Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction

Chicago should win a close one at Green Bay on Sunday by about two points. The Bears are 3-1 and playing some of the best defense in the league, while the 2-2 Packers have the better quarterback in Jordan Love but very little healthy around him. The catch is that Chicago starts backup Tyson Bagent on the road, and both offensive lines sat out much of Wednesday's practice. That keeps our lean small. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How the two teams got here

Chicago is 3-1 in its second season under head coach Ben Johnson, and it has gotten there with three different quarterbacks. The Bears won 59-37 at Carolina in a shootout, lost 9-3 at home to Minnesota in the game where Caleb Williams was hurt, beat Philadelphia 27-7 with Case Keenum starting and beat the Jets 23-12 with Bagent starting. Sunday is their first road game since Week 1.

Green Bay is 2-2, but the record is kinder than the scoreboard. The Packers lost 39-22 at Minnesota, won 20-17 at the Jets, lost 35-14 at home to Atlanta and won 17-14 at Tampa Bay. They have been outscored by 30 points on the season. Both wins came by a field goal, the second against an undrafted rookie quarterback making his first start, and both losses were routs. Both teams come in on normal rest.

Chicago's case

The Bears' defense is the best unit in this game. By expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps or hurts a team's chances of scoring, Chicago ranks third against the pass. It is fourth in points allowed at 16.2 per game and seventh in pass rush. The soft spot is the run, where the Bears rank 26th in EPA allowed.

The offense has held up through the quarterback changes. Chicago ranks eighth in pass EPA per dropback, seventh in rush EPA and fifth in pass protection, and it is scoring 28 points a game. Against the Jets, with Bagent under center, Johnson leaned on heavy personnel and the ground game. The Bears ran 50 times on 86 plays and did not go three-and-out once. The blemishes were in the red zone, where they scored only two touchdowns in seven trips, and two turnovers.

That is the formula: defense, the run and keeping the quarterback out of obvious passing downs. The Minnesota loss shows what beats it. The Vikings got pressure on 34 percent of dropbacks, the run stalled and Chicago managed three points.

Green Bay's case

Jordan Love is healthy, and he is the best quarterback on the field Sunday. He was efficient at Tampa Bay, where he was not sacked. When Love is kept clean he can hit Watson, Golden and Kraft, and that is how Green Bay wins this game.

The problem is everything around him. The Packers rank last in the league in rush EPA and 25th in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits allowed, and they are 28th in scoring at 18.2 points per game. Minnesota hit the quarterback 15 times in the opener, and Atlanta added 12 more hits. Running back Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner's Exempt List and has not played a snap this season, and receiver Reed is on injured reserve.

The defense has not picked up the slack. Green Bay ranks 21st against the pass by EPA, 24th against the run and 23rd in points allowed. Atlanta ran 39 times against this group and never went three-and-out. Micah Parsons has not played this season because of an ACL injury, and now linebacker Edgerrin Cooper is gone too.

Injuries and lineup news

Tyson Bagent starts at quarterback for Chicago, according to Ben Johnson. Caleb Williams has a Grade 2 hamstring injury, is out and will not practice this week. Case Keenum is the backup. Jordan Love starts for Green Bay.

Chicago's offensive line is the biggest question on its side. Left tackle Braxton Jones is on injured reserve, with Theo Benedet starting in his place. On Wednesday, left guard Joe Thuney (pectoral), right guard Jonah Jackson (ankle) and right tackle Darnell Wright (ankle) all did not practice. Neither did running backs D'Andre Swift (hip and knee) and Kyle Monangai (thumb and toe). Johnson tied the lighter day to the long Jets game, so some of this may be workload management. Still, the backup guards, Jordan McFadden and Luke Newman, have barely played this season.

Green Bay's line is in worse shape. Right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele is on injured reserve. Aaron Banks (knee and toe), Jacob Monk (quad) and Jager Burton (back) all missed Wednesday's practice, and Anthony Belton (knee) was limited. On defense, Cooper tore his Achilles at Tampa Bay and is on injured reserve. He played every defensive snap in Week 4 and had 30 tackles and three sacks. Parsons remains out, with Week 6 the earliest target for his return.

These are Wednesday reports, so the picture can change. Friday's final report is the one to watch for Thuney, Jackson, Wright and Swift on the Chicago side and for Banks, Monk, Burton and Belton on the Green Bay side. Weather should not matter. The forecast for Lambeau Field is about 78 degrees and dry, with wind around 13 miles per hour.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that this game turns on the line of scrimmage, and the first matchup favors Chicago clearly. The Bears' pass rush and pass defense are both among the league's best, and they face a Green Bay line that could start backups at three or four spots. The Packers also have no run game to lean on to slow that rush down. That is the single biggest reason we lean to Chicago.

The second matchup points the same way. Chicago wants to run the ball with heavy personnel, and Green Bay's run defense ranked 24th in EPA before it lost Cooper. Atlanta showed how much damage a committed ground game can do against this front.

The third factor pushes back toward Green Bay. Chicago is bringing a backup quarterback into Lambeau behind its own banged-up line, and Love is a clear advantage for the home team at the most important position. We also do not take the Bears' big wins at face value. The Philadelphia margin was helped by three Eagles turnovers, and the Jets were missing four starters. Add it up and we have Chicago by about two in a division game that could go either way.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is Bagent making a road start behind a line that could be missing three more starters. If Thuney, Jackson and Wright cannot play, Chicago's run-first plan loses its foundation. Bagent would then have to win the game from the pocket, and our read moves to a coin flip or to Green Bay.

The other half of the risk is Love. He is the better quarterback, and he showed at Tampa Bay what he can do when his protection holds. If Green Bay gets enough of its linemen back by Sunday to keep him upright, the Packers at home become the more likely winner.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams, quarterback, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 86 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Tyson Bagent, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Cam Lewis, cornerback, on the practice report (hip): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 79 percent, 76 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Malik Muhammad II, who has already been playing a starter's share.

D'Andre Swift, running back, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 68 percent, 69 percent, 35 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kyle Monangai, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Darnell Wright, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Theo Benedet, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Joe Thuney, guard, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jordan McFadden, who has seen little action.

Jonah Jackson, guard, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Luke Newman, who has seen little action.

Braxton Jones, offensive tackle, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 74 percent, 46 percent, did not play.

Kyle Monangai, running back, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 34 percent, 31 percent, 54 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Roschon Johnson, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Anthony Johnson Jr., Kyler Gordon, Keyshaun Elliott.

Green Bay Packers

Anthony Belton, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 95 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Travis Glover, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Brandon Cisse, cornerback, on the practice report (neck): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 99 percent, 86 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Carrington Valentine, who has seen little action.

Lukas Van Ness, defensive end, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 73 percent, 69 percent, 73 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Brenton Cox Jr., who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Edgerrin Cooper, linebacker, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 76 percent, 54 percent.

Aaron Banks, guard, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 37 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Laken Tomlinson, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Devonte Wyatt, defensive tackle, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 58 percent, 48 percent, 40 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Warren Brinson, who has not played a snap this season, and he is also on the injury report.

Jacob Monk, center, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 89 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Laken Tomlinson, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Jager Burton, center, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 39 percent, 100 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Donovan Jennings, who has seen little action.

Chris Brooks, running back, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 46 percent, 41 percent, 17 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Josh Jacobs, who has not played a snap this season.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Savion Williams, Anthony Campbell, Micah Parsons, Warren Brinson.

The verdict

We expect Chicago to win by about two, driven by its pass rush against a depleted Green Bay line and its run game against a defense that just lost Edgerrin Cooper. Friday's final injury report on both offensive lines could still move this toward an even game. Chicago is starting a backup quarterback, and that alone keeps this off our list of plays. This is a forecast, not an official play.