1 mid-Aug (mild upgrade on 2024 carousel); praised Graham/Judkins draft; Watson cap albatross, 4.5-win total, worst AFC roster |
| 29 | LV Raiders | 1418.9 | 1356.4 | +2.5 | Geno a 'colossal upgrade' + Carroll/Kelly credibility jump + Jeanty at #6; heavy secondary losses (Moehrig/Hobbs), defense still bottom-ranked |
| 30 | NYJ Jets | 1410.7 | 1365.7 | +1.8 | full reset — Rodgers/Adams/Reed out, Fields in (lateral), Glenn culture + Membou/Taylor draft respected; 5.5 win total priced it a wash |
| 31 | ARI Cardinals | 1401.2 | 1396.2 | +0.2 | Sweat/Tomlinson/Campbell defensive spree + Nolen-W.Johnson draft; Nolen PUP Wks 1-4 haircut |
| 32 | MIA Dolphins | 1352.2 | 1459.7 | -4.3 | quiet teardown — Ramsey/Jonnu traded, Armstead retired, Campbell/Holland gone; Minkah + Grant/Savaiinaea partial offset; McDaniel/Tua hot seat |