Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

Atlanta should beat Baltimore on Sunday night by two or three points, and that forecast rests on one condition: Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson has an ankle sprain, did not practice Wednesday and has not been ruled out, so his status is unsettled. If Jackson plays, this forecast no longer holds. With Huntley, Baltimore becomes a run-first offense behind a patched line, and it would be running into the best run defense in the league so far. This is a forecast, not an official play.

Where both teams stand

Baltimore is 3-1 under head coach Jesse Minter. The Ravens won 41-23 at Indianapolis, lost 24-17 at home to New Orleans, beat Dallas 34-31 in Rio and beat Tennessee 24-18 at home last Sunday. That is one dominant win, two one-score wins and a home loss to a Saints team that Atlanta just beat by 21.

Atlanta is 2-2 under head coach Kevin Stefanski, and its season splits cleanly in half. With Cooper Rush at quarterback the Falcons lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh and 34-3 at home to Carolina. With Michael Penix Jr. they won 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans on Monday night. Baltimore travels on normal rest. Atlanta is on a short week after that Monday road game, although the Sunday night kickoff softens it a little.

Baltimore's case

The Ravens' strength this season has been their offense, and it has been built with Jackson. By expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, Baltimore ranks second in the league per dropback. The protection ranks fourth in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits allowed, and the team is averaging 29 points per game. The run game ranks sixth.

Baltimore wins when Jackson creates explosive plays behind clean protection. It loses when the offense stalls, as it did against New Orleans, when three of its eight drives ended in three-and-outs. The defense has been ordinary: seventh against the pass by EPA allowed, 21st against the run and 17th in pass rush, with 24 points allowed per game. It was also flagged 13 times for 131 yards last week.

The case for the Ravens on Sunday starts with the chance that Jackson plays. If he does not, Huntley was sharp in relief, completing 8 of 9 passes for 63 yards, and Derrick Henry gives the offense a clear plan. The question is whether that plan can work against this opponent.

Atlanta's case

The Falcons' identity is the run game, which ranks first in the league in EPA per rush. Bijan Robinson went for 145 yards on Monday and Brian Robinson scored three times. The season passing rank of 31st looks bad, but most of that comes from the two Rush starts, which included five turnovers against Carolina. With Penix the offense has been efficient and the protection has held up. He completed 15 of 20 passes for 223 yards at New Orleans.

The defense is led by its run stoppers. Atlanta ranks first in EPA allowed per rush and first in rushing yards allowed at 48.2 per game. The pass defense is less convincing. It ranks 11th by EPA but 30th in yards allowed, and cornerback A.J. Terrell is on injured reserve.

Atlanta wins by running the ball and playing from ahead. It loses when the quarterback turns the ball over and the line gets beaten, which is what happened at Pittsburgh, where the Steelers sacked or hit the quarterback on 35 percent of dropbacks.

Injuries and lineup news

The quarterback news leads everything. Jackson did not practice Wednesday and Huntley took the first-team reps, according to the Ravens' official site. NFL Network reports Jackson has only an outside chance to play. Minter has said Jackson could play without practicing, and there is no official ruling yet. Penix has been Atlanta's announced starter since Week 3.

Baltimore's offensive line is patched in front of whoever plays quarterback. Center Jovaughn Gwyn is out two to three months and rookie Olaivavega Ioane is starting in his place. Newly acquired Cam Jurgens is in concussion protocol and has not played a snap for the Ravens. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley (toe, ankle and partly rest) and guard Andrew Vorhees (foot) did not practice Wednesday, left guard John Simpson (groin) was limited, and blocking tight end Durham Smythe went on injured reserve with a torn Achilles. On defense, cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) and edge rusher Trey Hendrickson (finger) sat out, and safety Kyle Hamilton (groin) was limited. The coach was optimistic about Humphrey and Vorhees.

Atlanta held only a walkthrough Wednesday, so its report was an estimate. Left tackle Jake Matthews (groin) and defensive end Za'Darius Smith (concussion, back) both left Monday's game in the first quarter and were listed as not practicing. The next tackle up, Michael Jerrell (ankle), and defensive end Cameron Thomas (shoulder) were listed as limited.

The game is indoors, so weather is not a factor. Friday's report and the inactive list about 90 minutes before kickoff will settle the names that matter most: Jackson, Matthews, Humphrey, Stanley, Hendrickson and Smith.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that three things decide this game if Huntley starts. The first is the quarterback change itself. Jackson is the engine of the Baltimore offense, and without him the Ravens lean on Henry and a run-first plan.

The second is where that plan leads. Henry managed 73 yards on 23 carries against Tennessee, and now he would face the top-ranked run defense in the league behind a line that is missing its center and may be missing its left tackle. Baltimore's fallback runs straight into Atlanta's best unit.

The third is the other side of the ball. Atlanta's top-ranked run game meets a Baltimore run defense that ranks 21st by EPA. That gives the Falcons a way to control the game even if Matthews cannot play.

There are counterweights, which is why we see a close game. Atlanta is on short rest. Its secondary gives up yards. Matthews and Smith are real losses if they sit, though Baltimore's own defensive injury questions offset part of that. We also did not give Atlanta extra credit for its two 21-point wins, because two games are a small sample. Add it up and we have Atlanta winning by two or three points.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is simple: Lamar Jackson plays. He has not been ruled out, and his coach said he could play without practicing. If Jackson is active, we would no longer stand behind this forecast. The game would tilt back toward Baltimore as a slight favorite, and we would treat it as too close to call.

The second risk is that we do not yet know how good Atlanta really is. The Falcons' two big wins came over Green Bay and New Orleans with Penix, right after a 34-3 home loss to Carolina with Rush. Their true level is still uncertain. And if Jake Matthews cannot play, the league's top run game loses its left tackle, which hurts the very thing Atlanta does best.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Baltimore Ravens

John Simpson, guard, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Andrew Vorhees, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Kyle Hamilton, safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 99 percent, 91 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Keyon Martin, who has seen little action.

Lamar Jackson, quarterback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 52 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Tyler Huntley, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Marlon Humphrey, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 99 percent, 86 percent, 12 percent. Next up on the depth chart: T.J. Tampa, who has seen little action.

Rashod Bateman, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 93 percent, 88 percent, 47 percent. Next up on the depth chart: LaJohntay Wester, who has seen little action.

Ronnie Stanley, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 79 percent, did not play, 97 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Carson Vinson, who has seen little action.

Trey Hendrickson, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 53 percent, 61 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Mike Green, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Zay Flowers, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 33 percent, 73 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Chris Moore, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Cam Jurgens, center, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Next up on the depth chart: Olaivavega Ioane, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Durham Smythe, tight end, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 55 percent, 53 percent, 28 percent.

Andrew Vorhees, guard, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 12 percent, 44 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Emery Jones Jr., who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Chris Moore, wide receiver, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 55 percent, 52 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Ja'Kobi Lane, who has seen little action.

Tyler Huntley, quarterback, on the practice report (ankle): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, 48 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Joe Fagnano, who has not played a snap this season.

Atlanta Falcons

Jake Matthews, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 19 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Michael Jerrell, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Cameron Thomas, defensive end, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 59 percent, 68 percent, 62 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Yasir Abdullah, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Michael Jerrell, offensive tackle, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 38 percent, 1 percent, 81 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Cameron Williams, who has not played a snap this season.

Za'Darius Smith, defensive end, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 42 percent, 50 percent, 1 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Cameron Thomas, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Yasir Abdullah, linebacker, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 45 percent, 23 percent, 50 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jalon Walker, who has not played a snap this season.

The verdict

We expect Atlanta to win a close game by two or three points, driven by the likely quarterback change in Baltimore, the Ravens' patched offensive line and a run matchup that favors the Falcons on both sides. All of that assumes Tyler Huntley starts. Lamar Jackson's status is unsettled, and the forecast changes if he plays. This is a forecast, not an official play.