Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction

The Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Chargers at Lumen Field on Sunday, October 4, at 4:25 PM ET. Our read, locked on September 28 before we saw any market number, is that Seattle wins by about 6 points. The three things driving it are quarterback play, injuries and current form. The market makes Seattle about a 7 point favorite, a little more than our number, so this is a forecast and not an official play.

Seattle is 2-1 and Los Angeles is 0-3. The Chargers lost 26-14 to Arizona in Week 1, 26-14 to Las Vegas in Week 2 and 24-16 at Buffalo in Week 3, so their offense has not scored more than 16 points in any game this season.

Seattle's case

Sam Darnold is back under center. Drew Lock started the first two games, and Darnold's first full game of the season came in Week 3 at Washington, where he completed 31 of 45 passes for 379 yards and four touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 passes for 128 yards and two scores in that game and has six touchdown catches through three weeks. In our view he is a weekly difference-maker.

The defense is the steadier half of this team. Through Week 3, Seattle has allowed 16.7 points and 228.7 total yards per game, ranking third and first in the league, and its run defense has been the league's most efficient by expected points per play. Seattle beat New England 13-10 in Week 1 and won 31-7 at Arizona in Week 2. The running game has been the weak spot, at 101 yards per game.

The Chargers' case

The Chargers' defense is real. Safety Genesis Smith intercepted Josh Allen twice in the first quarter of that game. Los Angeles forced five Buffalo turnovers and still lost, and its six takeaways through three weeks rank second in the league. With Tuli Tuipulotu, Khalil Mack and Derwin James, this group can change a game quickly.

The problem is the other side of the ball. Justin Herbert has been sacked eight times and hit 20 more times in three games, and the offense has turned the ball over six times. The Chargers average 14.7 points per game, which ranks 29th. At Buffalo they reached the red zone four times and scored one touchdown.

Injuries and lineup news

Chargers. On the team's first practice report of the week (September 30), left guard Kayode Awosika (fibula), defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson (hamstring), cornerback Donte Jackson (concussion), tight end Charlie Kolar (forearm), defensive lineman Justin Eboigbe (eye) and receiver Brenen Thompson (quadriceps) did not practice. Mack sat out for rest. Derwin James (hamstring), Ladd McConkey (foot), running back Keaton Mitchell (ankle) and Elijah Molden (hamstring) were limited. ESPN reported on October 1 that McConkey was not spotted at practice. Tackle Trey Pipkins III (knee), center Tyler Biadasz and tight end David Njoku are on injured reserve, per ESPN's injury list. Herbert is not on the injury report.

Seahawks. Darnold is not on the injury report. Safety Julian Love (calf), who missed the Washington game, was limited on September 30 and said on October 1 that he expects to play. Safety Ty Okada (hamstring) did not practice. Guard Grey Zabel, defensive tackle Jarran Reed and running backs George Holani and Jadarian Price were limited. Zach Charbonnet opened his practice window on October 1 but is not eligible to play until next week.

How the game should play out

This is our interpretation. Seattle's pass rush and top-ranked defense face a Chargers line that has struggled to protect Herbert and is now missing more starters. If Seattle keeps Herbert under pressure and makes the Chargers drive the length of the field, a team averaging under 15 points has a hard time keeping up with Darnold and Smith-Njigba at home. Mild wind should not take the passing game away from either team.

The key risk

The Chargers' defense is healthy enough to make this close. Washington beat Seattle 33-31 in Week 3 by forcing three turnovers, including two Darnold interceptions, the second a 50-yard pick-six late in the fourth quarter. If Tuipulotu, Mack and the Chargers' secondary take the ball away from Darnold the same way, this can turn into a close, low-scoring game with a real chance of an upset.

The verdict

We expect the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Los Angeles Chargers by about 6 points. Our number is close to the market's, which makes Seattle about a 7 point favorite, so there is no official play on this game. Watch the final injury designations for James and McConkey.