Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

Kansas City should win in Las Vegas on Sunday by about 4.5 points. Both teams are 3-0 and both starting quarterbacks are healthy, but Patrick Mahomes has been the sharper passer and the Chiefs come in with fewer injury questions. The market makes Kansas City about a 4.5 point favorite, the same as our number, so there is no official play on this game. This is our forecast only.

How both teams got to 3-0

Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 in Week 1, needed overtime to beat Indianapolis 33-30 in Week 2 and won 24-10 at Miami in Week 3. Las Vegas beat Miami 27-13 in Week 1, won 26-14 at the Chargers in Week 2 and rallied from a 27-16 deficit to win 35-27 at New Orleans in Week 3. Both teams average 29.3 points per game through three weeks, according to our tables built from nflverse play-by-play data.

Kansas City's case

Mahomes has been efficient. He completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns at Miami. The Chiefs rank second in the league in yards per game (416.3) and first in rushing efficiency measured by expected points added per rush, a measure of how much each run helps the offense. Kenneth Walker III scored twice against Miami, once on the ground and once as a receiver, and Rashee Rice caught seven passes for 88 yards. The defense has allowed 16.7 points per game, third fewest in the league.

Our read is that the quarterback edge, a steadier offense and a healthier lineup are the main reasons to favor the road team. Kansas City posted a positive efficiency number in competitive time in all three games, while Las Vegas was below average in its win over the Chargers.

Las Vegas's case

The Raiders have earned their record. Kirk Cousins threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns at New Orleans, and Brock Bowers caught 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown in his season debut after a knee procedure, a game that earned him AFC Offensive Player of the Week. The defense forced four turnovers in that win. Through three weeks it ranks second in the league against the pass by expected points allowed per dropback, second in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits, and first with nine takeaways.

The weakness has been the run game. Las Vegas averages 3.7 yards per carry, and Ashton Jeanty ran 19 times for 56 yards at New Orleans.

Injuries and lineup news

Kansas City's first Week 4 practice report, dated September 30, lists left tackle Josh Simmons (back) as not practicing. He has not played this season while recovering from a bulging disc, so the Chiefs have won all three games without him. Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (knee) was limited. Mahomes (knee), defensive tackle Chris Jones (calf), defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah (quad), Rice (knee) and defensive back Chamarri Conner (knee) were all full participants.

For Las Vegas, guard Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) did not practice September 30 after leaving the New Orleans game late, when Caleb Rogers replaced him. Backup quarterback Aidan O'Connell missed practice for a personal reason. Receiver Jack Bech went on injured reserve September 29 with a fractured forearm, and receiver Dont'e Thornton Jr. has been on injured reserve since August 31. Jeanty (ankle) and safety Treydan Stukes (concussion) were full participants. Final game statuses were not yet published at the time of writing.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation: the Raiders' receiver group is thinner after the Bech injury, which puts more of the passing load on Bowers, Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor. Jones and Anudike-Uzomah at full practice should help Kansas City against a Las Vegas line that may be without Powers-Johnson. Allegiant Stadium is a domed venue, so weather should not be a factor.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is Bowers commanding the middle of the field while Jeanty's carries keep Las Vegas on schedule and turn into red zone trips. The Raiders are 3-0 and scored 35 points in their last game, so a home upset is a real path. Their pass rush is also a concern. Kansas City allowed a sack or quarterback hit on about one of every five dropbacks in Weeks 1 and 3, and the Raiders' rush has been among the most disruptive in the league.

The verdict

We expect Kansas City to win by about 4.5 points. The market makes Kansas City about a 4.5 point favorite, the same as our number, so there is no official play on this game.