Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction

Update, October 1 at 7:53 PM ET: Pick change at 7:52 p.m. Eastern: our moneyline pick is now Cleveland at plus 145 (BetOnline), replacing Pittsburgh at minus 148. Cleveland plus 2.5 stands. The forecast is unchanged, Pittsburgh by about half a point, a coin flip, and at plus 145 the Browns price is the value.

Update, October 1 at 6:11 PM ET: Trip Nick has entered picks for this game: Cleveland plus 2.5 at even money and Pittsburgh on the moneyline at minus 148, both owner-approved manual picks at DraftKings. The forecast itself is unchanged.

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football on October 1, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. Eastern at Huntington Bank Field. Both teams are 2 and 1 and both are coming off Sunday games, so each side gets only three days to recover and prepare. Our forecast has Pittsburgh winning by about a point, which is as close to an even game as a forecast gets. With the market making Pittsburgh a 2.5 point favorite, the side of the number we like is Cleveland plus 2.5. Our picks for this game are Cleveland plus 2.5 against the spread and Cleveland on the moneyline at plus 145, entered as owner-approved manual picks after the forecast was made. The moneyline was switched from Pittsburgh to Cleveland at 7:52 p.m. Eastern.

Pittsburgh's case

Pittsburgh's defense is the best unit on the field. T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward lead a pass rush that sacks or hits the quarterback on about 27 percent of dropbacks, fifth in the league, without needing to blitz. The offense runs through two tight end sets, Jaylen Warren's running and Aaron Rodgers' play action shots, and it was at its best last week in a 30 to 27 win over Cincinnati that ended on a strip sack of Joe Burrow. Rico Dowdle is out again, so Warren carries the backfield.

Cleveland's case

Cleveland's strength is also up front on defense. Mason Graham has a sack in every game, Jared Verse adds pressure off the edge, and the Browns pressured Carolina on about half its dropbacks last week while blitzing on fewer than three in ten snaps. Deshaun Watson starts at quarterback and runs a short, careful passing game built around tight end Harold Fannin and his own legs. Cleveland has won two straight, both on touchdowns in the final four minutes and both without a turnover. Cornerback Tyson Campbell returns after missing last week.

Injuries and lineup changes

Cleveland is missing two interior linemen. Starting center Elgton Jenkins is out with a concussion, so Luke Wypler starts at center, and rookie Austin Barber starts at right guard with Teven Jenkins out for a fourth straight game. That is a lot of change in the middle of the line on a short week. Pittsburgh traded cornerback Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas on Wednesday night, although he had not played this season. Slot cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a broken wrist after limited practices all week, and defensive lineman Yahya Black is questionable for a personal matter. Official inactives are posted about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Why the forecast is so close

Both records flatter their teams. Pittsburgh is 2 and 1 but has been outplayed on a per play basis across its three games, including a 20 to 3 loss at New England. Cleveland lost its opener badly in Jacksonville but has played roughly even football per play since. Each pass rush is better than the offensive line it faces, which points toward a game decided by sacks and turnovers rather than sustained drives. That is why the forecast lands near even, with Pittsburgh a slight favorite on the road.

Key risk

The risk runs both ways. If Watt and Heyward beat Cleveland's patched interior early and force a turnover, this can look like the Browns' Week 1 loss in Jacksonville. If Graham and Verse win against Pittsburgh's rookie right tackle Max Iheanachor, Rodgers can stall the way he did at New England. Either early swing matters more than usual in a game expected to be this close.

The verdict

Our forecast has Pittsburgh winning by about half a point, which is a coin flip. Our picks are on Cleveland: Cleveland plus 2.5 at even money, which wins if the Browns win or lose by two or fewer, and Cleveland on the moneyline at plus 145, which wins if the Browns win outright. At plus 145 a near even game pays almost one and a half to one, and that price is the reason for the moneyline. The spread pick was entered at DraftKings at 6:07 p.m. Eastern. The moneyline was switched from Pittsburgh at minus 148 to Cleveland at plus 145 at BetOnline at 7:52 p.m. Eastern, before kickoff. Inactives held no surprises: Rodgers and Watson start, Ramsey is active, and Cleveland is without both Jenkinses on the interior line.