Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints Prediction

Minnesota should beat New Orleans on Sunday by about five points. The Vikings are 4-0 because of a defense that leads the league against the pass and in getting to the quarterback, and the Saints are 1-3 with the league's worst scoring defense and a quarterback who was hit 12 times on Monday night. The reason we do not expect a blowout is Minnesota's offense, which is hurt along the line and at receiver and did not score a touchdown last week. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How the two teams got here

Minnesota is unbeaten, but the scores tell a more modest story than the record. The Vikings beat Green Bay 39-22 at home, won 9-3 at Chicago with Carson Wentz starting in place of a concussed Kyler Murray, won 23-16 at Tampa Bay in a game where Mayfield dislocated his thumb, and beat Miami 15-10 at home on five field goals. That is one comfortable win and three one-score wins.

New Orleans is 1-3 in its season under head coach Kellen Moore. The Saints lost 31-30 at Detroit and won 24-17 at Baltimore, two respectable road games. Then they came home and lost 35-27 to Las Vegas and 45-24 to Atlanta on Monday night, giving up 80 points in those two games. They now play again at home on a short week, while Minnesota travels on normal rest.

Minnesota's case

The Vikings win with defense. They allow 12.8 points per game, the fewest in the league. By expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, they rank first against the pass and fifth against the run. Their pass rush, built on Brian Flores' pressure scheme, gets a sack or a quarterback hit on 35 percent of dropbacks, which also ranks first.

The offense is a different story. Minnesota ranks 24th in passing EPA, 21st in rushing EPA and 28th in pass protection. Aaron Jones has been carrying the load at about 23 touches a game, Hockenson caught 13 passes last week, and kicker Reichard is 12 for 12 on field goals. The Vikings' formula has been to squeeze the other quarterback and take the points. It gets them into trouble if the line cannot protect Murray and the game demands touchdowns.

New Orleans' case

The Saints can score. They average 26.2 points per game, 10th in the league, with Olave, Vele and tight end Juwan Johnson all producing for quarterback Tyler Shough. Some of Monday's points came late in a game that was already decided, but this offense also put up 30 at Detroit and won at Baltimore.

The defense is the problem. New Orleans allows 32.0 points per game, the most in the league, and ranks 32nd against the run and 27th against the pass by EPA, with a pass rush that ranks 19th. Protection has also slipped. The Saints rank 18th in keeping their quarterback clean and have been without left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. since Week 2, with Asim Richards filling in. New Orleans wins when Shough gets time and the game turns into a scoring contest. It loses when its front cannot stop the run or protect.

Injuries and lineup news

Both regular quarterbacks are expected to start. Murray has no injury designation and has started the last two games, with Max Brosmer behind him. Shough was limited on Wednesday with an injury to his left, non-throwing hand that is reported as not putting his status in jeopardy. Spencer Rattler is his backup.

Minnesota's offensive line is banged up. Left guard Donovan Jackson is on injured reserve for the season with a meniscus injury. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw is in the concussion protocol and did not practice Wednesday, and right tackle Brian O'Neill (knee) was limited. Receiver Jordan Addison (hamstring) did not practice, and Justin Jefferson (ankle) was limited in his first practice since September 27.

The Saints held a walkthrough on Wednesday, so their report is an estimate. Linebacker Kaden Elliss (calf), an every-snap starter, and edge rusher Anfernee Jennings (knee) were listed as not practicing after both missed Monday's game. Running back Alvin Kamara (back) also did not practice, and with Travis Etienne on injured reserve the carries would fall to Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson. Receiver Jordyn Tyson is on injured reserve as well. Granderson (ankle) was limited.

One item is unconfirmed. A feed entry this week said Banks had been cleared to return from injured reserve, but he was not on Wednesday's practice report and we could not find a source confirming it, so this forecast treats him as out. The game is indoors, so weather is not a factor.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that two matchups favor Minnesota. The first is the Vikings' league-best pass rush and coverage against a Saints line that is missing its left tackle and a quarterback who just took 12 hits and has a wrapped hand. That is the worst possible opponent for New Orleans to see on a short week.

The second is the Saints' last-ranked run defense, which may again be without Elliss at linebacker, against a Vikings offense that wants to lean on Aaron Jones. If Minnesota can run, it does not need its passing game to be sharp.

The counterweight is Minnesota's own offense. A line down one starter for the year and possibly missing its left tackle, plus two receivers who are less than healthy, limits how far the Vikings can pull away. That is why three of their four wins have been close. Neither coaching nor weather separates the teams. Add it up and we land on Minnesota by about five, which is within half a point of where our baseline team ratings start with these two quarterbacks.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is that Minnesota cannot score enough to put the game away. Its last three wins came by six, seven and five points against Chicago, a Tampa Bay team that lost its quarterback during the game, and Miami. Last week the offense managed five field goals and no touchdown.

If Darrisaw and Addison sit and Jefferson is limited, a Saints offense that scores 26.2 points per game, lost by one at Detroit and won at Baltimore can keep this a one-score game at home and steal it late. Shough's hand and Kamara's back are the factors that cut the other way. The names to watch on Friday's report are Darrisaw, Addison, Jefferson, Shough, Kamara and Elliss.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Minnesota Vikings

Brian O'Neill, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Caleb Tiernan, who has seen little action.

Christian Darrisaw, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 54 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ryan Van Demark, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Jordan Addison, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 88 percent, 98 percent, 96 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Myles Price, who has seen little action.

Donovan Jackson, guard, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 9 percent.

Justin Jefferson, wide receiver, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 12 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Tai Felton, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Josh Oliver, tight end, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 60 percent, 41 percent, did not play.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Michael Jurgens, Ben Yurosek, Charles Demmings.

New Orleans Saints

Julian Blackmon, safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jonas Sanker, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Kaden Elliss, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Isaiah Stalbird, who has seen little action.

Tyler Shough, quarterback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Spencer Rattler, who has not played a snap this season.

Alvin Kamara, running back, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 29 percent, 32 percent, 38 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kendre Miller, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Carl Granderson, defensive end, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 67 percent, 51 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Anfernee Jennings, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Anfernee Jennings, linebacker, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 29 percent, 26 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Chris Rumph II, who has seen little action.

Noah Fant, tight end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 44 percent, 57 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Oscar Delp, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Jaylan Ford, Lorenzo Styles Jr., Mike Reid, Barion Brown, Jordyn Tyson.

The verdict

We expect Minnesota to win by about five, driven by its pass rush against a shorthanded Saints line and by a New Orleans run defense that ranks last in the league. The Vikings' own injuries on offense are what keep this from being a bigger number, and the late-week reports on Darrisaw, Addison and Jefferson could tighten it further. This is a forecast, not an official play.