Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

Pittsburgh should beat Indianapolis on Sunday by about three points. Both teams are 2-2 and neither offense has shown it can pull away from anyone, so we expect a tight, lower scoring game decided by rest, travel and which injured group holds up. The Colts played in London last week and did not take a bye, while the Steelers have had 10 days at home since a Thursday night game. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How both teams got to 2-2

Indianapolis has had an uneven first month under Shane Steichen with Daniel Jones at quarterback. The Colts lost 41-23 at home to Baltimore, lost 33-30 at Kansas City, beat Houston 19-17 at home and then beat Washington 30-13 in London. The Houston win came with the Texans missing Nico Collins, and the London win came against Marcus Mariota playing in place of Jayden Daniels, with Mariota leaving hurt and a rookie finishing the game. That makes the three-point loss at Kansas City the most impressive thing the Colts have done so far.

Pittsburgh is in its first year under Mike McCarthy with Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers beat Atlanta 20-13 at home, lost 20-3 at New England, beat Cincinnati 30-27 at home and lost 27-24 at Cleveland on Thursday, October 1. That is two one-score home wins and two road losses, one of them lopsided. It reads like an average team that plays better in its own building.

Indianapolis' case

The Colts are a running team. By expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, Indianapolis ranks third in the league on the ground. Jonathan Taylor carried 20 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns in London, and he was limited on Wednesday only for rest.

The passing game is the problem. Indianapolis ranks 30th in pass offense, and Jones went 19 of 34 for 143 yards with an interception and a fumble against Washington. Film from the Houston and Washington games showed the Colts losing on the edges in protection and Jones forcing throws under pressure. Pass protection overall ranks 17th. Receiver Alec Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel injury, and Keenan Allen was limited Wednesday with a groin injury after missing Week 4.

The defense has not helped. It ranks 24th against the pass and 28th against the run and has allowed 26.0 points per game. Indianapolis wins when it runs the ball, stays ahead of the chains and gets a clean game from Jones. It loses when it has to throw from behind.

Pittsburgh's case

The Steelers' strength is their defense, and specifically the pass rush. Led by T.J. Watt, it ranks 10th in the league. The pass defense ranks 16th and the run defense 17th, and Pittsburgh has allowed 21.8 points per game.

The offense is below average. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in pass offense and 27th in pass protection, with Rodgers sacked or hit on 26 percent of his dropbacks, and it has scored 19.2 points per game. The run game is the bright spot at eighth. Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns at Cleveland, but he also threw two interceptions in a three-point loss.

Pittsburgh wins when its pass rush forces mistakes and hands the offense a short field. It loses when its own protection breaks down and Rodgers starts forcing throws. Against a Colts quarterback who has turned the ball over under pressure, the first path is a realistic one.

Injuries and lineup news

Both starting quarterbacks are set. Daniel Jones starts for Indianapolis, with Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard behind him. Aaron Rodgers starts for Pittsburgh, with Will Howard and Drew Allar behind him.

For the Colts, starting edge rusher Arden Key is out three to four weeks with a hamstring injury, according to Steichen, and his replacement, Jaylahn Tuimoloau, has been a rotation player. Three more starters did not practice Wednesday: center Tanor Bortolini (ankle), who was in a brace and has played every offensive snap, linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee), who relays the defensive calls, and linebacker Jaylon Carlies (ribs). Bortolini's backup, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, has not played a snap this season. Receiver Ashton Dulin (hamstring), a rotation player, also sat out. Of that group, only Key is confirmed out.

Pittsburgh's secondary is thin. Joey Porter Jr. was traded to Dallas. Cornerback Jamel Dean (ankle) did not practice and is doubtful, with an expected absence of a couple of weeks. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey did not practice with a broken wrist, though he played through it at Cleveland. Safety DeShon Elliott has not returned and has no timeline. Up front, defensive tackle Derrick Harmon went on injured reserve. Receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) and running back Rico Dowdle (toe) were limited. Right guard Spencer Anderson has been playing and practicing through a bone chip he suffered in Week 2.

The forecast for Acrisure Stadium calls for about 59 degrees, a 66 percent chance of rain and wind near 8 mph with gusts up to 26. We treat that as close to neutral, with a slight lean toward both running games. The names to recheck on Friday are Bortolini, Davis-Gaither, Carlies, Ramsey, Dean and Allen.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that three things decide this game. The first is rest and travel, and it clearly favors Pittsburgh. Indianapolis flew back across the Atlantic after playing in London on October 4, skipped the bye that often follows that trip, and now goes on the road again on a normal week. Pittsburgh has had 10 days off and stays home.

The second is the Steelers' pass rush against Jones, with the Colts' center in doubt. Pittsburgh's cornerback group is depleted, but Indianapolis is poorly built to take advantage of it. A team that ranks 30th in pass offense and is missing Pierce is not the one you fear most against backup corners.

The third is the counterweight. The Colts' third-ranked run game gets a Steelers front that just lost Harmon, in weather that favors running, and there is a real chance Pittsburgh starts replacement cornerbacks. That keeps Indianapolis in the game. The Colts' injuries nudge our number toward Pittsburgh and the Steelers' injuries nudge it back by a little more, which is why the travel spot and home field end up carrying the forecast. We did not adjust for recent form, because neither team's results justify it. Neither offense separates, so we land on Pittsburgh by about three.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is the Pittsburgh cornerback room. If Ramsey and Dean both sit, the Steelers could line up Daylen Everette alongside two players signed this week, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Terell Smith. Add Harmon's absence in the middle of the line, and Jonathan Taylor could control the game in wet, gusty conditions that suit a run-first road team.

Pittsburgh's offense is also not good enough to pull away from anyone. The pass offense and the protection both rank near the bottom of the league, and Rodgers was intercepted twice at Cleveland. If Bortolini, Davis-Gaither and Carlies all play for Indianapolis and Ramsey does not play for Pittsburgh, we would view this game as close to a coin flip.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Indianapolis Colts

Arden Key, defensive end, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 66 percent, 81 percent, 41 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jaylahn Tuimoloau, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Akeem Davis-Gaither, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 94 percent, 100 percent, 97 percent. Next up on the depth chart: CJ Allen, who has seen little action.

Jaylon Carlies, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 62 percent, 69 percent, 47 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Tahj Chambers, who has seen little action.

Keenan Allen, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 51 percent, 73 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Deion Burks, who has seen little action.

Tanor Bortolini, center, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, who has seen little action.

Alec Pierce, wide receiver, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 26 percent, did not play, did not play.

Ashton Dulin, wide receiver, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, 35 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Anthony Gould, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Will Mallory.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Jamel Dean, cornerback, doubtful: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 85 percent, 82 percent, 25 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Daylen Everette, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Jalen Ramsey, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 98 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Brandin Echols, who has seen little action.

Michael Pittman Jr., wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 73 percent, 72 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ben Skowronek, who has seen little action.

Derrick Harmon, defensive tackle, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 58 percent, 42 percent, 8 percent.

Rico Dowdle, running back, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 26 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Travis Homer, who has seen little action.

The verdict

We expect Pittsburgh to win a close game by about three points, driven by a large rest and travel edge and a pass rush that can pressure a turnover-prone Colts passing game. Friday's practice report for Bortolini, Davis-Gaither, Carlies, Ramsey and Dean could still move this toward an even matchup. This is a forecast, not an official play.