Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

Cincinnati should beat Miami on Sunday by about four points. Joe Burrow gets a Dolphins pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league, and Miami's offense has yet to score more than 13 points in a game. The reason this is not a bigger number is health: Ja'Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins did not practice on Wednesday, and the game kicks off in South Florida heat. This is a forecast, not an official play.

How both teams got here

Cincinnati is 2-2 and has looked like an average team by margin. The Bengals beat Tampa Bay 33-27 at home, won 20-6 at Houston, lost 30-27 at Pittsburgh and lost 22-17 at home to Jacksonville. That is one comfortable road win and two losses by one score, and they have outscored opponents by 12 points over four games.

Miami is 0-4 under first-year head coach Jeff Hafley. The Dolphins lost 27-13 at Las Vegas, 35-13 at San Francisco, 24-10 at home to Kansas City and 15-10 at Minnesota, a game the Vikings played without Justin Jefferson. The average loss has been by nearly 14 points. Three of those four games were on the road, so Sunday is only Miami's second home game. Both teams come in on normal rest.

Cincinnati's case

The biggest change in Cincinnati from last season is the defense. By expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play helps an offense score, the Bengals rank 10th against the pass and 13th against the run, and they are allowing 21.2 points per game. The pass rush ranks sixth in the rate of sacks plus quarterback hits, and defensive tackle B.J. Hill was a full practice participant on Wednesday for the first time since Week 1.

The offense has been closer to the middle of the pack. Cincinnati ranks 14th in EPA per dropback and 18th running the ball. Burrow threw for 428 yards on 54 attempts against Jacksonville, but much of that came while trailing, and he threw two interceptions, one of them inside the 10-yard line. We did not treat that yardage as a reason to raise our number.

Protection remains the weak spot. The Bengals rank 23rd in sacks plus hits allowed, and the interior of the line gave way at key moments in both losses, including a strip sack at Pittsburgh. Cincinnati wins when Burrow throws on schedule and the front gets home. It loses when the pocket collapses late and the ball comes out.

Miami's case

The Dolphins have one real strength, and it is stopping the run. Miami ranks sixth in EPA allowed per rush. The path to a win is keeping the score in the teens, leaning on that run defense and getting a short field or two.

The rest of the picture is rough. Miami is last in the league in scoring at 11.5 points per game, with a pass offense that ranks 26th and a run offense that ranks 27th. Quarterback Malik Willis completed 9 of 17 passes for 85 yards and lost a fumble at Minnesota, and he has taken sacks by holding the ball too long. De'Von Achane is on injured reserve for the season with a torn ACL suffered in Week 3. Ollie Gordon II stepped in with 100 yards on nine carries last week, though most of that came on one long touchdown run.

The pass defense ranks 30th by EPA allowed, and the pass rush ranks 24th. Miami's zone linebackers have also lost tight ends on crossing routes and seams in recent weeks. The Dolphins have struggled whenever an opponent has been able to throw.

Injuries and lineup news

Both regular quarterbacks are starting. Joe Burrow carries no injury designation for Cincinnati, and Malik Willis starts for Miami with Brady Cook as his backup.

The Bengals' receiver room is the story of the week. Ja'Marr Chase left the Week 4 game and is in the concussion protocol, which means he has to get through a full practice before he can be cleared. Tee Higgins did not practice on Wednesday with a groin strain and a newly listed neck injury. If either sits, the next receivers up are Dohnte Meyers, Mitchell Tinsley and Andrei Iosivas. Safeties Bryan Cook (ankle) and Kyle Dugger (quad) also did not practice. Barrett Carter (ankle) and Dexter Lawrence II (wrist, a new listing) were limited.

Miami has its own problems beyond Achane. Leading receiver Caleb Douglas (ankle) did not practice. Starting right tackle Austin Jackson (knee) was limited, as were receiver Chris Bell, cornerback JuJu Brents and safety Dante Trader Jr. Kenneth Grant has been designated to return from injured reserve and was limited as well.

These are Wednesday reports, the first of the week, so every status here can still change. The forecast for Hard Rock Stadium calls for about 91 degrees, wind around 12 mph and little chance of rain.

How the matchup sets up

Our interpretation is that the passing game decides this one. Burrow against the 30th-ranked pass defense is the largest mismatch on the field. Miami's trouble covering tight ends also suits tight end Gesicki, which matters even more if the Bengals are short at receiver. On the other side, Willis faces the 10th-ranked pass defense, likely without his leading receiver, and the Dolphins have shown no way to score past 13.

The line of scrimmage also leans toward Cincinnati. The Bengals' sixth-ranked pass rush faces a limited right tackle and a quarterback who holds the ball. Miami's 24th-ranked rush is the kindest front that Cincinnati's shaky protection has seen this season.

Two things pull the number back toward Miami. The first is availability, since both of Cincinnati's starting receivers and two of its safeties are in doubt. The second is the heat, which is a small edge for the home team in early October and matters a little more if the Bengals are rotating depth receivers. Miami's poor results count against the Dolphins here, but Cincinnati's own results are those of an average team, so we are not giving the Bengals extra credit for form. Add it up and we have Cincinnati by about four.

The key risk

The biggest threat to this forecast is Chase and Higgins both sitting. Without either starting receiver, the Bengals' passing edge shrinks to Gesicki, checkdowns to Chase Brown and depth receivers working in 91-degree heat. Miami's run defense could then sit on a Cincinnati ground game that ranks 18th.

The other worry is how the Bengals have finished games. They have lost two straight one-score games with late turnovers, the strip sack at Pittsburgh and two Burrow interceptions against Jacksonville. Gordon's 100-yard day also showed Miami can still break a long run. If Chase clears the protocol and Higgins returns to practice by Friday, our lean toward Cincinnati gets a bit stronger. If both are ruled out, we would expect a closer game, with the Bengals ahead by about two.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 7 at 9:27 PM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Cincinnati Bengals

Barrett Carter, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Joe Giles-Harris, who has seen little action.

Bryan Cook, safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 34 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: PJ Jules, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Dalton Risner, guard, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jacob Bayer, who has seen little action.

Dexter Lawrence II, defensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 64 percent, 79 percent, 77 percent. Next up on the depth chart: T.J. Slaton Jr., who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Ja'Marr Chase, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 88 percent, 100 percent, 20 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Dohnte Meyers, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Jordan Battle, safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kyle Dugger, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Tee Higgins, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 72 percent, 93 percent, 79 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Mitchell Tinsley, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Colbie Young, wide receiver, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 17 percent, 2 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Andrei Iosivas, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Kyle Dugger, safety, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 0 percent, 66 percent, did not play.

Jalen Davis, cornerback, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 74 percent, 31 percent, did not play.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: B.J. Hill, Swayze Bozeman.

Miami Dolphins

Austin Jackson, offensive tackle, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Caedan Wallace, who has seen little action.

Caleb Douglas, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 86 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jalen Tolbert, who has seen little action.

Chris Bell, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 41 percent, 71 percent, 82 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ryan Miller, who has seen little action.

JuJu Brents, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 62 percent, 69 percent, 88 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Marcellas Dial Jr., who has seen little action.

Dante Trader Jr., safety, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 77 percent, 100 percent, 67 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kyle Louis, who has seen little action.

Robert Beal Jr., defensive end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 38 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Andre Jones Jr., who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Kenneth Grant, Reese Taylor, Jackson Woodard, Storm Duck.

The verdict

We expect Cincinnati to win by about four points, driven by Burrow against a struggling Miami pass defense and a Bengals pass rush facing a banged-up Dolphins offense. The practice reports for Chase and Higgins later this week are the main thing to watch, and both sitting would make this a closer game. This is a forecast, not an official play.