New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

Our forecast: the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots by about a touchdown at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, October 4, at 1:00 PM ET. We locked this read on September 28 while blind to the market, with Buffalo winning by about seven and a half points. Both starting quarterbacks practiced fully this week, so the read stands. The market makes Buffalo about a 7 point favorite, so our number is in line with it and this is a forecast, not an official play.

Buffalo's case

Buffalo is 3-0 and has scored 33.7 points per game, the most in the league, according to our tables built from nflverse play-by-play. Its passing offense ranks second in expected points added per dropback, and the run game ranks fourth at 155 yards per game.

The defense brings the heat. Greg Rousseau has at least two sacks in each of Buffalo's first three games, the first Bill ever to open a season that way, and the defense ranks third in sacks plus quarterback hits per dropback. Edge rusher Bradley Chubb practiced fully this week.

New England's case

New England is 1-2, and its defense has carried the team: 17.0 points allowed per game (sixth fewest) and 170 passing yards allowed per game (second fewest). Bills head coach Joe Brady called the Patriots "a hard team to game plan for," and Buffalo's team site notes only three teams have blitzed more often.

The offense is the problem. New England scores 12.0 points per game, 31st in the league, and Drake Maye has one touchdown pass, six interceptions and a lost fumble, per ESPN. Top receiver A.J. Brown is on injured reserve. In the 35-6 loss at Jacksonville in Week 3, Maye threw for under 200 yards with two interceptions, and the Patriots went 0 for 4 on red zone touchdowns.

Injuries and lineup news

Quarterbacks. Maye is listed with a right shoulder injury but was a full participant on September 30 and October 1, according to the Patriots' official report. He told ESPN, "I wouldn't say there is a problem with my shoulder." Josh Allen took a hit to his left knee late in Week 3, but he practiced fully and carries no designation on the report.

New England. Starter Mike Onwenu broke his ankle in Week 2 and is on injured reserve. Greg Van Roten, who replaced him at right guard, went on injured reserve on September 29 (thigh), and coach Mike Vrabel said backup center Ben Brown would take snaps there. Right tackle Morgan Moses (foot), cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and defensive tackle Christian Barmore (shoulder) did not practice either day.

Buffalo. Cornerback Christian Benford (toe) did not practice either day. Receiver DJ Moore (shoulder) was limited both days, and Keon Coleman (ankle) sat out September 30 before practicing on a limited basis October 1. Guard Ar'maj Reed-Adams (elbow), who missed Week 3, practiced fully.

Where the game turns

Our interpretation: the decisive matchup is Buffalo's pass rush against a New England line on its third right guard and possibly without its starting right tackle. ESPN reports Maye faced pressure on nearly half his dropbacks at Jacksonville and has three interceptions and no touchdowns under pressure this season. If Rousseau and Chubb win that side, the Patriots have shown little to fall back on.

The second lever is Buffalo's run game. New England ranks 30th in expected points allowed per rush, and James Cook ran for 154 yards against the Chargers. This is also a home divisional game with a full week of rest for both sides.

The key risk

Buffalo's own sloppiness is the main way New England hangs around. The Bills committed five turnovers against the Chargers (two interceptions and three lost fumbles) and still won 24-16, and their protection allowed a sack or hit on about a third of Allen's dropbacks. Against a defense that blitzes this often, giveaways could keep the game close.

Health matters on this side too. Buffalo ranks 27th in passing yards allowed, and Benford's absence would thin the cornerbacks. Our lock also flagged Buffalo's line and defensive front depth, so the final reports on defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (illness, limited October 1) are worth watching.

The verdict

We expect the Buffalo Bills to beat the New England Patriots by about a touchdown. The market makes Buffalo about a 7 point favorite, so our number is in line with it and there is no official play on this game. We will update this page if the final injury reports change either starting quarterback's status.