New York Jets vs Chicago Bears Prediction

Chicago should beat the Jets at Soldier Field on Sunday by about 4 points. The Bears have the better roster and one of the league's most productive offenses, but Caleb Williams is out and backup Tyson Bagent is expected to start, while New York brings a sharp Geno Smith and a much improved defense. That narrows the gap considerably. The market has Chicago favored by 3.5, close to our number, so there is no official play on this game. This is our forecast only.

How both teams got here

Chicago is 2-1. The Bears opened the season with a 59-37 shootout win at Carolina, lost a 9-3 grinder at home to Minnesota in Week 2 and then beat Philadelphia 27-7 at Soldier Field in Week 3 with Case Keenum at quarterback. Through three weeks the Bears average 29.7 points per game, fifth in the league.

The Jets are 1-2, and their two losses were close. They won 23-10 at Tennessee in Week 1, lost 20-17 in overtime to Green Bay in Week 2 and fell 31-24 at Detroit in Week 3, a game in which Geno Smith completed 31 of 37 passes for 321 yards. Year two under head coach Aaron Glenn looks a lot more competitive than the 2025 season that preceded it.

Chicago's case

Ben Johnson's offense is the reason Chicago remains the favorite even without its starting quarterback. The Bears rank in the top ten in the league in both passing and rushing efficiency, measured by expected points added per play, a stat that credits each snap for how much it improves a team's scoring chances. The system is built on play action, heavy personnel and quick, defined reads, and it has shown it can keep a backup functional. Keenum ran it cleanly against Philadelphia, including a 41-yard play-action touchdown to Kalif Raymond.

The defense is the other half of the case. Chicago has been one of the league's better pass defenses by the same efficiency measure, and it has generated pressure with a four-man rush. That matters against a Jets offense that leans heavily on its passing game. Soldier Field and a full home crowd add the usual home edge.

We should be honest about one thing in that record, though. The 27-7 win over Philadelphia was helped a great deal by a plus-three turnover margin, while Chicago's per-play efficiency in that game was only modestly positive. We treat the final score as more lopsided than the football behind it.

New York's case

The Jets' best argument is their quarterback. Smith has been efficient all season, and the Jets rank around tenth in passing efficiency with pass protection that has held up in the middle of the league. Garrett Wilson is not on the injury report and remains the focal point. If Smith gets clean pockets, he can move the ball against anyone, as he showed at Detroit.

The defense has also improved. A unit that ranked near the bottom of the league in 2025 has climbed to roughly mid-pack, 11th in points allowed and 11th against the run. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick was a full practice participant and is expected back, which should help the back end.

The weaknesses are just as clear. The run game ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency, the pass rush ranks around 20th and the Jets have struggled to finish drives in tight spots, including a fourth-and-1 stop against Green Bay. Their losses have come when the front could not get home and the offense could not run when it needed to.

Injuries and lineup news

The headline is at quarterback. Caleb Williams has been officially ruled out with a hamstring injury. ESPN and NFL Network reported that Tyson Bagent is expected to start after taking most of the first-team work in practice, with Keenum as the backup. Ben Johnson declined to name a starter publicly, so the inactive list will be the final word. Bagent has four career starts, none since 2023, and he cleared the concussion protocol only this week.

Chicago's offensive line is also in flux. Left tackle Braxton Jones is on injured reserve, and the Bears are working with a new center after Drew Dalman's retirement. On defense, nickel cornerback Cam Lewis is listed as doubtful, and Kyler Gordon, Noah Sewell, Shemar Turner and Anthony Johnson Jr. are out.

The Jets are missing a lot of offensive skill. Running back Breece Hall, wide receiver Adonai Mitchell and tight end Mason Taylor are out, and tight end Kenyon Sadiq is questionable. Left guard Dylan Parham is out as well, with rookie Anez Cooper next in line. Weather should not be a major factor: the forecast at Soldier Field calls for temperatures around 60 degrees, light wind and only a small chance of rain.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation comes down to three things. First, the quarterback matchup now favors New York. Smith is the more accomplished and more reliable passer today, and he is facing a Chicago team starting a backup behind a rebuilt left side of the line. That is the biggest reason we expect a closer game than Chicago's overall team strength would suggest.

Second, Chicago still has the better roster and the better scheme, and the Jets are poorly built to exploit the Bears' main defensive weakness. Chicago has been soft against the run, but without Hall the Jets lack the back to punish that, and their ground game was already among the league's least efficient. That pushes New York toward a one-dimensional plan, throwing into the strength of Chicago's defense with a thin group of receivers and tight ends.

Third, the situation trims Chicago's edge slightly. The Bears played in prime time to close Week 3 and are on a short week with six days of rest, compared with seven for New York. Add in the turnover luck behind the Philadelphia result, and we think Chicago's overall rating overstates how big its edge is today. Netting it all out, we have Chicago winning by about 4 points. The market has Chicago favored by 3.5, close to our number, so there is no official play on this game.

The key risk

The biggest uncertainty is simply who plays quarterback for Chicago. Bagent is expected to start, but the Bears never confirmed it. If Keenum starts instead, our read stays with Chicago and moves about a point further in its favor, since Keenum has already run this offense successfully this season.

The second risk is Smith himself. He shredded Detroit on 31 of 37 passing, and a Chicago defense missing its nickel corner plus several other contributors could be vulnerable to the same kind of precise, quick game. If the Jets protect well and Smith stays on schedule, New York has a real path to an upset, especially against a Bears offense led by a quarterback who has not started a game since 2023.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 4 at 12:17 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

New York Jets

Adonai Mitchell, wide receiver, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 69 percent, 82 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jamaal Pritchett, who has seen little action.

Kingsley Enagbare, linebacker, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 66 percent, 68 percent, 58 percent. Next up on the depth chart: David Bailey, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Isaiah Williams, wide receiver, on the practice report (finger): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 60 percent, 82 percent, 89 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Sterling Shepard, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Breece Hall, running back, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 58 percent, 65 percent, 48 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Braelon Allen, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Dylan Parham, guard, out: a starter before this injury. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 58 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Anez Cooper, who has not played a snap this season.

Kiko Mauigoa, linebacker, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Next up on the depth chart: Trevin Wallace, who has seen little action.

Kenyon Sadiq, tight end, on the practice report (back): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 42 percent, 36 percent, 58 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Mason Taylor, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

David Onyemata, defensive tackle, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 70 percent, 22 percent, did not play.

Mason Taylor, tight end, out: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 66 percent, 46 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jeremy Ruckert, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Jeremy Ruckert, tight end, on the practice report (knee): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 43 percent, 34 percent, 42 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jelani Woods, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Nahshon Wright, Arian Smith.

Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams, quarterback, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 86 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Tyson Bagent, who has seen little action.

Cam Lewis, cornerback, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 96 percent, 79 percent, 76 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Malik Muhammad II, who has already been playing a starter's share.

D'Andre Swift, running back, on the practice report (knee): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 57 percent, 68 percent, 69 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kyle Monangai, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Braxton Jones, offensive tackle, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 75 percent, 74 percent, 46 percent.

James Lynch, defensive tackle, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 32 percent, 54 percent, 36 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Dayo Odeyingbo, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Anthony Johnson Jr., Ozzy Trapilo, Jamree Kromah, Jayden Loving, Kyler Gordon, Shemar Turner and others.

The verdict

We expect Chicago to win by about 4 points. The Bears' scheme, home field and a Jets offense missing Breece Hall and two pass catchers keep Chicago on the right side, while the drop from Williams to a backup quarterback keeps the margin modest. The market has Chicago favored by 3.5, close to our number, so there is no official play on this game.