Bones’ fight-card positions, prices, matchup notes, and complete graded record.
Bones covers UFC and regional MMA cards with fight-by-fight picks, market prices, written risk, and a permanently graded record. Every published result stays in the ledger, including losses. Browse the latest free prediction articles, verify every result in the public record, or read how the models and grading work.
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These are graded model outputs; historical replay/simulation rows are not described as preposted wagers. Losing results are never removed. Bones has 1656 graded picks on the record.
Won. Salahdine Parnasse won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hooker’s documented standing knockout weapons, especially intercepting knees and hooks, punish Parnasse’s repeatedly observed low ducking and exposed head position, the latter implicated in his Torres stoppage.
Won. Axel Sola won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ziam’s accurate jab, straight punches and clinch-exit strikes exploit Sola’s documented high chin and linear retreat, accumulating the cleaner damage while Sola pursues contact.
Lost. Michael Page won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Page keeps exchanges at his preferred distance and wins two rounds through cleaner striking, extending his documented decision-winning A-game before Ruziboev can establish productive grappling.
Lost. Daniil Donchenko won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Donchenko’s sustained standing pressure, body attacks and accurate combinations exploit Soriano’s straight-line retreats and stationary defence, reproducing the accumulation of damage that undermined him against Kopylov.
Lost. Kurtis Campbell won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Campbell times Peek’s looping entries into takedowns and back attacks, reproducing his documented top-position offense against a fighter whose UFC opponents accumulated 329, 341 and 496 seconds of control.
Lost. Losene Keita won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Keita punishes Naimov’s documented flat-footed clinch exits with his signature explosive punches, turning the transitions required by Naimov’s control game into damaging exchanges.
Won. Felipe Lima won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Charrière exploits Lima’s documented fence passivity with sustained clinch pressure and damaging knees, supported by Charrière’s 204s and 222s UFC control performances and Lima conceding 289s control against Talbott.
Won. Mario Pinto won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Spann uses Pinto’s repeated early fence concessions and documented back exposure during get-ups to secure a submission, matching his submission-heavy A-game to a real positional opening.
Lost. Modestas Bukauskas won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bukauskas lands damaging standing combinations or clinch knees when Sy retreats under pressure, exploiting the cage retreat shown against Cutelaba and clean-right-hand defensive openings documented against Skvor.
Won. Pavel Andrusca won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wood punishes Andrusca’s documented overextended, chin-exposed entries with his jab and combination striking, using his 2.5-inch reach advantage and demonstrated output to accumulate winning rounds.
Won. Fabia Sintes won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Aljarouj catches Sintes leaning straight back or overextending on entry with the same standing right-hand power demonstrated against Nobre, exploiting Sintes’s repeated counter-right exposure and documented rocking against Santos.
Lost. Nora Cornolle won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cornolle turns a clinch transition into a submission opportunity, pairing her two professional submission wins, including Cowan in the UFC, with Syguła’s documented ground-submission vulnerability against Sobek, although the different finishing positions limit the match.
Lost. Matthieu Letho Duclos won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Duclos pressures Dias backward behind his right hand, establishes sustained fence and top control, and exploits the difficulty escaping and deterioration under pressure documented against Cado to take rounds.
Lost. Delphine Benouaich won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Benouaich’s committed right-hand pressure catches Montenegro entering upright on the centreline, exploiting the standing vulnerability exposed by Luna’s knockout and still visible in later professional footage, although Benouaich’s own KO/TKO delivery phases are unverified.
Lost. Adam Darby won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rivera's documented A-game includes clinch offence, cage takedown entries, and scrambles, and Darby's standing guillotine and ninja choke, built off exactly those entries, land on a fighter whose every career stoppage loss (three RNCs and a McDowell guillotine in a title fight) came by choke.
Lost. Modestino Rodrigues won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rodrigues, a tall orthodox 77-inch right-hand knockout artist, lands the clean right early, and Holmes repeats the Rowston pattern exactly (dropped by one orthodox right hand from a long opponent, backs straight into the fence, no recovery, finished by follow-up strikes on the ground inside round one).
Won. Silvestre Sanchez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McCracken's documented fence clinch and body-lock takedown into back control (three RNC wins, the Bellator round-one back-take) lands on Sanchez's documented cage-control vulnerability from the Roberts loss, either finishing him in round one or banking the early rounds before Sanchez's third-round window opens.
Lost. Gabriel Lorenço won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lorenço's documented low-kick-into-overhand-right knockout power landing on Cleveland's tape-visible habit of eating leg kicks unchecked while hand-measuring and retreating in straight lines with hands low, the same porous shell that got him rocked by Harris before the submission finish.
Lost. Adam Livingston won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Livingston's documented unconditional KO path (5 KO/TKO wins, 86% finish rate, kicks and long combinations from a length edge) lands on Smith's tape-documented leg-kick defence hole and his unsampled response to sustained orthodox pressure, with Smith reactive rather than offensive when pinned to the cage.
Won. Gregory Rodrigues won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hernandez’s unconditional pressure-and-control attrition reaches Rodrigues’ documented late-discipline failure against Cannonier, when Rodrigues was broken and stopped in round four after succeeding early.
Won. Vitor Petrino won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Spivac wins an early takedown and converts his signature top pressure into cumulative ground damage or a submission before Petrino’s striking can take over.
Won. Reinier de Ridder won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dolidze catches a grappling entry with his documented punch-or-knee knockout power. The verified Whittaker fight showed this entry risk when de Ridder was knocked down, and de Ridder has three recorded KO/TKO losses.
Won. MarQuel Mederos won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jones turns forward pressure into clinch work, repeat mat returns, and extended top control. Mederos conceded 454 seconds of control to Hubbard and 279 to Choinski, so Jones can bank rounds if Mederos cannot consistently separate or escape.
Won. Carli Judice won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chaves lands repeated takedowns and converts her documented 269-second control game into the same control-weighted decision dynamic that cost Judice the split decision against Fernandes.
Won. Anthony Wint won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Chatman’s 35-pound size advantage and patient overhand-right, left-hook, and low-kick counters could disrupt Wint’s entries, while Wint’s closest fight showed that a substantially larger heavyweight could resist his sustained clinch control.
Lost. Jamall Emmers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Emmers converts his recent wrestling into a submission opportunity against Douglas, who has documented first-round guillotine and triangle losses.
Lost. Shamil Gaziev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gaziev’s documented nine-KO pressure-punching A-game lands on Nzechukwu’s documented standing defensive flaw, exposed by the Jung elbow stoppage and Jacoby counter-punch knockout.
Won. Chris Padilla won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Haqparast’s documented southpaw volume and 10-KO standing attack attrition-stops Padilla, whose 2016 standing TKO loss followed a southpaw’s sustained body, clinch, and straight-punch offense.
Won. Marcio Barbosa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kuse has never been stopped in 12 professional bouts and has substantially more three-round experience. If he survives Barbosa's opening surge, both verified Barbosa losses occurred by second-round strikes, leaving Kuse a live attritional and counter-striking path.
Won. Stan Dorsainvil won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Young denies the grappling entries and uses his unconditional standing output—recently 112 and 122 significant strikes—to bank rounds against a short-notice UFC newcomer, with the home-judging context strengthening that decision path.
Lost. Jackson McVey won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McVey's standing and clinch offense can punish Schultz's recent failed entries, and Schultz was stopped by standing punches after his entries became slower and more exposed.
Won. Shanelle Dyer won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Reed uses her documented high-output decision game—117 significant strikes against Penne—to bank rounds with home-field judging if Dyer again loses range discipline and spends too long in extended exchanges.
Won. Kaik Brito won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fazil chains a takedown or clinch entry into top control and a choke — his live A-game (D'Arce R2 over a 6-1 opponent, May 2026) landing on Brito's documented grappling hole, the majority-decision loss to Oban Elliott where Brito was controlled 265s to 61s and landed 0 takedowns of his own.
Lost. Trent Miller won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Miller's unconditional early KO power — 5 first-round ko/tko wins — lands first on a Rodrigues who has fought only 3 times in 3 years and is making his Vegas/DWCS debut, and Rodrigues gets stopped before his reach edge accumulates.
Lost. Cristian Pérez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pérez uses his 3-inch reach edge to enter on the legs and repeat the 466s-of-control performance, out-positioning Paxton across three rounds the way the 72" orthodox Jacobi Jones out-pointed him in 2021, or catching a submission from top position.
Lost. Alik Lorenz won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lorenz's documented A-game — R1 ko/tko, six times on the record — lands on the same punch-KO vulnerability Iwo Baraniewski exposed in Aly in 20 seconds, in the identical standing phase.
Won. Roman Puga won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Trembley's documented submission A-game — 5 subs in 7, including a first-round guillotine on the best opponent either man has faced — off a wrestling entry Puga has never been shown defending, choking him out inside two rounds.
Won. Islam Makhachev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Garry lands his documented standing KO offense on Makhachev’s documented vulnerability to a standing punch knockout before the control game takes hold.
Won. Mackenzie Dern won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Robertson wins a control-heavy decision by reproducing her recent 557–754-second smothering performances while denying Dern the submission.
Lost. Jalin Turner won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Turner uses his 77-inch reach and documented standing KO power to catch the much shorter Fernandes, although Fernandes has no documented professional knockout loss establishing that durability flaw.
Lost. Dustin Stoltzfus won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Stoltzfus’s recent demonstrated punch power lands on Abdul-Malik’s documented standing knockout flaw, as shown by Stoltzfus’s first-round KO of Marc-Andre Barriault and Abdul-Malik’s third-round knee stoppage against Belgaroui.
Won. Esteban Ribovics won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Barboza’s documented standing knockout A-game could exploit Ribovics’ willingness to sustain prolonged, high-volume exchanges, although Ribovics has no documented professional knockout loss.
Lost. Chidi Njokuani won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Njokuani lands his documented standing knockout offense before Álvarez can win the grappling entry, with Álvarez’s early-career KO loss providing only phase-unknown supporting evidence.
Lost. Charles Johnson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Johnson’s documented high-output striking and eight-decision A-game could exploit Chapolin over three rounds if Chapolin cannot create an early finish or sustained control.
Won. Donte Johnson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: McConico’s documented standing KO power lands on Johnson’s documented amateur vulnerability to a standing head-kick knockout.
Lost. Tresean Gore won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gore lands his documented takedown-to-guillotine A-game on Luque’s documented submission vulnerability, most recently exposed by Holland in 2025.
Won. Lucas Fernando won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tobias lands a takedown or wins a scramble and converts his six-submission A-game before Fernando’s standing power takes over.
Won. Neil Magny won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Brahimaj’s submission A-game lands directly on Magny’s repeatedly documented submission weakness, most recently exposed by Amosov’s first-round anaconda choke.
Lost. Jeremiah Wells won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wells uses his documented control grind—672 seconds against Semelsberger and 365 against Gorimbo—to neutralize Orolbai and benefit from the measurable home-judging lean.
Won. Anthony Wint won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Adams' signature R1 ko/tko — 5 of his 6 wins, all first round, behind a 74" reach — lands first on a heavyweight whose durability has no documented evidence either way.
Won. Abe Alsaghir won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Escarrega's signature R1 knockout — 5 of his 7 ko/tko wins came in the first round — lands on a chin that has literally never been tested, behind a 4-inch height advantage.
Won. Bilal Hasan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Saikia's plurality path — submission (5 of 9 wins: guillotine, two triangles, RNC), i.e. catching Hasan on a scramble, an over-committed entry, or off a shot — landing on a Hasan grappling/defensive-grappling record that the dossier does not document in either direction.
Won. Tom Pagliarulo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Mulumba drags it to the mat and lands his signature rear-naked-choke/submission finish, hitting Pagliarulo's documented submission loss (armbar R3 vs Murad).
Lost. Joe Kropschot won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kropschot's rear-naked choke — 6 submission wins, three straight RNCs, current LFA champion out of a jiu-jitsu room — catches Kunneman in a scramble past the first round, where Kunneman has essentially no recorded mileage.
Won. Quillan Salkilld won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gamrot’s six-win submission game reaches top position and reproduces the rear-naked-choke vulnerability documented in Salkilld’s lone loss.
Lost. Diego Ferreira won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ferreira’s documented standing KO power lands on Quarantillo’s repeated knockout vulnerability, including his recent punch stoppage against Cub Swanson.
Won. Yadier del Valle won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Elkins uses his documented takedown-backed decision grind, durability, and home-field judging context to deny del Valle’s submissions and bank rounds.
Won. Alexia Thainara won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lemos can exploit Thainara’s documented submission vulnerability—her only loss was a third-round guillotine—with one of her own three submission wins.
Won. Ty Miller won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Goff’s unconditional standing knockout power—7 KO/TKOs in 9 wins—lands before Miller can establish his longer-range striking game, although Miller’s shallow dossier contains no documented matching durability flaw.
Won. Steven Asplund won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pat uses his 81-inch reach and documented KO/TKO A-game to land first in a heavyweight striking exchange, although Asplund has no documented professional KO/TKO loss.
Won. Diyar Nurgozhay won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Lopes’s five-win submission A-game reaches Nurgozhay’s documented flaw of consecutive submission losses.
Won. José Montanha won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sutherland keeps the fight standing and lands his documented knockout A-game before Montanha can win the grappling phase.
Won. Manoel Sousa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Miranda uses his four-inch reach advantage, southpaw geometry, and proven decision endurance to outpoint Sousa, whose only documented loss was a decision.
Lost. Miles Johns won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Johns turns the bout into his signature decision grind, using his substantially deeper record of sustained three-round success to outpoint Vazquez.
Won. Juliana Miller won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Oliveira’s six-win KO/TKO A-game lands on Miller’s documented 2023 first-round loss by punches.
Won. Carol Foro won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Canuto secures the grappling phase and converts her documented submission A-game against Foro, whose dossier contains no demonstrated answer to a submission specialist.
Won. Bryan Battle won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rosta’s documented decision grind lands on Battle’s demonstrated vulnerability to an orthodox, similarly built opponent capable of winning every round, as Fakhretdinov did.
Lost. Simeon Powell won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Powell’s live knockout A-game lands on Yagshimuradov’s documented KO/TKO vulnerability, previously exploited by Mikhail Ragozin and Corey Anderson.
Lost. Aaron Jeffery won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Jeffery’s documented standing power lands before Silveira can establish his conditional grappling path.
Won. Josh Fremd won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gregory lands his documented knockout A-game on Fremd’s documented vulnerability to punches, which produced KO/TKO losses to Rodrigues and Kopylov.
Lost. Denis Goltsov won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Goltsov keeps the fight standing and lands his documented knockout offense before Mezhiev can win the grappling phase.
Won. Cheyden Leialoha won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ring secures an entry and applies his five-submission A-game before Leialoha’s standing power takes effect, although grappling defeat is not a documented Leialoha flaw.
Lost. Jonathan Martin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Martin secures a grappling phase and lands his documented submission A-game against Lopshire’s unverified ground adversity.
Lost. Maxwell Djantou Nana won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nana’s documented seven-win knockout A-game lands on Neves’ documented first-round knockout loss to Jhonata Diniz.
Lost. Trey Waters won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Waters lands his own documented submission game—3 career submission wins—on Carson’s documented submission vulnerability from the third-round armbar loss to Posener.
Lost. Cheyanne Bowers won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bowers secures the necessary grappling position and lands her five-win submission A-game, with her activity and American home-judging advantage providing secondary support if the fight reaches the cards.
Won. Stephanie Luciano won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Spasić's kickboxing power — her documented A-game, 6 of 7 wins by ko/tko — accumulates on Luciano and lands the same R3 stoppage she scored on her last two finished opponents, with a Belgrade crowd and home cards behind her if it goes the distance.
Lost. Noah Gugnon won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gugnon's documented ko/tko power (6 ko/tko, four of them R1 inside his live streak) lands on Janicic's in-dossier ko/tko loss (Negucić, R2, 2016) — a punchers' exchange where the younger, faster starter connects first.
Won. Uroš Medić won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rodriguez's documented standing power (9 ko/tko, KO of Ponzinibbio R3 in 2025) as a 74"-reach southpaw landing on Medić's documented chin flaw — the R1 ko/tko loss to southpaw Punahele Soriano in Jan 2025 — with Rodriguez's proven 15-minute engine giving him three full rounds of chances against a man who has never once seen R3.
Won. Navajo Stirling won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Blachowicz's documented finishing game — 10 ko/tko and 9 submission wins, with the veteran's habit of surviving early and landing late (Santos-style R3 power, Teixeira-style scramble) — catches a young fighter who has never had to answer adversity on record and drowns him in deep water.
Won. Aleksandar Rakic won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Tybura's documented ko/tko power (10 of 27 wins) landing on Rakic's documented and accelerating KO/TKO flaw (Blachowicz R3 2022, Prochazka R2 2024, Murzakanov R1 2025), with the secondary version being Tybura's control grind repeating the Ankalaev out-pointing (28-29, 28-29, 28-29).
Lost. Robert Valentin won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Valentin's own standing ko/tko path (3 documented ko/tko wins, 77" reach vs 74") lands on Todorović's sharpest documented flaw — four ko/tko losses, every one of them in Round 1 (Soriano, Njokuani, Duncan, Abdul-Malik), meaning a single clean shot in the first five minutes ends it.
Lost. Gilbert Urbina won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Urbina gets past the early power, wins the grappling entry, and finds a submission on the same hole Strzelczyk armbarred in R2 (2020), with Čepo's R3 ko/tko loss to Wawrzyniak (2023) as evidence he is takeable once the fight goes long.
Lost. Tofiq Musayev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Musayev's documented KO/TKO power (18 of 23 wins) landing on the one in-dossier hole Klein has for it — the R1 ko/tko loss to Igor Tarytsa (2017) — before Klein's volume and grappling can accumulate.
Won. Michael Oliveira won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Elliott does exactly what his record documents — takedowns and 200+ seconds of control per round plus the higher output — and out-grinds a debutant whose only decision came against a 1-0 opponent into a 3-round unanimous verdict.
Won. Borislav Nikolic won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Vologdin's own submission game (4 of 12 wins, most recently an R1 arm-triangle in June 2025) landing on Nikolic's single documented finish loss — a R3 guillotine to Brad Katona, a 64.5" orthodox UFC-level fighter whose build and stance Vologdin (63", orthodox) matches almost exactly — with the one-week camp making a deep-water grappling grind the live route.
Won. Bogdan Grad won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Buzukja's UNCONDITIONAL standing power (5 ko/tko wins) lands on Grad's documented chin — Grad has been finished by punches twice, R1 by Tom Nolan (2023-08-08) and R2 by Luke Riley (2025-11-22), the latter his most recent outing.
Won. Mateusz Rębecki won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Prepolec's documented KO power (10 ko/tko, 78% finish) lands on Rębecki's documented chin cracks — KO/TKO'd by Ferreira R3 in 2024 and by Kielek R2 — with Rębecki taking this on short turnaround after an R3 rear-naked-choke loss in May.
Won. Nina Milošević won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cowan uses her length and southpaw angle to keep the fight at range and leans on her takedown-and-control minutes (1.5 TD, ~4.5 min control per fight) to bank rounds, dragging this into exactly the kind of close three-round decision that produced Milošević's lone documented loss.
Won. Jovan Leka won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Poppeck's UNCONDITIONAL standing power (13 ko/tko, most recently TKO by elbows over Hosek), proven against a materially higher grade of opposition, catches Leka in an early exchange before the size and pace gap can express itself.
Won. Aristides Vinicius Dias won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cangaty defends the grappling entry, keeps the fight standing for fifteen minutes, and banks a unanimous decision — the method behind 6 of his 12 wins and two of his last three, and the exact way Dias lost to Juan Pedroso (2025) and Renan Oliveira (2024).
Won. Felipe Rosa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kadosoe's documented KO power (KO by punch, R3, 2026-03-15) lands on Rosa's documented R1 KO/TKO loss — the same method class as the only defeat on Rosa's record, and the sharpest (A-game × flaw) pairing available in either dossier.
Won. Daniel Araujo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gabriel's documented KO/TKO A-game — 5 ko/tko wins and two R1 TKOs inside the last five months — landing on Araujo's in-dossier TKO (Punches) R1 loss.
Won. Juan Pablo Vieira won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Terencio's documented KO/TKO power (7 of 10 wins) catches a 22-year-old whose chin has never been tested by anyone who could hurt him, and the level-of-opposition gap behind the 9-0 turns out to be the whole story.
Lost. Gabriel Vinicius won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Vinicius wins the grappling entry early and takes the back or the front headlock, finishing inside a round the way he did against Anselmo and Basto — the same path that produced 4 of his 7 wins.
Won. Leonardo Cerboni won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Pereira lands his signature grappling entry and finishes with the rear-naked choke — 7 of his 12 wins are submissions and his most recent fight was an R1 RNC — against a Cerboni grappling defense that has never actually been tested by a documented submission threat.
Lost. Herbeth Sousa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sousa's submission game (13 career subs, 3 in his last 4 including a R1 guillotine) catches Portillo in a scramble — the same grappling phase where Portillo does most of his own winning.
Won. Usman Nurmagomedov won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Colgan's documented unanimous-decision grind (his sharpest A-game: 7 UDs, several one-sided) turns this into a close 5-round points fight in front of a home crowd — the one shape Usman has actually been pushed in, the 47-47 majority card against Hughes at similar orthodox/70-inch dimensions, with our own study showing a +8.3pt home-fighter judging lean in the USA.
Won. Dakota Ditcheva won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Kielholtz's documented A-game — a three-round kickboxing points fight, the method she has won her last three by, including a 30-27 sweep of the same Inaba who took Ditcheva the distance — gets her the cards against a rusty opponent unwilling to sit down on a twice-broken hand.
Won. Amru Magomedov won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Alvarez eats the early power and grappling, drags it into rounds two and three, and out-works Magomedov on volume for a decision — Magomedov's last two scorecards were 2021 and 2017, so nothing recent proves he can win a full-fight grind against a durable, high-output opponent.
Won. Moustapha Diakhaté won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Walker's documented first-round finishing burst — TKO by punches and an arm-triangle, both inside five minutes — catches Diakhaté in an opening exchange between two 76"-reach fighters before the level gap can express itself.
Lost. Lazaro Dayron won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Dayron's documented standing KO power lands on Stots's documented chin — Stots has been finished in Round 1 twice (Merab Dvalishvili spinning back fist 2017, Patchy Mix 2023), the single sharpest (A-game × flaw) pairing on the board.
Lost. Sean Gauci won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gauci does exactly what his record says he does — a volume-and-takedown decision grind over 15 minutes, the one way Begosso has ever lost (0-4 when the fight reaches the cards against quality).
Won. Omar El Dafrawy won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Piersma drags it to the mat and finishes with the rear-naked choke — his live, twice-repeated finishing sequence — against a fighter whose grappling defense is asserted only by the absence of a sub loss rather than by any documented control record.
Won. Tatiana Postarnakova won.
Documented risk, written before the result: De La Rosa's own documented submission game (8 of 13 career wins, plus the deepest grappling experience in the bout) catches an opponent whose grappling defense has never been tested by a fighter at this level, especially if De La Rosa lands the entry off a scramble in the championship-free 3-round distance where she is the more proven deep-water competitor.
Won. Levan Khabalaev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Delva's own documented KO/TKO power (4 of 10 wins) lands first on a 5-0 prospect with no adversity data at all, and Delva's 11-bout ledger gives him the deep-water and late-round experience Khabalaev has never been asked for.
Won. Abdul Hussein won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gibson's six documented submission wins and 71"-reach veteran grind land on Hussein's documented R1 guillotine loss (Abzakh 2018) and his decision loss to a rangy 70"-reach grappler (Mokaev) — a genuine style-and-tools match under decision-column discipline.
Won. Magomed Ankalaev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Guskov's documented one-shot KO A-game (15 ko/tko, live — R1 KO of Krylov two weeks before this date) landing on Ankalaev's documented R1 KO/TKO loss to Pereira.
Lost. Ramazan Temirov won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Temirov's documented one-shot KO/TKO A-game (13 ko/tko, live R1 KO of Vergara) landing on Erceg's documented R1 KO/TKO-by-punch loss to Kai Kara-France — a proven power puncher cracking the one proven hole in Erceg's durability.
Lost. Magomed Zaynukov won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Zaynukov's documented ko/tko power (5 KO wins, his early run all first-round stoppages) catches Rzepecki in the standing exchanges both men will start in — but it maps onto no documented flaw: Rzepecki's only career loss is an amateur unanimous decision, not a finish-class defeat.
Won. Rizvan Kuniev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Fortune's documented wrestling-based decision grind (UD over Tybura on his live streak, dominant TD/control numbers) landing on Kuniev's documented decision-loss column to wrestlers — the Blaydes/Willis pattern, style-matched.
Won. Abubakar Vagaev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Izagakhmaev's documented finishing ability (73% finish rate; 3 ko/tko incl. the R1 Aoki KO, plus ground strikes off his entries) landing on Vagaev's thrice-documented KO hole (Ushukov R4, Abdulaev R2, Slipenko R2 — all ko/tko losses to finishers).
Won. Valter Walker won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Petersen grinds Walker with takedowns and top control to a three-round decision — a decision is Walker's only documented loss method, and Petersen's 30-27/30-26 control decisions are a documented path — while his one-punch power looms in every standing exchange off the ring-rusted return.
Won. Muhammad Said won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Said's documented ko/tko A-game (6 of 9 wins, kick-finish arsenal) lands on Jacoby's documented finish-by-strikes losses — most sharply the Reyes R1 KO at light heavyweight in 2024 — and the same bout ends the other way if Jacoby's own live 3-KO streak connects first.
Won. Sam Patterson won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ponzinibbio's documented KO power (18 ko/tko wins, one as recently as Jan 2025) landing on Patterson's documented R1 KO loss to a compact orthodox puncher (Ashmouz 2023) — Ponzinibbio at 73" is precisely that shorter power-puncher profile.
Won. Axel Sola won.
Documented risk, written before the result: The sharpest documented pairing is Bonfim's UNCONDITIONAL KO/TKO power (10 KO wins) catching Sola in the pocket — but it lands on no documented flaw, since Sola's entire loss column contains only decisions.
Won. Magomed Tuchalov won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ribeiro's documented finishing A-game (9 KO / 8 subs, 94% finish rate) catches the debuting Tuchalov early in a firefight between two low-durability-margin finishers — Tuchalov's chin and grappling defense are unproven at this level, with no loss column to certify either.
Won. Nurullo Aliev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Davis's documented KO/TKO A-game (8 ko/tko wins, most recent July 2025) lands before the grind accumulates — the sharpest available pairing, since Aliev's only documented cracks are close cards (28-28 majority vs Alves) rather than any finish loss.
Lost. Dricus Du Plessis won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Du Plessis's finish-heavy profile (KO or submission, 87% finish rate) catches Usman, who has been finished twice before (submission 2013, KO/tko-by-kick 2022) and is now a fighter leaning on aging physical tools.
Won. Christian Leroy Duncan won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Cannonier's own documented KO power (his plurality win method, most recent win a KO) catches Duncan early before the fight ever reaches the championship rounds where Duncan's age/output edge would matter.
Lost. Chase Hooper won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hooper's documented ko/tko win method (4 finishes on the record, plus real volume-striking output at 38.9 sig strikes landed/fight) lands on Ramirez's fully-documented flaw — all 3 career losses are by KO/TKO, including his last two.
Won. Fatima Kline won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ricci's decision/control-grind A-game (7 decision wins, BJJ background, 213.8s control avg) lands on Kline's one documented flaw — her sole loss (to Jasudavicius) came by decision when the fight went the distance.
Won. Tommy McMillen won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Montes' live 4-fight submission streak (his documented signature A-game) could catch McMillen if a scramble or clinch exchange gives him an opening for an anaconda/D'Arce-style choke.
Lost. Jose Miguel Delgado won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Delgado's finishing power (6 ko/tko wins) plus a reach edge even larger than the fighter who already beat Bashi by decision (74" vs. the 71.5" that out-pointed him) could let him hurt or out-range Bashi before the control game takes over.
Lost. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani won.
Documented risk, written before the result: JP's switch stance and 72" reach closely mirror Palatnikov (switch, 72.5" reach), the exact profile that already finished Ko by KO — if JP's power lands the same way, Ko's documented KO-susceptibility repeats.
Won. Felipe Franco won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Rodrigues' 5/5 KO finishing rate could catch Franco early on the feet — not a documented match against a specific Franco flaw (no KO loss on his record), but Franco is coming off a decision loss to a longer opponent (Pinto), showing he can be out-worked into deep water if he can't finish first.
Won. Ezra Elliott won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Anderson's own submission game (8/11 wins, most recent three all subs — kneebar, kneebar, inverted heel hook) is a live, documented A-game that could catch Elliott exactly the way Elliott himself likes to win.
Won. Alden Coria won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nicoll's submission game (3 sub wins on record) catches Coria the way Michael Cyr's rear-naked choke did in 2022 — Coria's one documented submission loss.
Won. RJ Harris won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Hines is the proven finisher here (89% finish rate, 5 documented submission wins plus real KO power) — if a scramble or clinch entry opens up, he has the demonstrated tools to catch or drop Harris, and Harris has no adversity data to show he can survive that kind of pressure.
Lost. Dione Barbosa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Barbosa's documented submission A-game (6 career subs, 50% finish rate via sub) lands on Melisano's two documented submission losses (guillotine R2, RNC R2) if the fight ever hits the mat.
Won. Farid Basharat won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Strongest number on the card (0.68/0.70); Garza concerns handled in-dossier.
Won. Alessandro Costa won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Durden's wrestle-grind to R3 vs Costa's late fade — KEY-RISK rule held it at Low.
Lost. Ryan Gandra won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Gandra's fast R1 blitz is the risk both orderings named.
Won. Damian Pinas won.
Lost. Wang Cong won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Wang's southpaw KO power is the shared key risk.
Won. Luke Riley won.
Won. Adrian Yañez won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Med/Low split across orderings — cautious tier Low.
Won. Gable Steveson won.
Won. Robert Whittaker won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Med/Low split across orderings — cautious tier Low.
Lost. Bobby Green won.
Lost. Brandon Royval won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Both orderings landed on Kavanagh at Med.
Lost. Mario Bautista won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Bautista's decision-grind volume is a live path either way.
Lost. Paddy Pimblett won.
Documented risk, written before the result: BSD's pressure-grappling is the exact style in Pimblett's loss column.
Won. Max Holloway won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Order-flip forced Low: AB took McGregor 0.55, BA took Holloway 0.56 — coin flip by construction.
Won. Tahir Abdullayev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Nascimento grinds out rounds to a unanimous decision, mirroring the exact profile (unanimous decision) that has beaten Abdullayev twice before.
Won. Daniil Donchenko won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Berggren's proven standing power (5 ko/tko wins, current 2-fight KO streak) catches Donchenko early — this is Berggren's most credible path, but Donchenko's dossier shows zero finish losses of any kind, so there's no documented chin/finish flaw for that power to land on.
Lost. Kaan Ofli won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Ofli's submission game is his single most common finish method (7 of 14 wins), and it lands squarely on Reyes's own documented submission-loss flaw (guillotine, Jhon Bedoya, 2018).
Lost. Asu Almabayev won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Almabayev's control-heavy grinding A-game (dominant decision scorecards, 10 submissions, big TD/control averages) mirrors the exact pattern that has beaten Johnson in 6 of his 8 career losses — repeated competitive/close decision losses.
Lost. Abus Magomedov won.
Won. Matheus Camilo won.
Documented risk, written before the result: Sadykhov's documented submission game (2 of 11 career wins) lands on Camilo's repeated, well-documented submission-loss pattern (3 losses, most recently within the past year).
A striker returning from two years out against a wrestler who has already timed his entries once, with a finishing weakness sitting in between.
A reach and calf kick edge meets a chin question in a fight that could swing on who lands the centreline exchange first.
A submission finisher walks in against a composed puncher who has learned exactly how to punish a fighter for backing up.
Bones backs Soriano's positional dominance and centreline power over Donchenko's pressure and clinch work.
Syguła has a documented hole on the mat, and Cornolle's whole game is built to climb into exactly that hole.
Wood has the better wins on paper, but Andrusca's finishing paths line up too well with how Wood actually gets hit and taken down.
Keita hits harder and moves better, but Naimov has a specific route through him that nobody else has shown yet.
No market to beat here, but Bones still lands on Felipe Lima by tracing exactly who has outboxed Morgan Charrière before.
