New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Prediction

Washington should beat the Giants on Sunday by about two points. The Commanders are 1-3 and the Giants are 3-1, but the records hide a lot. Washington gets its starting quarterback, Jayden Daniels, back from a dislocated left elbow, while New York is on its second quarterback, Jameis Winston, and has lost its best pass rusher for the season. Two real concerns on the Washington side keep this close: Daniels has not played since Week 2, and his top two receivers both missed practice Wednesday. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How the Giants got to 3-1 and Washington to 1-3

The Giants are in their first year under head coach John Harbaugh, and the record looks better than the play behind it. New York beat Dallas 28-20 at home in Week 1 with Jaxson Dart at quarterback, then lost 28-6 at the Rams in a game where Dart was hurt on the first drive. With Winston starting, the Giants beat Tennessee 12-7 at home in heavy wind and then beat Arizona 36-24 at home. That is three home wins and one road loss by 22 points.

Washington has had a harder road. The Commanders lost 24-22 at Philadelphia with Daniels, lost 37-20 at Dallas when Daniels was hurt and Marcus Mariota finished, beat Seattle 33-31 at home with Mariota, and lost 30-13 to Indianapolis in London after Mariota was hurt and a rookie quarterback played most of the game. The only full game Daniels has played this season was a two-point road loss, and two of the three losses came with backups under center.

The Giants' case

New York has won with defense. The Giants rank 8th in points allowed and 12th against the pass by expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score. Cornerbacks Banks and Newsome are healthy, and Banks returned an interception for a touchdown in Week 4.

The offense has been ordinary. The Giants rank 18th in EPA per dropback, 22nd in EPA per rush and 21st in scoring at 20.5 points per game. Their pass protection ranks 31st, allowing a sack or quarterback hit on 29 percent of dropbacks. What they do have is a big-play threat: Winston throwing deep to Malik Nabers. Winston threw three touchdowns and two interceptions last week, which is a fair picture of how wide his range of outcomes is.

The win over Arizona also needed help. The offense was successful on only 32 percent of its plays, and the Giants leaned on that pick-six and three Arizona interceptions. Against Tennessee they did not score a touchdown in the red zone. The Giants win with defense, turnovers and deep shots. They lose when the line cannot protect and Winston gives the ball away.

Washington's case

The case for the Commanders starts with Daniels. He practiced fully on Wednesday, head coach Dan Quinn said he is taking all the first-team reps and will start, and he will wear a brace on his left elbow, which is his non-throwing arm. Washington's pass offense ranks 17th, its run offense 24th and its pass protection 13th, and those numbers include more than two games of backup quarterbacks.

The run defense has been a strength, ranking 6th in rushing yards allowed. That matters against a Giants offense that would rather not put the whole game on its pass protection.

The weakness is the rest of the defense. Washington has allowed 30.5 points per game, which ranks 30th, including 37 to Dallas and 30 to Indianapolis, and it ranks 22nd against the pass by EPA allowed. Even the win over Seattle came with three Seattle turnovers and an offense that succeeded on only 32 percent of its plays. The Commanders win when Daniels is right and the run defense forces the opponent to throw. They lose when the secondary gives up points in bunches.

Injuries and lineup news

Winston starts for the Giants. Dart is on injured reserve after knee surgery and is out for the regular season. J.J. McCarthy, acquired from Minnesota, was the third quarterback in Week 4, and Harbaugh said he may be the backup on Sunday. For Washington, Daniels starts and Mariota (sprained MCL) is doubtful.

The biggest Giants loss is edge rusher Brian Burns, who tore his ACL and meniscus in Week 3 and is on injured reserve for the rest of the season. Defensive lineman Chauncey Golston (neck) is listed as out. On Wednesday, left tackle Andrew Thomas (groin), Nabers (knee), safety Pinnock (concussion) and running back Najee Harris (personal) did not practice, while Likely, Manhertz and Cam Skattebo were limited. Thomas has played every offensive snap this season, and his backup, J.C. Davis, has not played one.

Washington receivers Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs both sat out Wednesday with hamstring injuries. Butler, Omenihu and Owens also did not practice, and the limited list was long: Luvu, Styles, Cosmi, Okonkwo, Sinnott, Croskey-Merritt and White. Friday's game designations for Thomas, Nabers, McLaurin, Diggs and Daniels are the ones to watch.

Weather could matter. The forecast for Northwest Stadium at kickoff is about 63 degrees with a 62 percent chance of rain, wind around 9 mph and gusts near 25.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that three things decide this game, and two of them favor Washington. The first is quarterback. The Commanders get their starter back, while the Giants start their second quarterback on the road, where their only game this season was the 22-point loss to the Rams.

The second is the line of scrimmage. The Giants' pass rush already ranked 31st in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits, at 12 percent, and now it is without Burns and Golston. Only one game without Burns is in the numbers so far. A returning Daniels should have time to throw. On the other side, a Giants line that ranks 31st in protection could be without Thomas against an average Washington rush.

The third pulls the other way. Daniels has been out three weeks, both of his top receivers are uncertain, and Washington is coming back from London without a bye and with a long practice report. We also think the Giants' record flatters them, since all three wins came at home and two of them leaned on turnovers or a low-scoring wind game. Washington's poor scoring defense is the reason we expect a tight game instead of a comfortable one. Add it up and we have Washington by about two.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is Daniels' first game back. If the elbow limits him, or if McLaurin and Diggs cannot play, Washington's offense loses most of the edge we are counting on. If Andrew Thomas also plays for New York, the protection problem gets smaller and Winston's deep passing to a healthy Nabers can win this game outright against a defense that has given up 30.5 points per game.

Winston is the other wild card. He can swing a game in either direction, as last week's three touchdowns and two interceptions showed. Rain and gusty wind add one more layer of uncertainty to a game we already expect to be close.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

New York Giants

Andrew Thomas, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: J.C. Davis, who has not played a snap this season.

Cam Skattebo, running back, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 59 percent, 77 percent, 64 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Najee Harris, who has seen little action.

Isaiah Likely, tight end, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 69 percent, 84 percent, 66 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Theo Johnson, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Malik Nabers, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 74 percent, 78 percent, 76 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Charlie Jones, who has seen little action.

Chauncey Golston, defensive end, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 63 percent, 58 percent, 38 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Darius Alexander, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Chris Manhertz, tight end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 31 percent, 44 percent, 52 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Thomas Fidone II, who has not played a snap this season.

Jason Pinnock, safety, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 75 percent, 26 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Elijah Campbell, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Braxton Berrios.

Washington Commanders

Frankie Luvu, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, 95 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kain Medrano, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Jeremy Reaves, safety, on the practice report (finger): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 91 percent, 94 percent, 80 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Percy Butler, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Nick Cross, safety, on the practice report (illness): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Tyler Owens, who has seen little action.

Sonny Styles, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 74 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Leo Chenal, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Stefon Diggs, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 51 percent, 59 percent, 66 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Dyami Brown, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Terry McLaurin, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 70 percent, 75 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Treylon Burks, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Chig Okonkwo, tight end, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, 58 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ben Sinnott, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, running back, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 37 percent, 57 percent, 45 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Rachaad White, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Jayden Daniels, quarterback, on the practice report (left elbow): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 55 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Marcus Mariota, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Nick Allegretti, guard, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 0 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Matt Gulbin, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Sam Cosmi, guard, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 96 percent, did not play, did not play.

Marcus Mariota, quarterback, doubtful: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 45 percent, 100 percent, 16 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Athan Kaliakmanis, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Ben Sinnott, tight end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 68 percent, 49 percent, 38 percent. Next up on the depth chart: John Bates, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Percy Butler, safety, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 0 percent, 19 percent, 29 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Quan Martin, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Rachaad White, running back, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 52 percent, 43 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Kaytron Allen, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Jeremy McNichols, Deatrich Wise Jr., Trey Amos, Jaylin Lane.

The verdict

We expect Washington to win a close game by about two, driven by Daniels' return and a Giants pass rush that is missing Brian Burns. The health of McLaurin, Diggs and Daniels on one side and Thomas and Nabers on the other could still move this toward an even matchup, so Friday's injury report matters. This is a forecast, not an official play.