Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

Jacksonville should beat Philadelphia in London on Sunday by about four points. The Jaguars are 3-1 with one of the league's most efficient offenses, while the 2-2 Eagles have lost three of their five opening offensive line starters in three weeks and will play without running back Saquon Barkley. The game is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, so we treat it as a neutral site and give Jacksonville no home-field credit. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How both teams got here

Philadelphia is 2-2 and trending the wrong way. The Eagles beat Washington 24-22 at home and won 24-20 at Tennessee, then lost 27-7 at Chicago and 24-20 at home to the Rams after leading 20-10 at halftime. Both wins were one-score games, and the Eagles have been outscored by 18 points on the season.

Jacksonville is 3-1. The Jaguars beat Cleveland 34-10, lost 20-13 at Denver, routed New England 35-6 and won 22-17 at Cincinnati last week. They have outscored opponents by 51 points, though the two blowouts came against weaker teams and the Cincinnati win was closer than the record suggests.

Philadelphia's case

The Eagles still have real talent on defense. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter anchors the front, and the secondary of Mitchell, DeJean, Woolen and Mukuba is the group most likely to keep the score down. On offense, Jalen Hurts can still finish drives with his legs and the quarterback sneak. That is how Philadelphia wins this game: a low score, a few stops and Hurts closing out short fields.

The numbers so far are not friendly. By expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, the Eagles rank 25th passing and 20th rushing, and they are scoring 18.8 points per game, which ranks 26th. Hurts completed 12 of 27 passes for 93 yards against the Rams. The defense, a top-seven unit in 2025, ranks 23rd against the pass and 29th against the run by EPA, and it is last in the league in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits at 11 percent.

Philadelphia loses when it cannot protect or run. Film from the Chicago loss showed a four-man rush beating the line and Hurts forcing two interceptions.

Jacksonville's case

The Jaguars have been balanced and efficient. They rank fourth in the league passing and fifth rushing by EPA and are scoring 26.0 points per game. Trevor Lawrence completed 18 of 23 passes at 9.9 yards per attempt at Cincinnati. The formula is to stay on schedule on early downs and take the ball away on defense.

The defense is strongest up front. Jacksonville ranks eighth against the run by EPA and second in rushing yards allowed, and its pass rush ranks 13th. The Jaguars are allowing only 13.2 points per game.

There are soft spots. Jacksonville's pass protection ranks 29th, allowing a sack or hit on 26 percent of dropbacks, and Lawrence was sacked four times at Cincinnati. The pass defense gives up 280 yards per game, which ranks 31st. The loss in Denver came when a good pass rush stalled the Jaguars' dropback game.

Injuries and lineup news

Both starting quarterbacks are set. Jalen Hurts starts for Philadelphia and Trevor Lawrence starts for Jacksonville, and neither carries an injury designation.

The Eagles' offensive line is the biggest story in this game. Right tackle Lane Johnson announced his retirement on October 6. Cam Jurgens, who had played every snap in each of the last three games, was traded to Baltimore this week. Left guard Landon Dickerson is on injured reserve. Center Drew Kendall (knee) did not practice Wednesday, and rookie Markel Bell has one career start. Willie Lampkin has been reported as the new starting left guard, but that is not confirmed, and it is also unconfirmed whether Bell stays at right tackle.

The skill positions are thin too. Barkley (hamstring) has been ruled out and Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve, which leaves Will Shipley and Dameon Pierce, who was promoted from the practice squad. Receiver DeVonta Smith (hamstring) has not practiced since Week 3, and Hollywood Brown also sat out Wednesday. Linebacker J. Campbell, a starter, did not practice. Goedert, Baun, Mitchell and Fred Johnson were limited.

Jacksonville's concerns are in the secondary. Safety Eric Murray is in the concussion protocol and did not practice. Safety Caleb Ransaw and cornerback Christian Braswell went to injured reserve, and cornerbacks Montaric Brown, Jourdan Lewis and Jarrian Jones were all limited Wednesday. Left tackle Harrison and defensive end Hines-Allen were limited as well, while Meyers and Allen practiced in full.

These are Wednesday reports, so the picture can change by Friday. We have not confirmed a London weather forecast.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that three things decide this game. The first is Jacksonville's front and top-eight run defense against a Philadelphia line that could start as few as two of its opening five, with no Barkley to lean on. The Eagles' protection already ranked 22nd, allowing a sack or hit on 24 percent of dropbacks, before the latest losses.

The second is Jacksonville's offense against an Eagles defense that ranks 29th against the run and generates the least pressure in the league. That lack of pressure helps hide the Jaguars' own leaky protection.

The third is the trip. London takes away Jacksonville's home-field edge, which is why our number is smaller than a normal home game would produce. But the Eagles fly overnight Friday for an early Sunday kickoff after a week of line reshuffling, and the Jaguars play in London every season.

There are counterweights. Jacksonville's thin secondary is a real weakness, although Philadelphia's passing game with backup receivers is not well built to punish it. And the Jaguars' scoring defense leans on takeaways, including two Joe Burrow interceptions in a game where he threw for 428 yards. Takeaways tend to even out over time, so we expect some of that to swing back. Add it all up and we have Jacksonville by about four.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is that Philadelphia's injury list looks much better by Sunday. Goedert, Baun, Mitchell and Fred Johnson were all limited Wednesday, which leaves the door open for each of them. If DeVonta Smith also returns, Hurts would be throwing against a Jacksonville secondary that is missing a safety and possibly three cornerbacks.

The other worry is Jacksonville's protection. With both tackles limited in practice, Jalen Carter and the Eagles' front can keep this a one-score game even though Philadelphia's pass rush ranks last so far. Smith, Kendall, Campbell, Mitchell, Murray, Harrison and Hines-Allen are the names to recheck on Friday.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 88 percent, 100 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Hollywood Brown, who has not played a snap this season, and he is also on the injury report.

Drew Kendall, center, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent.

Jihaad Campbell, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 89 percent, 97 percent, 94 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jeremiah Trotter Jr., who has already been playing a starter's share.

Quinyon Mitchell, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 43 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kelee Ringo, who has seen little action.

Zack Baun, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 92 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Smael Mondon Jr., who has seen little action.

Dallas Goedert, tight end, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 25 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Johnny Mundt, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Jonathan Greenard, linebacker, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 25 percent, 23 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jalyx Hunt, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Marcus Epps, safety, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 74 percent, 38 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Michael Carter II, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Saquon Barkley, running back, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 16 percent, 72 percent, 7 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Will Shipley, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Tank Bigsby, running back, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 34 percent, 4 percent, 48 percent.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Hollywood Brown, Fred Johnson.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Anton Harrison, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Walker Little, who has seen little action.

Cole Van Lanen, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 95 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Walker Little, who has seen little action.

Josh Hines-Allen, defensive end, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 85 percent, 60 percent, 84 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Bryan Thomas Jr., who has seen little action.

Jourdan Lewis, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 52 percent, 63 percent, 92 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jarrian Jones, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Montaric Brown, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 79 percent, 48 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jarrian Jones, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

DaVon Hamilton, defensive tackle, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 60 percent, 43 percent, 41 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Albert Regis, who has seen little action.

Jarrian Jones, cornerback, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 63 percent, 73 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Alijah Huzzie, who has not played a snap this season.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Christian Braswell, Caleb Ransaw.

The verdict

We expect Jacksonville to win by about four in London, driven by the Jaguars' front against a depleted Eagles offensive line and a Philadelphia offense missing Barkley. A healthier Eagles injury report on Friday, especially at receiver, would pull this closer to even. This is a forecast, not an official play.