Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Prediction

New England should beat Las Vegas on Sunday by about three points. Drake Maye at home is the best player in the game, and the Raiders are making a cross-country trip for an early kickoff. It is closer than last year's records would suggest, though, because Las Vegas looks like a different team under new head coach Klint Kubiak and quarterback Kirk Cousins, and the Patriots opened the practice week with both starting cornerbacks sitting out. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How both teams got here

Las Vegas is 3-1 in Kubiak's first year. The Raiders beat Miami 27-13 at home, won 26-14 at the Chargers, won 35-27 at New Orleans and then lost 30-27 at home to Kansas City. That is a combined 31 points better than their opponents through four games. Miami and New Orleans are weak opponents, so the results that tell us the most are the 12-point road win over the Chargers and the three-point loss to the Chiefs.

New England is 2-2 under Mike Vrabel and has been much harder to pin down. The Patriots lost 13-10 at Seattle, beat Pittsburgh 20-3 at home, lost 35-6 at Jacksonville and then won 29-26 at Buffalo. That is one dominant home win, one blowout loss and one very good road win, and it adds up to 12 points worse than their opponents overall. They are home on normal rest this week.

Las Vegas's case

The Raiders' offense ranked 32nd in points in 2025. Through four games this season it ranks 8th at 28.8 points per game. By expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, the passing game has gone from 30th last year to 11th per dropback. Cousins is the team's working starter, and he threw 52 times against Kansas City, completing 31 for 365 yards. The offense runs through heavy personnel and play-action to the tight ends. Michael Mayer caught eight passes for 82 yards last week, and Brock Bowers and Ian Thomas both scored.

The defense is the stronger unit. Las Vegas ranks 5th against the pass and 7th against the run by EPA allowed, and its pass rush has jumped from 21st to 2nd in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits, with Maxx Crosby leading the pressure. The win at the Chargers was a defensive win, because the offense was below average on a per-play basis that day.

The weakness is the run game, which ranks 29th in EPA per rush. Ashton Jeanty carried 15 times for 58 yards last week. The Chiefs loss was competitive and turned on a 65-yard run allowed and a lost fumble on a kickoff. The Raiders lose when the run defense gives up big plays and when protection breaks down on obvious passing downs.

New England's case

Maye is the reason to pick the Patriots. In the win at Buffalo the offense was excellent while the game was competitive, went 4 for 4 in the red zone, and Maye added 54 yards on eight runs. New England wins with his arm, his legs and a pass defense that ranks 6th in EPA allowed and 5th in yards allowed.

The season numbers are well below last year's, however. An offense that led the league in pass EPA in 2025 ranks 21st this season, 23rd on the ground and 30th in scoring at 16.2 points per game. The blowout at Jacksonville was built on Maye turnovers: a strip sack, an interception at the goal line and a late interception on an out route. He also fumbled three times at Buffalo. The Patriots lose when Maye is pressured into giveaways.

The defense has one clear soft spot. New England ranks 30th in EPA allowed per rush, although the Raiders may be one of the teams least equipped to take advantage of it.

Injuries and lineup news

Maye was a full participant on Wednesday with his right shoulder listed, and he starts for New England. Cousins starts for Las Vegas, with Fernando Mendoza as his backup.

The Patriots' cornerback room is the biggest story. Both starters, Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Carlton Davis III (neck), did not practice Wednesday. Gonzalez missed the Buffalo game, and Davis played every defensive snap in it. Depth corner Karon Prunty also sat out, while Charles Woods and Channing Canada were limited. On offense, receiver Mack Hollins (calf) did not practice, and Vrabel doubted he would for a couple of days. A.J. Brown is still on injured reserve and is not eligible to return until next week. Guards Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten, the opening-day starters, are both on injured reserve, and right tackle Morgan Moses was limited with a foot injury. Christian Barmore, Rhamondre Stevenson, Dre'Mont Jones, Christian Elliss and Craig Woodson were limited as well.

Las Vegas has its own list. Receiver Jalen Nailor is in the concussion protocol and did not practice. Bowers was limited with the knee he has played through for two straight games, and guards Jackson Powers-Johnson and Spencer Burford were both limited. Jeanty (ankle) was a full participant. Receiver Dont'e Thornton Jr. is back at practice as he works his way off injured reserve.

No game statuses have been announced yet. Those come with Friday's final report, and the inactive lists follow about 90 minutes before kickoff. Weather should not matter. The forecast for Foxborough calls for 68 degrees, wind around 11 miles per hour and almost no chance of rain.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that three things pull this game toward Las Vegas and keep it close. The first is that last year's picture of the Raiders is out of date. A new coach and a new quarterback have produced a top-10 scoring offense and a top-two pass rush, and four games of results support a real upgrade, even if two of those games came against weak opponents.

The second is Cousins and the tight-end play-action game against a New England secondary that could be without both starting corners. The third is the Raiders' pass rush against a Patriots interior line that is missing both opening-day guards, in front of a quarterback who has been loose with the ball. We keep that last point small because New England's protection numbers have held up. The Patriots rank 12th in sacks plus hits allowed and were even better than that at Buffalo.

The counterweights favor the home team. Maye at home is the best player on the field. Las Vegas does not run the ball well enough to attack the one clear weakness in New England's defense. And the Raiders are crossing three time zones for a 1 PM Eastern kickoff in their third road game in four weeks. Add it all up and we have New England winning by about a field goal.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast runs in New England's favor: the corners heal. If Gonzalez and Davis both practice by Friday and play, the largest single reason to shade toward Las Vegas is gone, and we would expect the Patriots to win by a little more than a field goal, closer to four or five points.

The other half of the risk is that the Raiders' 3-1 record may be softer than it looks. Two of the three wins came against Miami and New Orleans, the run game ranks 29th, and both starting guards are limited. Meanwhile Maye just played one of his best games of the season in a road win at Buffalo. If the wrong injuries break against New England instead, with the corners out and Hollins and Moses unable to go, this becomes much closer to an even game.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Las Vegas Raiders

Brock Bowers, tight end, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 79 percent, 82 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Michael Mayer, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Cody White, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 11 percent, 21 percent, 62 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Dont'e Thornton Jr., who has not played a snap this season, and he is also on the injury report.

Jackson Powers-Johnson, guard, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 93 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Caleb Rogers, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Spencer Burford, guard, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Bryce Cabeldue, who has seen little action.

Jalen Nailor, wide receiver, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 60 percent, 57 percent, 23 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Malik Benson, who has seen little action.

Folorunso Fatukasi, defensive tackle, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 35 percent, 46 percent, 52 percent.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Dont'e Thornton Jr., Trey Zuhn III.

New England Patriots

Carlton Davis III, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 87 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Channing Canada, who has seen little action, and he is also on the injury report.

Christian Elliss, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 92 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Darius Muasau, who has seen little action.

Christian Gonzalez, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 84 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Charles Woods, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Craig Woodson, safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 66 percent, did not play, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jaylen Reed, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Dre'Mont Jones, defensive end, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 26 percent, did not play, 75 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Gabe Jacas, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Mack Hollins, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 71 percent, 76 percent, 41 percent. Next up on the depth chart: A.J. Brown, who has seen little action, and he is also on the injury report.

Morgan Moses, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 93 percent, 68 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Caleb Lomu, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Rhamondre Stevenson, running back, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 36 percent, 52 percent, 66 percent. Next up on the depth chart: TreVeyon Henderson, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Christian Barmore, defensive tackle, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 51 percent, 45 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Joshua Farmer, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Reggie Gilliam, fullback, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 36 percent, 13 percent, 22 percent.

Charles Woods, cornerback, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 86 percent, 19 percent, 59 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Karon Prunty, who has seen little action, and he is also on the injury report.

Eli Raridon, tight end, on the practice report (ankle): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 20 percent, did not play, 58 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Cameron Latu, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Karon Prunty, A.J. Brown, Channing Canada.

The verdict

We expect New England to win a close game by about a field goal, with Drake Maye and home field outweighing a Raiders team that has clearly improved under Klint Kubiak and Kirk Cousins. The final injury report for Gonzalez, Davis, Hollins and Moses on the New England side, and Nailor, Bowers, Powers-Johnson and Burford for Las Vegas, could still move this game in either direction. This is a forecast, not an official play.