Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

Green Bay visits Tampa Bay on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium. The question that shapes the game is who throws for the Buccaneers. Our forecast, made while Baker Mayfield's thumb was being evaluated, has Green Bay winning by about 4 points.

Since then, coach Todd Bowles has named undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels the starter, saying Mayfield's dislocated right thumb will cost him a minimum of three weeks (JoeBucsFan, September 28). Because the starter changed after our read, the forecast stays on hold until we re-read the game, and there is no official play.

The quarterback situation

Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand late in Tampa Bay's Week 3 loss to Minnesota. Bowles said there was no tear and no surgery is needed. Mayfield did not practice on September 30 or October 1, according to the official injury reports.

Daniels, an undrafted rookie out of Kansas, won the backup job in the preseason, and his only regular season snaps came in relief late in that Minnesota loss. Sunday is his first NFL start.

What each outcome means

Interpretation: a healthy Mayfield would give Tampa Bay a veteran who can work the middle of the field to Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr., and this would be a closer game. With Daniels, the likelier plan is the one Tampa already leans on: hand the ball to Bucky Irving, keep the game short, and let the defense carry it.

That plan has a ceiling. Even with Mayfield, Tampa's passing offense ranks 31st in efficiency through three weeks, the Buccaneers have 7 giveaways, among the most in the league, and their line has allowed the second highest rate of sacks plus quarterback hits (our team stats through Week 3). Asking a rookie to protect the ball in that setting is the core of our lean toward Green Bay.

Green Bay's case

Green Bay keeps Jordan Love, and the quarterback gap is the biggest factor in our read. The Packers rank fourth in passing yards per game at 266.7, and Christian Watson has 17 catches for 284 yards and four touchdowns (ESPN, September 30).

Green Bay also brings extra rest: its Week 3 game against Atlanta came 10 days before this kickoff, while Tampa Bay is on a normal seven-day turnaround. The Packers (1-2) need the reset. Atlanta beat them 35-14 at Lambeau Field, and their run game is last in the league at 48.7 yards per game.

Tampa Bay's case

The Buccaneers (0-3) have a real defensive identity. They allow 76.0 rushing yards per game, second fewest in the league, and rank sixth in total yards allowed. That lines up well against a Green Bay run game averaging 3.0 yards per carry behind a line that has allowed the league's highest rate of sacks plus quarterback hits.

Irving leads Tampa Bay with 180 rushing yards, and Green Bay's run defense ranks 28th at 138.7 yards allowed per game. Interpretation: Tampa's path is to run, shorten the game, and make Love throw under pressure.

Other injuries

Tampa Bay (buccaneers.com, October 1): outside linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. (groin, shoulder), linebacker SirVocea Dennis (calf), tight end Ko Kieft (elbow) and cornerback Jacob Parrish (personal) did not practice. Irving (glute) was limited again, as were outside linebacker Yaya Diaby and defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches. Godwin (ankle) and linebacker Josiah Trotter (shoulder) practiced fully.

Green Bay: guard Aaron Banks, defensive tackle Anthony Campbell and interior lineman Jacob Monk (quadricep) did not practice on October 1; linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (concussion, shoulder) and edge rusher Lukas Van Ness (shoulder) were limited. Receiver Jayden Reed went on injured reserve ahead of season-ending neck surgery, and the Packers added veteran guard Kevin Zeitler (ESPN, September 30). Coach Matt LaFleur said on September 28 that Micah Parsons, recovering from a torn ACL, will not practice this week (NBC Sports).

The key risk

The risk is that Tampa Bay's formula works anyway. If Daniels keeps the ball safe and leans on Irving, and the defense forces turnovers against a leaky Green Bay line, Tampa's run and defense identity can win at home. Bowles also left room for an earlier Mayfield return, and any change in who starts would change the read.

The verdict

Our current lean is Green Bay by about 4 points, built on Love against a rookie in his first start, plus extra rest. The market makes Green Bay about a 3.5 point favorite, close to our number, so there is no edge. The forecast remains on hold while we re-read the game with Daniels as the starter, and there is no official play.