Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction

Detroit should beat Arizona on Sunday by about four points. The Lions are 2-2 and have not won on the road, but the Cardinals just lost left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. for the season, will also be without their starting right guard, and now have to protect Jacoby Brissett against one of the better pass rushes in the league. Detroit's own defense is leaky and banged up, which keeps this from being a bigger number. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How the two teams got here

Detroit is 2-2, and the record is a little kinder than the games were. The Lions beat New Orleans 31-30 and the Jets 31-24, both at home, and lost 41-31 at Buffalo and 32-26 at Carolina. That is two one-score home wins, two road losses and a net of minus 8 points on the season. This is their second straight road game, and this one comes with a trip west.

Arizona is 1-3 in its first year under head coach Mike LaFleur. The Cardinals won 26-14 at the Chargers, lost 31-7 at home to Seattle, lost 36-30 at San Francisco and lost 36-24 at the Giants last week. Two of those losses were closer than the final scores. The San Francisco game was a two-point game until a late touchdown, and the Giants game was a six-point game until an interception was returned for a touchdown on the final play. Both teams are on normal rest.

Detroit's case

The Lions' offense is the best unit in this game. Detroit ranks sixth in the league in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, and fifth in scoring at 29.8 points per game. Jared Goff has St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta and Gibbs all healthy, and his protection ranks 10th in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits allowed. The run game is average, ranking 14th.

Goff threw for 412 yards at Carolina, but that came on 52 attempts while trailing, so we do not read much into it.

The defense is the reason Detroit is 2-2. The Lions rank 29th against the pass by EPA allowed, 32nd in passing yards allowed at 304 per game, 27th against the run and 31st in points allowed at 31.8 per game. The one thing that unit does well is rush the passer with four. Led by McNeill and Wonnum, the pass rush ranks seventh in sacks plus hits, getting home on 26 percent of dropbacks. That matters a great deal this week.

Arizona's case

The Cardinals are at home, and they have a real strength to lean on. Their run defense ranks second in the league in EPA allowed per rush. The offense has been middling, ranking 22nd through the air and 12th on the ground at 21.8 points per game, but Brissett has weapons in McBride, Harrison, Wilson and Love.

Arizona wins when it runs the ball, works play-action off it and takes the ball away. It loses when Brissett is pressured into turnovers, and he threw three interceptions against the Giants. LaFleur was asked after that game about a quarterback change and answered no, so Brissett starts with Carson Beck as the backup.

The weakness is the pass defense. Arizona ranks 31st in EPA allowed per dropback, and its pass rush ranks 20th. That is a hard profile to bring into a game against a top passing offense.

Injuries and lineup news

Both starting quarterbacks are set: Jared Goff for Detroit and Jacoby Brissett for Arizona.

The biggest news is on Arizona's offensive line. Left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. tore his left biceps and went to injured reserve. He had been playing virtually every snap. Starting right guard Isaiah Adams has been ruled out with an ankle injury. The reported plan at left tackle is rookie seventh-round pick Jayden Williams, with Jedrick Wills Jr. also in the picture after signing off Buffalo's practice squad. Wills has not played since 2024. Which of the two actually starts is not confirmed. Jon Gaines II, who played 58 percent of the snaps last week, steps in at right guard.

Arizona is also thin elsewhere. Tight end Hunter Long went to injured reserve, and cornerback Will Johnson is already there with a neck injury. Safety Andrew Wingard has a knee bone bruise and is expected to miss time, though his status is not confirmed because the practice reports we saw did not agree on him. Love was limited in practice with an ankle injury, and LaFleur said it should not affect his availability.

Detroit has its own list. Defensive tackle Tyleik Williams did not practice with a foot injury and was in a walking boot, and Campbell described him as touch-and-go. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (hamstring) is expected to be out, and guard Ben Bartch (foot) did not practice. Brian Branch only just opened his practice window and was limited, along with Mays and Wonnum.

Weather is not a factor. State Farm Stadium has a retractable roof.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that two matchups decide the outcome, and both point toward Detroit. The first is the Lions' pass rush against an Arizona line starting either a rookie seventh-round pick or a newly signed veteran at left tackle and a backup at right guard. Arizona's protection had ranked eighth, but that number was built with Johnson and Adams on the field. Behind the new group stands a quarterback who threw three interceptions a week ago.

The second is Detroit's passing game against Arizona's pass defense, which was already near the bottom of the league and may now be missing a starting safety. Arizona's best unit, its run defense, lines up against the part of Detroit's offense that matters least.

The counterweight is the Lions' defense. It has allowed 41 and 32 points in its two road games, and it may be without a starting defensive tackle and a cornerback. We do not see a coaching, rest or weather edge for either side. Our baseline rating had Detroit about three points better before any of this week's news. Arizona's line and secondary losses push that up, Detroit's own injuries pull some of it back, and we land on the Lions by about four.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is simple: Detroit has not played well enough to be trusted on the road. The Lions are 0-2 away from home, their two wins were by one and by seven, and their pass defense has been among the worst in the league. Arizona has the home field, a run defense that can take away the easy yards, and enough pass catchers to hurt a struggling secondary.

If Tyleik Williams sits and Arizona's makeshift line holds up, we would call this close to an even game. A clean day from Brissett after last week's interceptions would also erase most of the edge we see. The three things we are watching before kickoff are who starts at left tackle for Arizona, whether Wingard plays and whether Williams is active for Detroit.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams, defensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 64 percent, 45 percent, 67 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Levi Onwuzurike, who has seen little action.

Ben Bartch, guard, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, did not play, did not play.

Thomas Harper, safety, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 45 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Avonte Maddox, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

DJ Wonnum, linebacker, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 36 percent, 67 percent, 48 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Trevor Nowaske, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Cade Mays, Brian Branch, Rock Ya-Sin.

Arizona Cardinals

Isaiah Adams, guard, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 42 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jon Gaines II, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Andrew Wingard, safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 4 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Wydett Williams Jr., who has already been playing a starter's share.

Paris Johnson Jr., offensive tackle, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 98 percent.

Jeremiyah Love, running back, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 40 percent, 64 percent, 45 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Tyler Allgeier, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Hunter Long, tight end, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 30 percent, 34 percent, 30 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jameson Geers, who has not played a snap this season.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson.

The verdict

We expect Detroit to win by about four, driven by its pass rush against a patched-together Arizona line and its passing game against a weak Cardinals pass defense. The Lions' road form and their own injured defense are the reasons this is not a larger margin, and the final injury report could still pull it closer. This is a forecast, not an official play.