Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Prediction

Houston should edge Dallas at home on Sunday by about 3 points. The Texans are 0-3 and the Cowboys have the better passing game, but Houston gets Nico Collins back against a thin Dallas secondary, plays at home and catches a Cowboys team returning from Brazil. The market has Houston favored by 3, the same as our number, so there is no official play on this game. This is our forecast only.

How both teams got here

Dallas arrives at 1-2. The Cowboys lost 28-20 at the New York Giants in Week 1, bounced back with a 37-20 win over Washington in Week 2 and then lost a 34-31 shootout to Baltimore in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday. Houston is still looking for its first win. The Texans lost 36-31 to Buffalo, managed only six points in a 20-6 loss to Cincinnati and then fell 19-17 at Indianapolis in Week 3.

The records point to different problems. Dallas can score with almost anyone but has struggled to get stops. Houston has kept games close, two of its three losses were by one score, but its offense has averaged just 18 points per game. Something has to give at NRG Stadium.

Dallas's case

The Cowboys are built around Dak Prescott and the passing game. With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on the outside, Dallas ranks fourth in the league in expected points added per dropback, a measure of how much each pass play helps the offense. The protection has held up as well, ranking fourth in our pass blocking measure even with left guard Tyler Smith on injured reserve with a thumb injury. Javonte Williams leads the backfield, and the run game has been about league average.

The 37 points against Washington and the 31 against Baltimore show what this offense looks like when it is rolling. If Prescott has time, Dallas has the receivers to attack any secondary, and a Houston coverage unit missing its every-down linebacker is a tempting target. Through three weeks, early-season form has favored the Cowboys, and our forecast gives them credit for that.

The trouble is the other side of the ball. The Dallas defense ranks 31st in the league against the pass by expected points allowed per dropback and 31st in rushing yards allowed, and its pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league. That is how a team scores 31 and still loses.

Houston's case

DeMeco Ryans has built his defense around a four-man pass rush, and Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter remain the engine. Houston ranks fifth in pressure rate and eighth against the run by expected points, and Anderson was a full participant in practice this week. When that front wins, the Texans can control field position, create turnovers and keep a game in their comfort zone. They forced strip sacks in the narrow loss at Indianapolis.

The offense is the bigger question. C.J. Stroud has played behind a line that ranks 21st in pass protection, and the run game ranks 27th. The best news for Houston is the return of Nico Collins, who missed Weeks 2 and 3 and practiced fully at the end of the week with no injury designation. Collins against this Dallas secondary is the clearest path for the Texans to put up more points than they have all season.

Home field matters here too. Dallas made the long return trip from Brazil after last week's game, while Houston traveled only to Indianapolis.

Injuries and lineup news

Both starting quarterbacks, Prescott and Stroud, are active with no injury designation.

Dallas has ruled out linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) for a third straight week and cornerback Cobie Durant (hamstring). Safety Jalen Thompson, safety P.J. Locke, defensive tackle Jonathan Bullard and guard Tyler Smith are on injured reserve, with Smith targeting a Week 5 return. There is some help in the secondary: safety Malik Hooker and cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. were cleared, and cornerback Joey Porter Jr., acquired in a trade with Pittsburgh, is expected to make his Cowboys debut after only a few days to learn the playbook.

Houston's biggest loss is linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (groin), who is out. Al-Shaair had played nearly every defensive snap and wears the green dot helmet, which means he relays the defensive calls. Rookie Wade Woodaz is in line for his first career start. Safety M.J. Stewart (knee) is also out, and defensive tackle Mario Edwards Jr. and running back British Brooks are on injured reserve. Edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney (knee) and Logan Hall (knee), linebacker Jake Hansen and guard Ed Ingram (groin) are questionable. Tackle Trent Brown practiced fully. Inactive lists arrive about 90 minutes before kickoff, and the Houston questionable group is the one to watch.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation comes down to three things. First, Houston's edge rush against Dallas's pass protection. If Anderson and Hunter can win quickly, they cover for a back seven playing without Al-Shaair. If the Dallas line gives Prescott time, a rookie linebacker making the calls is a real problem.

Second, Collins and Stroud against a Dallas secondary that has been reshuffled by injuries and is breaking in a new cornerback. A Houston offense that has struggled to finish drives finally gets its top receiver back against one of the league's weakest pass defenses.

Third, the setting. Houston is at home, and Dallas is coming off an international trip. NRG Stadium has a retractable roof, so weather is not a factor.

Our starting point leaned toward Houston on home field and the strength of the roster it carried into the season. We then took points away for the Texans' linebacker and interior defensive line losses and for Dallas's better early-season play, and added a little back for the Collins return and the Cowboys' travel. That lands on Houston by about 3, which is a field goal game and close to a coin flip with a lean to the home team.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is the Dallas passing game simply overwhelming a Houston defense that is missing its signal caller. Prescott has been throwing efficiently behind good protection, and if he finds Lamb and Pickens against a linebacker group led by a rookie in his first start, Houston's offense may not be able to keep pace even with Collins back. The Texans have not scored more than 31 points in any game, and they scored six against Cincinnati.

We should also be honest about what this forecast leans on. It gives weight to home field and to how good Houston looked coming into the season, more than to what either team has shown in the first three weeks. If the 2026 version of these teams is the true one, Dallas is very capable of winning this game outright.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 4 at 12:17 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Dallas Cowboys

DeMarvion Overshown, linebacker, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 74 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jaishawn Barham, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Cobie Durant, cornerback, out: a starter before this injury. Snap share over the last three games: 72 percent, 52 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Caelen Carson, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Jalen Thompson, safety, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 42 percent.

Malik Hooker, safety, on the practice report (forearm): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 17 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Juanyeh Thomas, who has not played a snap this season.

Caelen Carson, cornerback, out: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, 27 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Devin Moore, who has not played a snap this season.

Jonathan Bullard, defensive tackle, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 42 percent, 17 percent, 36 percent.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Camden Brown, Emari Demercado, Ajani Cornelius, James Houston, Tyler Smith, P.J. Locke.

Houston Texans

Azeez Al-Shaair, linebacker, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 76 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kenneth Murray Jr., who has not played a snap this season.

Jake Hansen, linebacker, on the practice report (knee): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 12 percent, 88 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Wade Woodaz, who has seen little action.

Nico Collins, wide receiver, on the practice report (hamstring): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 72 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jaylin Noel, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Mario Edwards Jr., defensive tackle, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 31 percent, 28 percent, 30 percent.

Jadeveon Clowney, defensive end, on the practice report (knee): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 34 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Ali Gaye, who has not played a snap this season.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Nate Thomas, Marlin Klein, Febechi Nwaiwu, Chris Braswell, British Brooks, M.J. Stewart.

The verdict

We expect Houston to win by about 3 points. The market has Houston favored by 3, the same as our number, so there is no official play on this game.