Bones’ fight-card positions, prices, matchup notes, and complete graded record.
Bones covers UFC and regional MMA cards with fight-by-fight picks, market prices, written risk, and a permanently graded record. Every published result stays in the ledger, including losses. Browse the latest free prediction articles, verify every result in the public record, or read how the models and grading work.
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These are graded model outputs; historical replay and closing-price rows are not described as preposted wagers. Losing results are never removed. Bones has 1737 graded picks on the record.
Won. Mike Malott won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Buckley's documented knockout power, which often lands late (R3 finishes over Thompson, Covington and Arroyo), meets Malott's documented late fade. Malott visibly slowed in round 3 against Magny and was finished there, he has never fought past 15 minutes, and this is a 5-round fight against someone who has already gone 25 minutes with Usman.
Lost. Jasmine Jasudavicius won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jasudavicius uses her size to win the fence and clinch battle and runs the same 450s+ control grind she used against Maverick, Karine Silva and Fernandes. That would cancel out Blanchfield's grappling and take a 29-28 decision at home over 3 rounds, where Blanchfield's 5-round pace edge counts for less.
Won. Cristian Pérez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nelson's UFC-tested striking and KO power (6 KO wins, a KD over Frevola) beat up a hittable Pérez. Pérez was stopped by punches in R3 by Manoel Sousa even after building 466s of control, and Paxton landed 45 of 71 (63%) on him, so if Nelson gets through the early exchanges he can catch Pérez fading late.
Won. Marc-Andre Barriault won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Daukaus closes distance, gets to the front headlock or top control, and finishes Barriault the way Hernandez did (arm triangle after 525s of control). That is his signature D'Arce game landing on Barriault's repeated control-time losses.
Lost. Brendan Allen won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Allen wins the scrambles and takes Duncan's back over five rounds, and his rear naked choke finishes a fighter whose submission defence has never been tested on tape. Duncan concedes long control (500s to Rodrigues in a loss, plus 427s and 372s in his two latest wins), sits passively on his back, and has never fought past round three in the UFC, where the tape shows his output fading.
Lost. Jai Herbert won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Herbert has an 8" reach edge and documented KO power (Nallo R1 in 2026). He could land on Camilo's taped habit of backing straight to the fence under blitzes with his chin exposed on exits (Ramos tape). He could also catch Camilo's level changes with intercepting knees.
Won. Loopy Godínez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Godínez enters with a dip-and-overhand right and over-commits on level changes (tape: she gave her back to Penne off an entry). Souza's counter left hook and stepping overhand right have already produced UFC knockdowns (Jauregui, Carnelossi). One clean counter on an entry ends the fight or flips the round before the grind builds.
Lost. Andre Fili won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fili's standing counter-punching (10 KO wins, the Almeida R1 KO, the hook knockdown vs Delgado) lands on Kamaka's documented standing-chin flaw: he was punched out in R1 by Luke Riley in July 2026, and his tape shows a dropping lead hand and squared feet in pocket exchanges.
Won. Otari Tanzilovi won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wellmaker's documented counter right hand, which timed the entries for the Bramhald and Hughes knockouts, could land on Tanzilovi's documented habits: he shoots reactive doubles under incoming strikes with his head exposed, and he backs straight up with his chin raised under flurries.
Won. Julius Walker won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Walker's takedown and clinch entries feed Meerschaert's signature submission game. On tape, Walker let his head slip outside in the fence clinch and gave up a guillotine (Essley), and he conceded his back with hooks for long spells (Bartling). Meerschaert finishes exactly those positions with guillotines, rear-naked chokes and arm triangles.
Lost. Francisco Prado won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Prado gets top position or a front headlock in rounds 2 or 3. He has finished with RNC, guillotine, triangle and shoulder choke, plus GnP. Bonfim has a repeated pattern of breaking down once the fight hits that phase: RNC by Saint Denis, D'Arce by Sola off a stalled shot, and flattened and stopped by Padilla after a tired head-low shot. Opponents also logged 123 to 201s of control on him in four UFC fights.
Won. Niko Price won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Shahbazyan's guillotine/RNC submission game (11 submission wins) lands on Price's documented choke flaw: he lost by D'Arce to Luque, RNC to Jacobe Smith and RNC to Chiesa, and the tape shows him exposing his back and neck on get-ups and failing to clear a standing seatbelt.
Lost. Brendson Ribeiro won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ribeiro's documented standing knockout power (counter right, plus a 5" reach edge) lands while Franco enters with the upright head and straight-line retreat seen on tape. A secondary risk is a front-headlock guillotine (4 guillotine wins) on Franco's level change.
Lost. Allen Frye Jr. won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Frye's documented A-game, finishing hook flurries (6 of 6 KO/TKO) behind a steady 3-round clinch engine (475s control against Pat), lands on Harris's documented upright chin, low hands and late cardio decay in long clinches. Harris was visibly hurt by punches and knees against Cleveland and faded badly in Round 3 against Green.
Lost. Alice Pereira won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Zhelezniakova marches forward with a static head and accepts upper-body clinches without underhook prevention (Loiseau and Zutova tape), so Pereira's 3" reach edge, collar-tie plum knees, and intercepting knee (the Cowan KO) can land her documented standing knockout power on exactly that entry.
Lost. Preston LaGrange won.
Documented risk, written before the result: LaGrange's right hand, which dropped Minner and Bryant, lands on the Ariano who was dropped clean by Nazarnia's right hand and went to turtle after an exchange against Urholin, or LaGrange finds a neck in a scramble against a fighter with an amateur submission loss and visible round 1 and round 3 fatigue.
Lost. Salhahuddin Everett won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Everett's forward flurry and one-shot right hand land on Martin's documented habit of retreating straight back to the fence with his chin exposed (he took clean hooks from an opponent listed 0-3), or Martin goes to the mat (he fell off a high kick against Moore) and Everett takes the back or locks the triangle.
Lost. Roque Conceição won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Conceição's overhand right, his repeat taped weapon behind 8 KO/TKO wins, lands on the upright Chavez, who was hit clean by looping overhands in two taped bouts (Guado 07:01 and 07:13, Coquinche 09:23 and 15:58).
Won. Mateus Soares won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Miyaguchi is about five inches taller and can replay the Mackson Lee fight: catch Soares advancing with his head dipped using a straight right or intercepting knee, then finish with strikes or the front-headlock choke he hunted twice against Ishihara, the same choke family that tapped Soares.
Lost. Alivia Bierley won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bierley times one of Onley's many kicks with a counter or overhand right, a shot Onley is documented absorbing (looping overhand rights at FCC 39, right hands over the top at FCC 45), with Bierley's double-leg and amateur submission game against Onley's unsampled defensive grappling as the secondary route.
Won. Natalia Silva won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wang's accurate volume boxing, and especially her counter straight right over an advancing opponent, out-lands a feint-heavy, lower-volume Silva over five rounds. On tape Silva gets clipped when she lunges in or exits with her chin up (Namajunas 2:38 and 10:38, Grasso 6:14 and 10:02), and her rounds against Namajunas were close (29-28 x3).
Won. Payton Talbott won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Figueiredo uses an inside trip or a scramble to get on top, holds Talbott down and hunts the back or a choke, which is the documented path Barcelos took (8/15 TD, 583s ctrl, Talbott mounted and giving up his back on tape) and the control-plus-RNC game Figueiredo used on Garbrandt (223s ctrl).
Won. Esteban Ribovics won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Green's tape shows him timing reactive level-change takedowns under incoming strikes (3 of 3 against the taller Zellhuber). That lands on Ribovics' documented hole, because both of Gamrot's takedowns came off Ribovics overextending on a forward power punch, ending in the arm-triangle loss with 410s of control against him. Radzhabov had already beaten him on control (11/21 TD, 459s ctrl). Green finishes subs too (11 submission wins, a RNC of Stephens in 2026-05).
Lost. Roberto Soldić won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Soldić's documented A-game, the step-in straight left down the middle after a lead-hand touch, finds Williams's upright, centreline head. Up-the-middle strikes reached Williams repeatedly on the Pereira tape, and that left has stopped higher-level opposition (Khalidov, Materla, Du Plessis) before Williams's low-output counter style gets going.
Lost. Roman Kopylov won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kopylov's southpaw body and head kick game (three UFC kick stoppages) and his volume could land on Gautier's documented holes. Gautier let low kicks land unchecked and slowed visibly in R2 and R3 of his only pro loss (Williams, split decision). Pulyaev's southpaw volume also outlanded him, so a durable Kopylov could win the later rounds on output or catch a fading Gautier with a kick in R3.
Won. Imanol Rodriguez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Coria wins the way he has won both UFC fights. He chains takedowns, builds control time from top and along the fence, and grinds out three rounds in front of a home crowd with the US judging lean. Rodriguez has been taken down before (Trujillo double-leg) and lost the only three-round decision on his ledger (the Morales exhibition). Round 3, sustained bottom work and submission defence are all unsampled for him, and Borjas dropped him twice.
Won. Damian Pinas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pinas's clearest documented flaw is giving up takedowns along the fence after he commits to punches (twice against Gregory with about 1.5 minutes held in half guard, once against Almeida), and that lines up with Pulyaev's ground finishing record (3 ground-and-pound TKOs and 2 submissions) if Pulyaev can turn a Pinas entry into a fence takedown.
Won. Marcus McGhee won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Romero's submission finishing (two pro submission wins, including an RNC from a back take after a sprawl on a scramble against Lewis) lands on McGhee's only stoppage loss, a first-round RNC against Nascimento.
Won. Anthony Wint won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Armand's documented reaction to a blitz is to shell up and tie up on the fence within about 4 seconds. If he does that against Wint's linear, unset entry, he can grind the fence clinch, drag Wint down and finish with ground-and-pound or win a 3-round clinch decision. Wint's wrestling, bottom game and output past 40 seconds are unsampled, and his only full-distance pro fight was a split decision over a 1-1 opponent.
Lost. Johnny Walker won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Walker's documented standing knockout power (flying knees, elbows, spinning strikes, punches) catches Parkin early, because on tape Parkin keeps his head still on the centre line, takes looping punches around his guard, eats teeps and body kicks without checking them, and goes flat-footed with his hands down in R3.
Won. Jacobe Smith won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Smith's documented late-R1 fatigue (he absorbed clean shots while tired against Price), made worse by a 9-day camp, lets Whitehead survive the early storm and then land his counter uppercut-knee on a tired level change, or catch a guillotine or RNC in a scramble.
Won. Alexander Hernandez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dos Anjos's signature fence-clinch and takedown control grind (802s and 855s ctrl in his last decision wins, and a 2022 RNC after 396s of top control) lands on Hernandez's repeated loss to grappling-control opponents: Damon Jackson took 378s ctrl in a split decision, Rafa Garcia went 4/7 TD with 110s ctrl in a unanimous decision six months ago, and Moicano had 103s ctrl and then the RNC.
Lost. Ismail Naurdiev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Naurdiev wins by out-landing an upright Vettori on accuracy and power over three rounds, mixing in some top control. That is the profile Brunno Ferreira used to beat him 29-28 on all three cards in Dec 2025 (orthodox, 72", KO puncher), and Whittaker before him (orthodox, 73.5"). Naurdiev matches it: orthodox, 74" reach, KO-heavy, 50-61% accuracy in his UFC wins, 351s ctrl against Silva.
Lost. Eric Nolan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nolan's counter overhand right or left hook lands on McGee as he walks in with his head upright and his left hand dropping. That is the same standing-punch phase in which McGee has been knocked out in round 1 three times (Ponzinibbio 2016, Wells 2022, Brown 2023). The Brown tape shows him KO'd by a counter right exactly that way.
Lost. Raul Rosas Jr. won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rosas's sustained control grind (605s and 16 takedowns vs Font) builds up over five rounds against a 39-year-old. Barcelos has been controlled before (193s by Quiñonez, 85 to 97s by Simon, Henry and Talbott), his one submission loss was a rear-naked choke (2014), and 3 of Rosas's 6 submission wins are rear-naked chokes.
Won. Ailin Perez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dumont's size and Sanda/judo clinch game (she is 67" tall with a 67" reach against Perez's 65"/66") could turn the grappling around and produce her own documented control grind (604s vs de Randamie, 538s vs Chandler). That would hit Perez's documented habit of giving up top and back control to grapplers: the Egger RNC loss after 419s of Egger control, 311s conceded to Edwards, 249s to Pudilova, and Chiasson taking her back in R1. Perez's self-reported ankle stress fracture and knee cartilage damage ("not 100 percent") could blunt her wrestling.
Won. Luis Hernandez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dumas's documented standing KO power (4 KO/TKO wins, including a read-and-counter head kick on tape) and his 79" reach catch Hernandez as he walks in. Hernandez was staggered by a right hand and then dropped by a short counter left against Guillon 11 days ago, and a Games right hand disrupted his legs, so his entries are exposed to counters.
Lost. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Akylbek Uulu's documented chain-wrestling back take and RNC lands on Osmanli's documented hole. Osmanli's only pro loss is an RNC in R1, and Yunusov took him down and took his back early in R1 in November 2025.
Won. Tina Black won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Amaya's clinch or body-lock takedowns near the fence, followed by top ground-and-pound, land on Black's documented flaws. Black gets pinned on the fence (McCormack tape). She lost a wrestling-control decision to Rodriguez, who logged 258s of control on 3/13 takedowns. She faded and absorbed ground-and-pound from bottom late against McCormack, and this bout runs a fourth round. US judges also lean toward Amaya as the home fighter.
Lost. Brady Hiestand won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hiestand's documented A-game, a fence-and-top control grind like his 554s vs Garcia and 460s vs Turcios, backed by the American home-judging lean, beats a Nakamura who has been out 417 days with self-reported MCL and shoulder tendon tears; in his only loss, after an 11-month layoff, Gafurov neutralised his wrestling (0 of 1 takedowns, out-controlled 157s to 101s) and dropped him with an overhand right.
Lost. Rodolfo Vieira won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Vieira lands an early takedown and hunts an arm triangle from top position. This is his signature A-game, and it lands on Bryczek's documented bottom-game flaw. Rowston held him for 610s of control. Silva dragged him down and kept him on his back for the rest of the fight. The Tavares highlight shows a clean reactive double-leg followed by passive guard with no active escape. Bryczek also self-reports being drained by defending grappling against Rowston.
Lost. Christian Edwards won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Edwards could use his 6'5" length and fence-clinch control (262s against Bukauskas) to repeat what Stirling (233s of top control) and Crute (reversal to mount, 10-8 round) did to Bellato. From there he either lands top ground-and-pound on Bellato's chin-exposed guard, which has been dropped repeatedly, or banks a home-fighter 29-28 decision.
Won. Elves Brener won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Harrell's explosive level-change double-legs chain into chest-to-chest top pressure. That can replay Brener's Orolbai loss, where a wrestler outworked him with 5 of 17 takedowns and 432s of control. The risk grows if Brener is rusty after a 417-day layoff, and US judges lean toward the home fighter by 8.3 points if it goes to the cards.
Lost. Montel Jackson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jackson's southpaw straight-left counter could catch Simon on one of the naked, telegraphed level changes seen on the Song tape. Simon's punch durability has a repeated flaw: KO'd by Faber, dropped twice by Song's counter left hook, and dropped by Yañez in March 2026.
Lost. Alatengheili won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The documented flaw is Castaneda's chin in the pocket. He was knocked down by Marcos and by Gutierrez, KO'd by Santos, and his tape shows him eating straight counters with his chin exposed. Alatengheili's overhand right and counter hooks (the Croom KO, and staggering Rodrigues) could land there, and duck-under takedowns could steal the rounds in between.
Won. Yazmin Jauregui won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Demopoulos's submission game could catch Jauregui on the mat. Demopoulos has armbarred people off her back, including right after being knocked down by Gomez Juarez. Jauregui's one documented ground sequence was poor: after Souza dropped her, she gave up her back without framing or hand-fighting and was choked out. Add her ~2-year layoff after ACL surgery and a knockdown or scramble could hand Demopoulos the mat.
Lost. Joshua Van won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Van's body work and sustained boxing punish upright entries; his Taira win demonstrates effective late offense despite conceded control.
Won. Arman Tsarukyan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ruffy's signature pull-counter straight right (Llontop, Corneliu, Manoel, Fiziev) could meet Tsarukyan's straight-line entries and level-change setups. That flaw has been exploited before: the Belikh counter-right KO loss, the Ramazanov right hand that dropped him to a knee, the Silva left hook that disrupted him, and intercepting knees from Aubin-Mercier and Hooker. Ruffy's 75" reach against Tsarukyan's 72.5" widens the gap Tsarukyan must cross.
Lost. Patricio Pitbull won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Choi has a documented habit of retreating in straight lines with his head upright under combinations, and that is how Stephens and Jourdain knocked him out. Pitbull's signature counter right and lead hook are the tools that punish exactly that.
Lost. Sean Sharaf won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sharaf's documented round-1 overhand right or uppercut could land on Steveson while he closes distance or changes level. Steveson's extended standing defence and chin are unsampled, and in the Ellison edit his first fence double-leg was stopped, which forced him to exchange on the feet.
Lost. Alonzo Menifield won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Menifield's documented one-punch power lands on Baraniewski's documented defensive hole. Against Aslan, Baraniewski threw committed hooks on the center line, was touched down by a clean right hook and was hit cleanly again, all in the standing exchange. If it goes past round 1, Menifield's decision wins over Walker and Sy, plus the home-judging lean, meet Baraniewski's completely untested cardio in rounds 2 and 3.
Lost. Marlon Vera won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Vera's documented late kick and elbow finishing power lands on Jourdain's documented upright, linear exits under pressure, the same opening Jean Silva used for the uppercut KO. Choi also nearly finished Jourdain. Vera's dangerous guard (armbars and triangles) could also punish Jourdain's stalled shots, as happened in the Erosa D'Arce loss.
Won. Robelis Despaigne won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Despaigne tends to retreat in a straight line when rushed (Parisian tape), his chin is essentially untested, and he took an unchecked low kick against Dos Santos. That is the opening for Tuivasa's documented A-game: low kick into a forward hook or overhand rush, then collar-tie elbows or a counter hook after absorbing a shot, as in the Lewis, Hardy and Sakai finishes.
Lost. Michael Aswell won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Aswell's forward pressure and left hook could land on Yoo's documented habit of backing straight up with his hands low. That is exactly how Daniel Santos, a pressuring orthodox striker, knocked Yoo out in round 2 of his only loss.
Won. Ryan Gandra won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Diaz's standing KO power, using the long jab and straight right from his 4.5-inch reach edge, lands on the hole shown in Gandra's only loss: upright head, straight-line retreat to the fence, caught between his own kick and power punch.
Won. Edmen Shahbazyan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ferreira's explosive burst power (or a judo entry into top position) lands on Shahbazyan's documented upright, center-line head and straight-line retreat under clean punching (Dobson buckled him, Allen's rights landed clean) and produces the knockout or ground-strike TKO that already ended Shahbazyan three times.
Won. Casey O'Neill won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Moura's signature smother (heavy clinch and top control, then the back and the rear-naked choke) reaches the mat and exploits O'Neill's documented loss of position on the ground, as in the da Silva armbar. Moura's control piles up time even when her takedowns fail, which could win her the rounds.
Won. Joanderson Brito won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Brito's style has a hole against rangy, stance-switching strikers. Algeo (73" reach, switch stance) and Gomis (73" reach, southpaw) both beat him by decision; Gomis stuffed his takedowns (0/3 needed on defence) and landed 43 strikes to Brito's 29. Chikadze (74" reach, switches stance, has intercepting knees against forward entries on the Rivera tape) could stop Brito's straight-line entries the same way, or knock him out with a kick.
Lost. Mayton Perea won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Perea's right hand lands during Hunt's entry — Hunt's tape shows him absorbing punches at range with upright posture (Beard 18:00-18:28) and becoming "more hesitant amid counter exchanges" (Smyth 09:30-10:05), and Perea's second-sharpest pairing is his three rear-naked-choke wins and back-take (Pinargote 24:35-25:01) against Hunt's one documented career loss, an amateur submission from bottom (Fleck, R3, 2020).
Lost. Igor Cavalcanti won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cavalcanti lands the early right hand or high kick from a 7.5-inch reach edge and finishes in round one — his documented A-game (10 KO wins, all wins R1) onto Ravello's documented flaw (TKO'd by Morales 2019 and by Martins' head kick plus punches in R2, 2025-10-30, with Ravello logged advancing head-on and eating straight punches vs Santana, Centeno and Romero).
Won. Akbar Abdullaev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Santos lands the documented right-hand counter on Abdullaev's forward entry and stops him standing — the same phase in which Abdullaev has been struck in the pocket (Simonov 03:00-03:03, Treskin 04:00-04:01) and briefly put to the canvas (Zholdoshbekov 02:31-02:36).
Won. Luis Hernandez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Guillon lands his UNCONDITIONAL standing power first — the Gutu head-kick/straight-punch sequence over a six-inch height and likely reach gap — and Hernandez's tape already shows him **upright and available to right-hand contact** (Games 07:08–07:18, legs disrupted at 06:26).
Won. Tyshawn Williams won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Monteiro catches a submission on one of Williams' forward level-change entries — Monteiro's documented A-game is 6+ submissions including a guard armlock finish from bottom, and Williams' deep submission defense and bottom recovery are explicitly unsampled across all accepted footage.
Won. Jean Silva won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Delgado's documented ko/tko striking (6 stoppages, knee finishes over Amil and Juarez) lands in the same standing phase in which Lopes stopped Silva by punches, with a 4-inch reach edge and a volume pace that can bank rounds if the knockout never comes.
Won. Brandon Moreno won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Moreno concedes the back in a scramble — the exact position Pantoja held for 506s of control and Taira converted into the R2 stoppage — and Morales, who finished Schnell in 2:54 and Idiris in R2, closes an RNC or catches a guillotine on a Moreno level-change.
Won. Tommy McMillen won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rahiki lands his documented counter KO — the exact left-hook-and-finish that ended Schmid — in one of McMillen's forward entries, the phase where his own tape shows clean returns reaching him (Zecchini 01:59–02:03, 02:35–02:38) and a visible knockdown against Montes.
Lost. Alexa Grasso won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Grasso lands the same counter left that ended Barber inside Fiorot's forward volume, against a fighter already documented as droppable by a counter hook while pressing forward.
Lost. Curtis Blaydes won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Blaydes wins the clinch, racks up fence and top control the way he did for 321s on Kuniev and 301s-style minutes, and takes a home-crowd decision or an elbow/hammerfist stoppage on the same mechanism de Lima used to out-grind Cortes Acosta in 2023.
Won. David Martinez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ige lands the compact counter/overhand right that starched Tucker, Fili and Jackson, and Martinez's Osuna tape documents he can be dropped and hurt (knockdown plus back-control adversity in R3 before recovering).
Lost. Tim Elliott won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Elliott lands the shots and holds top position for three rounds, reproducing the Carpenter (269s ctrl), Taira (593s ctrl) and Van (266s ctrl) template that accounts for Cháirez's three decision losses, with the +8.3pt home-judging lean in Glendale finishing the job.
Won. Ignacio Bahamondes won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Salikhov's signature counter right hand or spinning/wheel kick lands clean while Bahamondes pressures forward — the same entry-punished mechanism visible in his Leal, Taleb and Song finishes — and one shot ends it regardless of the volume ledger.
Won. Yousri Belgaroui won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Santos out-works him in a fence-and-clinch volume grind to a three-round decision — the same 3-round decision loss Tulio hung on Belgaroui with 378s of control from a similar-height orthodox body — and Belgaroui's two prior stoppages of wrestlers came only after conceding early rounds, so a Santos who avoids the R3 collapse takes the cards.
Won. Tommy Gantt won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Klose's UNCONDITIONAL pressure-boxing grind — 10 decision wins, 61-70 landed per fight, plus 6 ko/tko and 2 KDs vs Jenkins — meets a 33-year-old whose professional ledger contains no sample of absorbing UFC-level striking or of fighting deep into a third round against a durable opponent, and Klose out-points or catches him.
Won. Rongzhu won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Garcia's documented A-game (8 submission wins, RNC from back control vs Ronson at 277s ctrl) landing on Rongzhu's documented submission-loss column — three regional R1 chokes and, at UFC level, the Bahamondes R3 guillotine off a reactive shot.
Won. Sean King won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rosas lands the grappling entry and finds the choke King's own tape documents him conceding — Ivy held prolonged bottom control with back exposure and neck-control hand-fighting from 03:48 to 08:05, and Hightower had King on bottom for a stretch, exactly the position Rosas's armbar/triangle/arm-triangle record attacks.
Won. Regina Tarin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Aldrich out-lands and out-controls a young, UFC-inexperienced opponent for 15 minutes exactly as she did to Lee, De La Rosa, Robertson and Horth, and banks the home decision in Glendale.
Lost. Quentin Pasley won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pasley's documented A-game is exactly a long-range right high kick and a flying knee at the opening bell, and Berisha's own film shows him standing tall and upright in orthodox at range in every accepted clip, so one clean kick or knee ends this before any grappling phase exists.
Lost. Isaac Moreno won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Moreno's UNCONDITIONAL standing knockout catches Junior early — Junior fights behind a high guard at close range and has conceded clean exchanges (Ribeiro, Spadaccini), and Moreno's lead-right counter hook has produced first-round stoppages.
Won. Martin Kozák won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Echols lands his documented early counter right — the Downey KO mechanism — or hits a first-round submission entry on Kozák, whose only tested adversity is cage pressure he absorbed without being hurt.
Won. Apollo Gomes won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kwon's UNCONDITIONAL straight-right/body-hook power — the same mechanism that dropped Kelly, Sunoto, Belingon and Belakh — lands during Gomes's level-change entry or an open-space exchange and ends it before any grappling phase is won.
Won. Christian Natividad won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Loud's UNCONDITIONAL standing power lands first — he has 4 ko/tko wins including a short right counter that dropped an advancing Urbina, and Natividad is documented on tape being dropped by punches in an open exchange (Jackson 18:45-19:19).
Won. Salahdine Parnasse won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hooker’s documented standing knockout weapons, especially intercepting knees and hooks, punish Parnasse’s repeatedly observed low ducking and exposed head position, the latter implicated in his Torres stoppage.
Won. Axel Sola won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ziam’s accurate jab, straight punches and clinch-exit strikes exploit Sola’s documented high chin and linear retreat, accumulating the cleaner damage while Sola pursues contact.
Lost. Michael Page won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Page keeps exchanges at his preferred distance and wins two rounds through cleaner striking, extending his documented decision-winning A-game before Ruziboev can establish productive grappling.
Lost. Daniil Donchenko won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Donchenko’s sustained standing pressure, body attacks and accurate combinations exploit Soriano’s straight-line retreats and stationary defence, reproducing the accumulation of damage that undermined him against Kopylov.
Lost. Kurtis Campbell won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Campbell times Peek’s looping entries into takedowns and back attacks, reproducing his documented top-position offense against a fighter whose UFC opponents accumulated 329, 341 and 496 seconds of control.
Lost. Losene Keita won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Keita punishes Naimov’s documented flat-footed clinch exits with his signature explosive punches, turning the transitions required by Naimov’s control game into damaging exchanges.
Won. Felipe Lima won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Charrière exploits Lima’s documented fence passivity with sustained clinch pressure and damaging knees, supported by Charrière’s 204s and 222s UFC control performances and Lima conceding 289s control against Talbott.
Won. Mario Pinto won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Spann uses Pinto’s repeated early fence concessions and documented back exposure during get-ups to secure a submission, matching his submission-heavy A-game to a real positional opening.
Lost. Modestas Bukauskas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bukauskas lands damaging standing combinations or clinch knees when Sy retreats under pressure, exploiting the cage retreat shown against Cutelaba and clean-right-hand defensive openings documented against Skvor.
Won. Pavel Andrusca won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wood punishes Andrusca’s documented overextended, chin-exposed entries with his jab and combination striking, using his 2.5-inch reach advantage and demonstrated output to accumulate winning rounds.
Won. Fabia Sintes won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Aljarouj catches Sintes leaning straight back or overextending on entry with the same standing right-hand power demonstrated against Nobre, exploiting Sintes’s repeated counter-right exposure and documented rocking against Santos.
Lost. Nora Cornolle won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cornolle turns a clinch transition into a submission opportunity, pairing her two professional submission wins, including Cowan in the UFC, with Syguła’s documented ground-submission vulnerability against Sobek, although the different finishing positions limit the match.
Lost. Matthieu Letho Duclos won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Duclos pressures Dias backward behind his right hand, establishes sustained fence and top control, and exploits the difficulty escaping and deterioration under pressure documented against Cado to take rounds.
Lost. Delphine Benouaich won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Benouaich’s committed right-hand pressure catches Montenegro entering upright on the centreline, exploiting the standing vulnerability exposed by Luna’s knockout and still visible in later professional footage, although Benouaich’s own KO/TKO delivery phases are unverified.
Lost. Adam Darby won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rivera's documented A-game includes clinch offence, cage takedown entries, and scrambles, and Darby's standing guillotine and ninja choke, built off exactly those entries, land on a fighter whose every career stoppage loss (three RNCs and a McDowell guillotine in a title fight) came by choke.
Lost. Modestino Rodrigues won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rodrigues, a tall orthodox 77-inch right-hand knockout artist, lands the clean right early, and Holmes repeats the Rowston pattern exactly (dropped by one orthodox right hand from a long opponent, backs straight into the fence, no recovery, finished by follow-up strikes on the ground inside round one).
Won. Silvestre Sanchez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McCracken's documented fence clinch and body-lock takedown into back control (three RNC wins, the Bellator round-one back-take) lands on Sanchez's documented cage-control vulnerability from the Roberts loss, either finishing him in round one or banking the early rounds before Sanchez's third-round window opens.
Lost. Gabriel Lorenço won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lorenço's documented low-kick-into-overhand-right knockout power landing on Cleveland's tape-visible habit of eating leg kicks unchecked while hand-measuring and retreating in straight lines with hands low, the same porous shell that got him rocked by Harris before the submission finish.
Lost. Adam Livingston won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Livingston's documented unconditional KO path (5 KO/TKO wins, 86% finish rate, kicks and long combinations from a length edge) lands on Smith's tape-documented leg-kick defence hole and his unsampled response to sustained orthodox pressure, with Smith reactive rather than offensive when pinned to the cage.
Won. Gregory Rodrigues won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hernandez’s unconditional pressure-and-control attrition reaches Rodrigues’ documented late-discipline failure against Cannonier, when Rodrigues was broken and stopped in round four after succeeding early.
Won. Vitor Petrino won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Spivac wins an early takedown and converts his signature top pressure into cumulative ground damage or a submission before Petrino’s striking can take over.
Won. Reinier de Ridder won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dolidze catches a grappling entry with his documented punch-or-knee knockout power. The verified Whittaker fight showed this entry risk when de Ridder was knocked down, and de Ridder has three recorded KO/TKO losses.
Won. MarQuel Mederos won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jones turns forward pressure into clinch work, repeat mat returns, and extended top control. Mederos conceded 454 seconds of control to Hubbard and 279 to Choinski, so Jones can bank rounds if Mederos cannot consistently separate or escape.
Won. Carli Judice won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chaves lands repeated takedowns and converts her documented 269-second control game into the same control-weighted decision dynamic that cost Judice the split decision against Fernandes.
Won. Anthony Wint won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chatman’s 35-pound size advantage and patient overhand-right, left-hook, and low-kick counters could disrupt Wint’s entries, while Wint’s closest fight showed that a substantially larger heavyweight could resist his sustained clinch control.
Lost. Jamall Emmers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Emmers converts his recent wrestling into a submission opportunity against Douglas, who has documented first-round guillotine and triangle losses.
Lost. Shamil Gaziev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gaziev’s documented nine-KO pressure-punching A-game lands on Nzechukwu’s documented standing defensive flaw, exposed by the Jung elbow stoppage and Jacoby counter-punch knockout.
Won. Chris Padilla won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Haqparast’s documented southpaw volume and 10-KO standing attack attrition-stops Padilla, whose 2016 standing TKO loss followed a southpaw’s sustained body, clinch, and straight-punch offense.
Won. Marcio Barbosa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kuse has never been stopped in 12 professional bouts and has substantially more three-round experience. If he survives Barbosa's opening surge, both verified Barbosa losses occurred by second-round strikes, leaving Kuse a live attritional and counter-striking path.
Won. Stan Dorsainvil won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Young denies the grappling entries and uses his unconditional standing output—recently 112 and 122 significant strikes—to bank rounds against a short-notice UFC newcomer, with the home-judging context strengthening that decision path.
Lost. Jackson McVey won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McVey's standing and clinch offense can punish Schultz's recent failed entries, and Schultz was stopped by standing punches after his entries became slower and more exposed.
Won. Shanelle Dyer won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Reed uses her documented high-output decision game—117 significant strikes against Penne—to bank rounds with home-field judging if Dyer again loses range discipline and spends too long in extended exchanges.
Won. Kaik Brito won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fazil chains a takedown or clinch entry into top control and a choke — his live A-game (D'Arce R2 over a 6-1 opponent, May 2026) landing on Brito's documented grappling hole, the majority-decision loss to Oban Elliott where Brito was controlled 265s to 61s and landed 0 takedowns of his own.
Lost. Trent Miller won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Miller's unconditional early KO power — 5 first-round ko/tko wins — lands first on a Rodrigues who has fought only 3 times in 3 years and is making his Vegas/DWCS debut, and Rodrigues gets stopped before his reach edge accumulates.
Lost. Cristian Pérez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pérez uses his 3-inch reach edge to enter on the legs and repeat the 466s-of-control performance, out-positioning Paxton across three rounds the way the 72" orthodox Jacobi Jones out-pointed him in 2021, or catching a submission from top position.
Lost. Alik Lorenz won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lorenz's documented A-game — R1 ko/tko, six times on the record — lands on the same punch-KO vulnerability Iwo Baraniewski exposed in Aly in 20 seconds, in the identical standing phase.
Won. Roman Puga won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Trembley's documented submission A-game — 5 subs in 7, including a first-round guillotine on the best opponent either man has faced — off a wrestling entry Puga has never been shown defending, choking him out inside two rounds.
Won. Islam Makhachev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Garry lands his documented standing KO offense on Makhachev’s documented vulnerability to a standing punch knockout before the control game takes hold.
Won. Mackenzie Dern won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Robertson wins a control-heavy decision by reproducing her recent 557–754-second smothering performances while denying Dern the submission.
Lost. Jalin Turner won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Turner uses his 77-inch reach and documented standing KO power to catch the much shorter Fernandes, although Fernandes has no documented professional knockout loss establishing that durability flaw.
Lost. Dustin Stoltzfus won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stoltzfus’s recent demonstrated punch power lands on Abdul-Malik’s documented standing knockout flaw, as shown by Stoltzfus’s first-round KO of Marc-Andre Barriault and Abdul-Malik’s third-round knee stoppage against Belgaroui.
Won. Esteban Ribovics won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Barboza’s documented standing knockout A-game could exploit Ribovics’ willingness to sustain prolonged, high-volume exchanges, although Ribovics has no documented professional knockout loss.
Lost. Chidi Njokuani won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Njokuani lands his documented standing knockout offense before Álvarez can win the grappling entry, with Álvarez’s early-career KO loss providing only phase-unknown supporting evidence.
Lost. Charles Johnson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Johnson’s documented high-output striking and eight-decision A-game could exploit Chapolin over three rounds if Chapolin cannot create an early finish or sustained control.
Won. Donte Johnson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McConico’s documented standing KO power lands on Johnson’s documented amateur vulnerability to a standing head-kick knockout.
Lost. Tresean Gore won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gore lands his documented takedown-to-guillotine A-game on Luque’s documented submission vulnerability, most recently exposed by Holland in 2025.
Won. Lucas Fernando won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tobias lands a takedown or wins a scramble and converts his six-submission A-game before Fernando’s standing power takes over.
Won. Neil Magny won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Brahimaj’s submission A-game lands directly on Magny’s repeatedly documented submission weakness, most recently exposed by Amosov’s first-round anaconda choke.
Lost. Jeremiah Wells won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wells uses his documented control grind—672 seconds against Semelsberger and 365 against Gorimbo—to neutralize Orolbai and benefit from the measurable home-judging lean.
Won. Anthony Wint won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Adams' signature R1 ko/tko — 5 of his 6 wins, all first round, behind a 74" reach — lands first on a heavyweight whose durability has no documented evidence either way.
Won. Abe Alsaghir won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Escarrega's signature R1 knockout — 5 of his 7 ko/tko wins came in the first round — lands on a chin that has literally never been tested, behind a 4-inch height advantage.
Won. Bilal Hasan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Saikia's plurality path — submission (5 of 9 wins: guillotine, two triangles, RNC), i.e. catching Hasan on a scramble, an over-committed entry, or off a shot — landing on a Hasan grappling/defensive-grappling record that the dossier does not document in either direction.
Won. Tom Pagliarulo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mulumba drags it to the mat and lands his signature rear-naked-choke/submission finish, hitting Pagliarulo's documented submission loss (armbar R3 vs Murad).
Lost. Joe Kropschot won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kropschot's rear-naked choke — 6 submission wins, three straight RNCs, current LFA champion out of a jiu-jitsu room — catches Kunneman in a scramble past the first round, where Kunneman has essentially no recorded mileage.
Won. Quillan Salkilld won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gamrot’s six-win submission game reaches top position and reproduces the rear-naked-choke vulnerability documented in Salkilld’s lone loss.
Lost. Diego Ferreira won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ferreira’s documented standing KO power lands on Quarantillo’s repeated knockout vulnerability, including his recent punch stoppage against Cub Swanson.
Won. Yadier del Valle won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Elkins uses his documented takedown-backed decision grind, durability, and home-field judging context to deny del Valle’s submissions and bank rounds.
Won. Alexia Thainara won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lemos can exploit Thainara’s documented submission vulnerability—her only loss was a third-round guillotine—with one of her own three submission wins.
Won. Ty Miller won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Goff’s unconditional standing knockout power—7 KO/TKOs in 9 wins—lands before Miller can establish his longer-range striking game, although Miller’s shallow dossier contains no documented matching durability flaw.
Won. Steven Asplund won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pat uses his 81-inch reach and documented KO/TKO A-game to land first in a heavyweight striking exchange, although Asplund has no documented professional KO/TKO loss.
Won. Diyar Nurgozhay won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lopes’s five-win submission A-game reaches Nurgozhay’s documented flaw of consecutive submission losses.
Won. José Montanha won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sutherland keeps the fight standing and lands his documented knockout A-game before Montanha can win the grappling phase.
Won. Manoel Sousa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Miranda uses his four-inch reach advantage, southpaw geometry, and proven decision endurance to outpoint Sousa, whose only documented loss was a decision.
Lost. Miles Johns won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Johns turns the bout into his signature decision grind, using his substantially deeper record of sustained three-round success to outpoint Vazquez.
Won. Juliana Miller won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oliveira’s six-win KO/TKO A-game lands on Miller’s documented 2023 first-round loss by punches.
Won. Carol Foro won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Canuto secures the grappling phase and converts her documented submission A-game against Foro, whose dossier contains no demonstrated answer to a submission specialist.
Won. Bryan Battle won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rosta’s documented decision grind lands on Battle’s demonstrated vulnerability to an orthodox, similarly built opponent capable of winning every round, as Fakhretdinov did.
Lost. Simeon Powell won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Powell’s live knockout A-game lands on Yagshimuradov’s documented KO/TKO vulnerability, previously exploited by Mikhail Ragozin and Corey Anderson.
Lost. Aaron Jeffery won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jeffery’s documented standing power lands before Silveira can establish his conditional grappling path.
Wellmaker's last two losses both came against takedown artists, and Tanzilovi is built from exactly that blueprint.
Every Shahbazyan loss comes in the first round against pressure, and Price still owns that script.
A reach and volume edge usually wins this kind of fight, but the model reads Kareckaite's history of giving up long stretches of control as the louder signal.
Souza's counters have put bigger names on the floor, but her losses all trace back to one gap that Godinez lives in.
Herbert brings reach and one-punch power, but his losses share one fence pattern and Camilo has the exact tools that beat it.
A late weight miss and a short turnaround cloud the pick, but Prado's limited striking still can't get him where he needs to go.
Walker's size and wrestling look like the safe path, but his clinch habits feed the exact submissions that have finished Meerschaert's night before.
Pereira has the reach and the knee to end this standing, but her only path to that shot runs through a wrestling game she has never shown.
