Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Prediction

This Monday night game in New Orleans is about as close to a coin flip as a division game gets, and we lean slightly to Atlanta, by about half a point. The case for the Falcons is simple: Michael Penix Jr. is back at quarterback, Bijan Robinson is running as well as anyone in the league, and the Saints will be missing three key players from their front seven against that run game. The case for New Orleans is a home dome, a passing game that moves the ball, and an Atlanta secondary playing without its top cornerback. The market has New Orleans favored by 1.5 while we lean slightly to Atlanta. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How both teams got to 1-2

Atlanta's record hides two very different teams. Without Penix, the Falcons lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh in Week 1, when Cooper Rush was sacked or hit on about a third of his dropbacks and the offense went 2 for 12 on third down. Week 2 was worse: a 34-3 home loss to Carolina in which Atlanta used three quarterbacks and turned the ball over five times. Then Penix returned from the torn ACL he suffered last November and the Falcons won 35-14 at Green Bay on September 24. They had no three-and-outs that night and succeeded on 65 percent of their plays, according to our tables built from nflverse play-by-play data.

New Orleans has been competitive in every game. The Saints lost 31-30 in overtime at Detroit in Week 1, won 24-17 at Baltimore in Week 2 without a turnover, and then lost their home opener 35-27 to Las Vegas on September 27 after turning the ball over four times in the fourth quarter.

Atlanta's case

With Penix under center, the Falcons look like a run-first, play-action team that can stay on schedule. At Green Bay he completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards with a touchdown and an interception, Robinson ran 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns, and Drake London caught nine passes for 194 yards. The protection held up too, allowing a sack or quarterback hit on only about one of every 25 dropbacks.

Through three weeks Atlanta ranks second in rushing yards per game (173.0) and sixth in rushing efficiency measured by expected points added per rush, a measure of how much each run helps the offense. The run defense has been even better: first in the league in rushing yards allowed (47.7 per game) and fifth by expected points allowed per rush. Atlanta wins by running the ball and protecting it. It has lost when the quarterback spot was unstable and the giveaways piled up; its eight giveaways rank near the bottom of the league, but most came in the two games without Penix.

New Orleans's case

Tyler Shough runs a functional passing game. The Saints average 281.3 passing yards per game, third in the league, and 27.0 points per game. Chris Olave is the outside threat, and Shough threw for 255 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas before the late collapse. At Baltimore the offense was efficient from start to finish and did not give the ball away once.

The concerns are protection and ball security. The Saints have allowed a sack or quarterback hit on roughly one of every five dropbacks in each game, and the line now has to protect without left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., and they have seven giveaways in three games, including two Shough lost fumbles against the Raiders. The defense has allowed 27.7 points per game and ranks 26th against the run by expected points allowed per rush, giving up 5.2 yards per carry. New Orleans wins when Shough is efficient and the Superdome crowd gets into it; it loses when it turns the ball over or when opponents can run on it.

Injuries and lineup news

Both starting quarterbacks are set. Penix carries no injury designation after starting and winning in Week 3, and Shough has no designation either.

The New Orleans injury report is the bigger story. On the final report released October 3, the Saints ruled out linebacker Kaden Elliss (calf), who had played every defensive snap over the previous three games, starting defensive end Carl Granderson (ankle) and edge rusher Anfernee Jennings (knee). Linebacker Pete Werner (shoulder and neck) is questionable after missing practice all week, and tight end Noah Fant (abdomen) is questionable after limited work. Running back Travis Etienne Jr., receiver Jordyn Tyson and left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. are on injured reserve, which leaves Alvin Kamara as the lead back. If Werner cannot go, the next man up at inside linebacker, Isaiah Stalbird, has played very few snaps this season.

Atlanta is without cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr., who is on injured reserve with a groin injury. Linebacker Divine Deablo (hamstring) is questionable after limited practices all week, edge rusher Samson Ebukam (hamstring) is questionable but was a full participant at the end of the week, and linebacker Yasir Abdullah is questionable with an illness. Werner, Deablo, Fant and Ebukam are the names to check when inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation: the decisive matchup is Atlanta's run game against a Saints run defense that was already struggling and is now missing its every-down linebacker, its best edge rusher and a second edge, with another starting linebacker in doubt. That is the main reason we moved this game toward Atlanta. Robinson's style punishes undisciplined fits, and a group with inexperienced linebackers is exactly where those mistakes show up.

The second factor is the quarterback change. Atlanta's season numbers still carry the two games without Penix, and we do not think they describe the team taking the field on Monday. The third is rest: Atlanta last played September 24, so it comes in with 11 days between games against eight for New Orleans. The trip is short, the game is indoors, and weather will not be a factor.

Working against Atlanta is its pass defense. Without Terrell, the Falcons have allowed 263 passing yards per game, 29th in the league, and Olave is the kind of receiver who can take advantage of that.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is how little we have seen of Penix this season. One strong game at Green Bay after a long ACL recovery is encouraging, but it is still one game. If Shough and Olave win on the outside against a secondary missing Terrell, New Orleans can stay ahead of the chains and keep Robinson from controlling the game, and then the Saints' missing linebackers matter much less. Werner and Deablo are true game-time decisions, and either one playing or sitting could shift the matchup in the middle of the field. Turnovers are the other swing factor for both teams: each has been loose with the ball, and in a game this close, one fumble could decide it.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 4 at 10:05 AM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Atlanta Falcons

Divine Deablo, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 82 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Christian Harris, who has seen little action.

Kendal Daniels, linebacker, on the practice report (achilles): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 67 percent, 62 percent, 38 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Harold Perkins Jr., who has already been playing a starter's share.

Samson Ebukam, defensive end, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 58 percent, 27 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jared Ivey, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Yasir Abdullah.

New Orleans Saints

Carl Granderson, defensive end, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 77 percent, 67 percent, 51 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Anfernee Jennings, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Kaden Elliss, linebacker, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Isaiah Stalbird, who has seen little action.

Julian Blackmon, safety, on the practice report (calf): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jonas Sanker, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Kelvin Banks Jr., offensive tackle, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 59 percent, did not play.

Alvin Kamara, running back, on the practice report (hamstring): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 29 percent, 32 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kendre Miller, who has seen little action, and he is also on the injury report.

Pete Werner, linebacker, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 52 percent, 93 percent, 27 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Danny Stutsman, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Anfernee Jennings, linebacker, out: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 23 percent, 29 percent, 26 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Chris Rumph II, who has seen little action.

Travis Etienne Jr., running back, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 59 percent, 54 percent, 38 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ty Chandler, who has not played a snap this season.

Christen Miller, defensive tackle, on the practice report (toe): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 32 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Khristian Boyd, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Noah Fant, tight end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 41 percent, 44 percent, 57 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Oscar Delp, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Barion Brown, Kendre Miller, Jordyn Tyson.

The verdict

We expect a tight Monday night game, with Atlanta winning by about half a point on the strength of its run game against a short-handed Saints front. The market has New Orleans favored by 1.5 while we lean slightly to Atlanta. This is a forecast, not an official play.