Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Prediction

Houston should beat Tennessee on Sunday by about four points. Both teams are 0-4, so somebody leaves Nissan Stadium with a first win, and we think the Texans have the better quarterback situation and the better pass rush. The catch is that Houston's defense has fallen apart in coverage, its head coach just took over the defensive play-calling, and its best defender did not practice Wednesday. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How both teams got to 0-4

Houston has lost three times at home and once on the road. The Texans fell 36-31 to Buffalo, 20-6 to Cincinnati and 34-30 to Dallas in Houston, and lost 19-17 at Indianapolis in a game where the Colts turned the ball over three times. That is a hard schedule, and only the Cincinnati game got away from them.

Tennessee's first season under head coach Robert Saleh has started the same way. The Titans lost 23-10 to the Jets and 24-20 to Philadelphia at home, then 12-7 at the Giants in a storm and 24-18 at Baltimore. The last three losses came by four, five and six points, so this team has been closer than its record lately.

Houston's case

The Texans' best argument is their passing game with Nico Collins back. Collins missed two of the first four games and returned against Dallas with seven catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns. By expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, Houston ranks 15th per dropback on the season, and the passing game was far more explosive against Dallas with Collins back. That was one game against a bad defense, so we are not treating it as a new normal.

The front is still a strength. Houston ranks fifth in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits and 10th against the run. The Texans win when the rush gets home and C.J. Stroud hits Collins downfield.

The problems are real, though. The run game ranks 30th in EPA per rush at 79 yards per game, and pass protection has slipped from eighth a year ago to 21st. The Texans also took 13 penalties for 90 yards against Dallas.

Tennessee's case

The Titans keep games low and close. Their defense ranks ninth in points allowed, and their pass protection has been a real strength, ranking third in the rate of sacks plus hits allowed. Second-year quarterback Cam Ward has had time to throw, and Carnell Tate has become his one reliable target after catching nine passes for 145 yards at Baltimore.

The trouble is scoring. Tennessee averages 13.8 points per game, which ranks 31st, and its passing game ranks 26th by EPA per dropback. The offense had six three-and-outs in ten drives at the Giants. The defense has also been easier to throw on than the points suggest, ranking 28th in pass EPA allowed and 23rd in pass rush.

Tennessee wins this game by dragging it into the fourth quarter within one score. It loses the way it has lost all year, by not scoring enough.

Injuries and lineup news

Both starting quarterbacks are set. C.J. Stroud starts for Houston and Cam Ward starts for Tennessee, and neither carries an injury designation. Houston signed Mark Gronowski on Wednesday as depth.

The biggest name on either report is Houston edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., who did not practice Wednesday with an ankle injury. He plays about 80 percent of the defensive snaps, and the next man up, Dominique Robinson, has been a depth player. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (groin) missed Week 4 and was limited. Defensive ends Clowney and Logan Hall, both with knee injuries, were limited as well. Tank Dell remains on injured reserve with his practice window open and is not being counted on.

For Tennessee, safety Amani Hooker is in the concussion protocol and did not practice. He has played nearly every defensive snap, and his replacement, Erick Hallett, has been a depth player. Running back Tony Pollard (foot) also sat out. Jeffery Simmons and John Franklin-Myers did not practice with back issues that Saleh described as maintenance, so we expect both to play. Cornerback Marcus Harris did not practice and safety Kevin Winston Jr. (shoulder) was limited. Both of the Titans' early-season starting guards, Jackson Slater and Fernando Carmona, are on injured reserve.

The forecast for Nashville calls for temperatures in the low 60s, light wind with gusts around 16 mph and about a 45 percent chance of rain at kickoff. We do not expect weather to decide the game.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that three things decide this game. The first is Stroud and Collins against a Tennessee pass defense that ranks 28th and may be missing Hooker at safety. That is the best unit matchup on the field for either team, and Ward's offense has not shown it can answer with points of its own.

The second is the line of scrimmage. Houston's pass rush against a Tennessee line using replacement guards favors the Texans if Anderson plays. If he sits, that matchup is much closer to even, and Simmons against Houston's interior line becomes Tennessee's best path to disrupting Stroud.

The third is the counterweight. Houston's defense finished last season second in points allowed and first against the pass by EPA. Through four games it ranks 26th in points allowed at 27.2 per game and 25th against the pass. DeMeco Ryans has taken the defensive play-calling from coordinator Matt Burke this week, citing communication problems. We think that slide is real and we shaded our number toward Tennessee because of it, but the Titans' offense is poorly built to take advantage. Neither team has a rest or travel edge on a short divisional trip. Add it up and we have Houston by about four.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is that we are picking a winless road team with a struggling defense. Houston has allowed 36, 20, 19 and 34 points, its head coach is changing the play-calling in the middle of a season, and Anderson may not play.

If Anderson sits and Simmons plays, a low-scoring division game in possible rain is exactly how Tennessee gets its first win. Houston's run game has not been good enough to close out a lead, so even a game the Texans control early could stay tight late. Friday's practice report and the inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff matter here, and Anderson, Al-Shaair, Hooker, Simmons and Pollard are the names to watch.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Houston Texans

Azeez Al-Shaair, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 76 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: K.C. Ossai, who has not played a snap this season.

Will Anderson Jr., defensive end, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 78 percent, 80 percent, 79 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Dominique Robinson, who has seen little action.

Jaden Crumedy, defensive tackle, on the practice report (shoulder): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 7 percent, 20 percent, 28 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Mario Edwards Jr., who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Jadeveon Clowney, defensive end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, 38 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ali Gaye, who has not played a snap this season.

Logan Hall, defensive end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 37 percent, 38 percent, 38 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kayden McDonald, who has not played a snap this season, and he is also on the injury report.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Braden Smith, Kayden McDonald, Nate Thomas, Jamal Hill, Tank Dell, Jaylin Smith.

Tennessee Titans

Amani Hooker, safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 98 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Erick Hallett II, who has seen little action.

Jeffery Simmons, defensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 87 percent, 98 percent, 83 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Nazir Stackhouse, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Kevin Winston Jr., safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Tony Adams, who has seen little action.

Jackson Slater, guard, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 0 percent, 98 percent, did not play.

John Franklin-Myers, defensive end, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 43 percent, 53 percent, 59 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Keldric Faulk, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Marcus Harris, cornerback, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 63 percent, 53 percent, 53 percent.

Tony Pollard, running back, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 55 percent, 53 percent, 53 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Tyjae Spears, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Joshua Williams.

The verdict

We expect Houston to win by about four points, driven by Stroud and Collins against a thin Tennessee secondary and a Texans pass rush facing replacement guards. Will Anderson Jr.'s ankle is the swing factor, and if he cannot go this looks much closer to an even game. This is a forecast, not an official play.