Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

Denver should beat Los Angeles on Sunday by about three points. The Broncos are 2-2 and have not played well away from home, but the Chargers are 0-4 and their biggest weakness, pass protection, just got worse with left tackle Rashawn Slater out for weeks and two more starting linemen missing practice. Denver has injury trouble of its own at cornerback, which keeps this close. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How the two teams got here

Denver is 2-2 under Sean Payton with Bo Nix at quarterback, and the split is clean. The Broncos lost 31-10 at Kansas City, beat Jacksonville 20-13 at home, beat the Rams 30-26 at home and lost 24-14 at San Francisco. Both wins came at home by one score. Both road games were double-digit losses.

Los Angeles is 0-4 under Jim Harbaugh with Justin Herbert at quarterback. The Chargers lost 26-14 at home to Arizona, lost 26-14 at home to Las Vegas, lost 24-16 at Buffalo and lost 30-23 at Seattle. None of the four games was closer than a touchdown, and the two home games were the worst of the group. Both teams come in on normal rest.

Denver's case

The best thing Denver does is protect its quarterback. The Broncos have allowed a sack or a quarterback hit on only 13 percent of dropbacks, the second-best rate in the league, and Nix was not sacked and was hit only twice at San Francisco. That matters a great deal this week, because rushing the passer is the one thing the Chargers do very well.

The rest of the offense is below average. Denver ranks 23rd in passing efficiency per dropback and 27th in scoring at 18.5 points per game. Sutton has not been productive, and with Pat Bryant doubtful the passing game leans on Waddle, Mims and Harvey out of the backfield.

The defense has slipped from last season. Denver ranks 31st against the run by efficiency and gives up 142.8 rushing yards per game, with the pass defense 15th and the pass rush 11th. The Broncos win when Nix stays clean and the rush gets home. They lose when they fall behind on the road and have to throw to catch up.

Los Angeles' case

The Chargers' defense is the better half of the team. Their pass rush ranks third in the league, getting a sack or a hit on 30 percent of dropbacks, and the run defense ranks 13th. The 26.5 points per game they allow is inflated in part by short fields handed over by their own offense.

That offense is the problem, and it starts up front. Los Angeles has allowed a sack or a hit on 29 percent of dropbacks, the worst rate in the league, and Herbert took 10 hits and 4 sacks at Seattle. The passing game ranks 29th in efficiency, the running game ranks 25th, and the team scores 16.8 points per game.

Turnovers have piled on. The Chargers have given the ball away nine times in four games, including three by Herbert at Seattle in a game that also featured 16 penalties. They even took the ball away five times at Buffalo and still lost by eight. Los Angeles wins by getting to the quarterback and forcing mistakes. It loses when Herbert is hit and gives the ball away.

Injuries and lineup news

Both starting quarterbacks are set. Bo Nix starts for Denver, with Sam Ehlinger as his backup, and Justin Herbert starts for Los Angeles.

The Chargers' offensive line is the biggest injury story in this game. Left tackle Rashawn Slater, who played every snap in Weeks 2 and 3, has a high ankle sprain and is reported to be out four to six weeks. Whether he is formally placed on injured reserve is not confirmed. Right tackle Joe Alt (neck) and left guard Trevor Penning (concussion protocol) both missed Wednesday's practice, and the next men up are Logan Taylor and Travis Burke. The receivers are hurt too. McConkey (foot) did not practice and is considered week to week, Johnston (chest) was limited, and Njoku and Lambert-Smith are on injured reserve. On defense, Derwin James, Cam Hart and Donte Jackson are listed as questionable, with no detail available yet on James or Hart.

Denver's concern is at cornerback. Pat Surtain II (ankle) is doubtful and did not practice. An earlier report that he was headed to injured reserve has been contradicted. Payton said he does not expect that, and the estimate is a two-game absence. Riley Moss (ribs) is questionable, and the replacements would be Jahdae Barron and Kris Abrams-Draine. Receiver Pat Bryant (ankle) is doubtful.

All of this comes from Wednesday's reports. Thursday and Friday practices and the final game designations are not in yet. Weather is not a factor because SoFi Stadium has a fixed roof.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that one matchup decides this game: Denver's pass rush against a Chargers line that was already last in the league in protection and is now missing its left tackle, and possibly its right tackle and left guard as well. That is a roster problem, not a slump, and it is the main reason we lean to Denver.

The second matchup pushes the other way. Denver may be without both outside cornerbacks, which would normally be a real opening for Herbert. We think the advantage is real but small, because the Chargers' receivers are banged up and the protection may not give Herbert time to use it.

The third is strength against strength. The Chargers' pass rush is their best unit, and Denver's protection is its best unit, which limits the main way Los Angeles wins games. The counter for the Chargers is the ground game against Denver's 31st-ranked run defense, but Los Angeles has not run the ball well and the line injuries hurt there too.

We also expect the Chargers' turnover total to ease a little, though not much, since many of those giveaways come from the same pressure problem. Add it up and we have Denver by about three.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is the injury report breaking the Chargers' way. If Joe Alt and Trevor Penning are both cleared by Friday while Surtain and Moss both sit, Herbert gets a workable pocket against two backup cornerbacks. That is a very different game from the one we are picturing.

In that case the Chargers' pass rush could also hold down a Denver offense that scores 18.5 points per game and has lost both of its road games by double digits. That combination would turn this into a coin flip or even a lean to Los Angeles.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Denver Broncos

Pat Bryant, wide receiver, doubtful: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 66 percent, 70 percent, 36 percent.

Pat Surtain II, cornerback, doubtful: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 44 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jahdae Barron, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Riley Moss, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 98 percent, 100 percent, 52 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kris Abrams-Draine, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Jonah Coleman, running back, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 40 percent, did not play, did not play.

Adam Trautman, tight end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 65 percent, 40 percent, 45 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Nate Adkins, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Dondrea Tillman, linebacker, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 31 percent, 31 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jonathon Cooper, who has not played a snap this season.

Los Angeles Chargers

Rashawn Slater, offensive tackle, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 85 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Logan Taylor, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Cam Hart, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 78 percent, 85 percent, 98 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Rodney Shelley, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Charlie Kolar, tight end, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 62 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Oronde Gadsden, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Derwin James Jr., safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 83 percent, 100 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Tony Jefferson, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Joe Alt, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 37 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Travis Burke, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Quentin Johnston, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 81 percent, 87 percent, 75 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Trevor Penning, guard, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 43 percent, 100 percent, 61 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kayode Awosika, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Alec Ingold, fullback, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 41 percent, 45 percent, 35 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Scott Matlock, who has not played a snap this season, and he is also on the injury report.

Donte Jackson, cornerback, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 59 percent, 27 percent, 12 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Deane Leonard, who has seen little action.

Kayode Awosika, guard, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 74 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Logan Taylor, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Ladd McConkey, wide receiver, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 46 percent, 88 percent, 34 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Brenen Thompson, who has seen little action, and he is also on the injury report.

Dalvin Tomlinson, defensive tackle, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 40 percent, did not play, did not play.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Brenen Thompson, Trey Lance, Branson Taylor, Scott Matlock.

The verdict

We expect Denver to win by about three, driven by its pass rush against a Chargers line that is missing Rashawn Slater and may be missing more. Denver's own injuries at cornerback and its poor road form keep the margin small. The names to watch on the inactive list are Alt, Penning, Surtain, Moss, McConkey and Derwin James. This is a forecast, not an official play.