Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction

Minnesota should beat Miami at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday by about 11 points. The Vikings are without Justin Jefferson, but the Dolphins just lost De'Von Achane for the season, and Minnesota's defense, one of the best in the league through three weeks, faces an offense that has scored 12 points per game. The market has Minnesota favored by 10, close to our number, so there is no official play on this game. This is our forecast only.

How Miami and Minnesota got here

Minnesota is 3-0 and carries an eight game winning streak that dates to Week 14 of last season. The Vikings opened by beating Green Bay 39-22 at home, won a 9-3 defensive grind at Chicago in Week 2 with Carson Wentz starting while Kyler Murray recovered from a Week 1 concussion, and beat Tampa Bay 23-16 on the road last Sunday. Miami is 0-3 under first year head coach Jeff Hafley. The Dolphins lost 27-13 at Las Vegas, 35-13 at San Francisco and 24-10 at home to Kansas City, and they are averaging 12.0 points per game, 31st in the league. Miami has also had a brutal opening stretch: this is only the second time in NFL history that a team's first four opponents all entered the game undefeated, according to the Dolphins' own preview.

Minnesota's case

This Minnesota team is built on defense, and the profile looks a lot like 2025. Through three weeks the Vikings have allowed 13.7 points per game, second fewest in the league, with six takeaways. By our tables built from nflverse play-by-play data, they rank 3rd in pass defense and 2nd in run defense by expected points allowed (a measure of how much each play helps or hurts the offense), and they lead the league in pressure rate. Brian Flores's front is the single biggest reason we favor Minnesota by a wide margin.

Special teams have helped too. Kicker Will Reichard has made 26 straight field goals, and Myles Price returned a punt 86 yards for a touchdown at Tampa Bay. Murray is healthy and starting. He completed 15 of 29 passes for 168 yards with a touchdown and an interception at Tampa Bay, his first full game since last October, and admitted afterward that he missed some throws. He also hit Jordan Addison for a 41 yard score on third and 8. Aaron Jones is healthy, and the Vikings play at home in a dome on a normal week of rest.

Miami's case

Miami's path runs through quarterback Malik Willis and a defense that has been better against the run than the record suggests. Willis has been uneven as a passer, completing about 57 percent of his throws with a 74.1 rating, but his legs are a real weapon. He ran nine times for 56 yards against Kansas City, and Hafley said this week that more designed runs will come situationally, game by game. The Dolphins' run defense ranks 9th by our tables, and it held Kenneth Walker III to 70 yards last week after he had topped 140 in each of his first two games. Rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, the 43rd overall pick, leads the team with 28 tackles.

The problem is everything else. Miami's pass offense ranks 22nd and its run offense 30th in our efficiency tables, and its pass defense ranks last. The Dolphins' losses share a theme: against good fronts, the offense could not sustain drives, with sacks from San Francisco's pass rushers and batted balls and failed fourth downs against Kansas City.

Injuries and lineup news

The biggest name out is Minnesota's Justin Jefferson, who sprained his right ankle in the first quarter at Tampa Bay and has been ruled out. Kevin O'Connell called him day to day but said the team will not rush him back. Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings and tight end T.J. Hockenson now carry the passing game. Minnesota is also without starting center Nick Samac and tight end Josh Oliver, both on injured reserve; Oliver tore his biceps and was valued for his in-line blocking. Cornerback Charles Demmings and punter Brett Thorson are out with hamstring injuries, so Johnny Hekker handles the punting. Linebacker Blake Cashman practiced fully and is expected to play.

Miami's losses hit just as hard. Running back De'Von Achane, the offense's one true explosive player, tore his ACL on the opening drive against Kansas City and is on injured reserve for the season. That leaves Ollie Gordon II, who had 41 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries last week, and Jaylen Wright. Rookie receiver Caleb Douglas is out again with an ankle injury, so Malik Washington, Chris Bell and Greg Dulcich are the main targets. Edge rusher Robert Beal Jr. and cornerback Storm Duck are out, and defensive tackle Kenneth Grant is on injured reserve. Center Aaron Brewer and edge rusher Chop Robinson carry no designation after full practices. Both starting quarterbacks, Willis and Murray, are active.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation: the decisive collision is Minnesota's pass rush against a Miami offense that has struggled every time it has faced a strong front and has just lost its only big play runner. If the Vikings can make Miami one dimensional early, Willis will be throwing into the league's most disruptive rush on obvious passing downs.

On the other side, Minnesota's offense is ordinary without Jefferson. It ranks 25th per dropback and 27th in pass protection by our tables, and it entered the week last in the league in passing yards per game. Miami is the right opponent for that offense, though, because the Dolphins rank 31st in pass rush pressure and last against the pass. That should give Murray time and keep Minnesota on schedule even without its best player. The injury news roughly cancels out: losing Jefferson costs Minnesota a little, and losing Achane and Douglas costs Miami about as much. U.S. Bank Stadium is a dome, so weather is not a factor. Put together, we expect Minnesota by about 11 points.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is a low scoring game. Minnesota won 9-3 at Chicago and 23-16 at Tampa Bay, and without Jefferson the Vikings may not have the firepower to pull away. If Willis turns scrambles into third down conversions, Miami avoids turnovers and its run defense holds up again, the Dolphins could keep this inside two scores even though Minnesota is the clear pick to win. Short fields from Miami mistakes are the most likely way the margin grows, and a clean game from Willis is the most likely way it shrinks.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 4 at 3:28 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Miami Dolphins

Caleb Douglas, wide receiver, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 91 percent, 86 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jalen Tolbert, who has seen little action.

Chris Bell, wide receiver, on the practice report (knee): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 52 percent, 41 percent, 71 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ryan Miller, who has seen little action.

De'Von Achane, running back, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 86 percent, 76 percent, 5 percent.

Robert Beal Jr., defensive end, out: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 21 percent, 38 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Andre Jones Jr., who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Brady Cook, Justin Joly, Marcellas Dial Jr., Chukwuebuka Godrick, DJ Campbell, Kenneth Grant and others.

Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson, wide receiver, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 92 percent, 100 percent, 12 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Tai Felton, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Blake Cashman, linebacker, on the practice report (elbow): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 96 percent, 89 percent, 97 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ivan Pace Jr., who has seen little action.

Jordan Addison, wide receiver, on the practice report (ankle): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 83 percent, 88 percent, 98 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Myles Price, who has seen little action.

Josh Oliver, tight end, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 65 percent, 60 percent, 41 percent.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Max Brosmer, Jakobe Thomas, Elijah Williams, Charles Demmings, Nick Samac.

The verdict

We expect Minnesota to win by about 11 points, driven by its pass rush against a Miami offense that has lost its best weapon. The market has Minnesota favored by 10, close to our number, so there is no official play on this game.