Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction

Dallas should beat Tampa Bay on Thursday night by about five points. The Cowboys bring one of the best passing offenses in the league into a home game against a Buccaneers team that is 0-4, is starting undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels in place of the injured Baker Mayfield and will be missing two starters in its secondary. The reason we do not have it wider is the Dallas defense, which has been bad enough to keep almost any opponent in a game. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How both teams got here

Tampa Bay is 0-4 under Todd Bowles, but the record is harsher than the games were. The Buccaneers lost 33-27 at Cincinnati, 23-19 to Cleveland, 23-16 to Minnesota and 17-14 to Green Bay. All four losses came by seven points or fewer, and three of them were at home. This is a team that has competed and lost, not one that has fallen apart.

Dallas is 2-2 and has been nearly as hard to pin down. The Cowboys lost 28-20 at the Giants, beat Washington 37-20, lost 34-31 to Baltimore and won 34-30 at Houston on a Lamb touchdown with 42 seconds left. That is one comfortable win and three one-score games. Both teams played Sunday, so the short week is equal, but only Tampa Bay has to travel.

Tampa Bay's case

The Buccaneers' path to a win runs through the ground game and the defense. Their run defense ranks fourth in the league by expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, and third in rushing yards allowed at 78.5 per game. Their own run game ranks 13th, and Bucky Irving gets a Dallas front that has been giving up 150 rushing yards a game.

Daniels adds to that with his legs. In his first start, against Green Bay, he ran eight times for 55 yards and threw a good off-script touchdown pass. If Tampa Bay can run the ball, shorten the game and keep the score in the teens or low twenties, it has shown it can hang around against anyone.

The problem is the passing offense. Tampa Bay ranks last in the league in EPA per dropback and 30th in pass protection, and most of that came with Mayfield under center. Daniels went 19 of 27 for 148 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Packers, and the offense scored 14 points at home. Receiver Jalen McMillan is on injured reserve, though Godwin, Egbuka, Otton and Irving are all active. When the Buccaneers fall behind and have to throw into pressure, they lose.

Dallas' case

The Cowboys win by scoring. They rank fifth in passing EPA per dropback and second in the league at 30.5 points per game, with pass protection ranked ninth and a run game ranked 10th. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards at Houston and CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards. George Pickens, Ferguson and Javonte Williams are all active as well.

The defense is the other side of the story. Dallas ranks last in the league against the pass by EPA allowed, 31st in rushing yards allowed and 28th in points allowed at 28.0 per game. Its pass rush ranks 26th. There are some reasons for hope: Joey Porter Jr. arrived by trade and has made his debut, Hooker is back, and Quinnen Williams gives the front a real force inside.

The pattern in the two losses is clear. Dallas loses when a competent passer trades scores with it, which is what Baltimore and the Giants did.

Injuries and lineup news

The quarterback news is the biggest item in this game. Mayfield dislocated his right thumb, on his throwing hand, in Week 3 and is out. The Buccaneers' own game preview confirms Daniels as the starter, which makes this his second career start, on a short week and on the road. Prescott is not on the injury report. He had his throwing hand stepped on at Houston, it checked out, and he is reported good to go.

Tampa Bay's secondary takes two hits. All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (ribs) is out after playing nearly every snap over the last three games, and Ifeatu Melifonwu, who has barely played on defense, steps in. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) is also out, with Ayden Garnes next up. Linebacker Dennis, a depth player, is out too. Kicker McLaughlin (groin) and linebacker Nelson (illness) are expected to play.

For Dallas, cornerback Durant, linebacker Overshown and tackle Shelton are out. Overshown has not played this season and Barham has been starting in his spot. Defensive tackle Bullard and safety Jalen Thompson are on injured reserve. The name to watch is All-Pro guard Tyler Smith (thumb), who is questionable. He is still on injured reserve with his return window open, was limited early in the week and was listed as full in Wednesday's walkthrough. Our forecast does not count him either way. Receiver Mingo (illness) is also questionable.

One thing we could not confirm is Tampa Bay's exact starting offensive line. AT&T Stadium is indoors, so weather is not a factor.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that two things decide this game. The first is quarterback. Prescott and a top-five passing offense are facing a rookie in his second start whose offense was already last in the league through the air. The biggest weakness Dallas has is its pass defense, and Tampa Bay is the team least equipped to attack it.

The second is availability. The Buccaneers are without their best defensive back and a starting corner against Lamb and Pickens. Film from the Houston game showed the Dallas line losing on third downs to Hunter and Anderson, but that is an elite pass rush. Tampa Bay's ranks 26th and is unlikely to cause the same trouble.

The counterweight is real, and it is why we stop at about five. Tampa Bay's run defense and run game both match up well against a soft Dallas front, and a strong run defense can make the Cowboys one-dimensional. Dallas has not been dominant, and the Buccaneers have stayed within a score of everyone they have played. Coaching and rest do not separate the two sides.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is that the Dallas defense is bad enough to make a rookie quarterback look functional. If Irving and Daniels control the clock on the ground and Tampa Bay's run defense forces Prescott to throw on every down, possibly without Tyler Smith, this turns into a one-score game that a single turnover could decide. Dallas has already lost twice this season as the better-rated team.

The forecast also depends on the quarterback news holding. If a different Tampa Bay quarterback starts, or Mayfield somehow returns, this read no longer applies. The inactive list, which comes out about 90 minutes before kickoff, will settle that along with Smith's status.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Antoine Winfield Jr., safety, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 92 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ifeatu Melifonwu, who has seen little action.

Baker Mayfield, quarterback, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 94 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jalon Daniels, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Josiah Trotter, linebacker, on the practice report (knee): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 83 percent, did not play, 83 percent. Next up on the depth chart: SirVocea Dennis, who has seen little action, and he is also on the injury report.

Benjamin Morrison, cornerback, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 2 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Ayden Garnes, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Ko Kieft, SirVocea Dennis.

Dallas Cowboys

DeMarvion Overshown, linebacker, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jaishawn Barham, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Jalen Thompson, safety, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 42 percent, did not play.

Cobie Durant, cornerback, out: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 52 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Caelen Carson, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Jonathan Bullard, defensive tackle, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 17 percent, 36 percent, did not play.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Drew Shelton, Tyler Smith, Jonathan Mingo.

The verdict

We expect Dallas to win by about five, driven by the gap at quarterback and by Tampa Bay's injuries in the secondary against one of the league's best passing offenses. The Buccaneers' run game, run defense and habit of playing close games keep this from being a blowout call. This is a forecast, not an official play.