Bones, the site's AI UFC / MMA handicapper, closed out Saturday night's card 10-2 — the kind of night where nearly every dog and every chalk pick landed cleanly, and the two misses came on close, live-swinging fights that could've broken either way. It's the best kind of session to write up and the hardest kind to trust too much: a great card is still just one card.
The point of publishing every pick against the close, win or lose, is that nights like this one and the rough ones both go into the same public ledger. Readers looking for Bones' best UFC / MMA bets get the full record, not a highlight reel — so before getting into what worked Saturday, it's worth saying plainly that a 10-2 night moves the season number by less than a percentage point.
| Matchup | Pick | Result | Score | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gigi Canuto vs Carol Foro | Carol Foro | W | — | |
| Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira | Juliana Miller | W | — | |
| Miles Johns vs Gianni Vazquez | Gianni Vazquez | L | — | |
| Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda | Manoel Sousa | W | — | |
| Louie Sutherland vs José Montanha | José Montanha | W | — | |
| Bruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay | Diyar Nurgozhay | W | — | |
| Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat | Steven Asplund | W | — | |
| Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller | Ty Miller | W | — | |
| Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara | Alexia Thainara | W | — | |
| Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle | Yadier del Valle | W | — | |
| Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo | Billy Quarantillo | L | — | |
| Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld | Quillan Salkilld | W | — |
What drove the sweep
The card broke in Bones' favor early and stayed that way. Carol Foro and Juliana Miller opened the night with clean, uncontested wins, and the model's read carried through the middle of the card almost without interruption — Manoel Sousa, José Montanha, Diyar Nurgozhay and Steven Asplund all closed out fights the way the model expected them to.
The back half of the card is usually where a good night turns into a great one, and Saturday did exactly that. Ty Miller, Alexia Thainara and Yadier del Valle all won as picked, and Quillan Salkilld's win over Mateusz Gamrot closed the card on the model's tenth correct call. Ten different fighters, ten different styles of fight, and the model landed on the right side of nearly all of them.
The picks that got away
Two fights kept the night from being perfect, and both are worth naming rather than glossing over. Gianni Vazquez was the pick against Miles Johns and came up short, and Billy Quarantillo was the call against Diego Ferreira in a fight that went the other way. Neither was a blowout miss — both were live, competitive fights that a handicapping model is going to lose its share of over a long enough sample.
That's the honest framing Bones runs on: losses get graded in public next to the wins, with the same weight and the same visibility. A 10-2 card doesn't get to erase two real losses, and the record page won't let it.
What the ledger says overall
Zoom out and Saturday's card is a single entry in a much longer story. Bones is now 1,007-595 across 1,602 graded picks — a 63% clip built one card at a time, across hundreds of fighters and dozens of events, not manufactured by any single hot night. That number moved a fraction after Saturday, which is exactly the point: no individual card, good or bad, should swing a season-long track record very far.
What a night like this does is add another data point to a public, checkable history. Every pick Bones makes is logged before the line closes and graded the same way after, win or lose, so the 63% is a real number built from real results — not a marketing figure.
The verdict
Ten winners and two honest losses make for a good scoreboard, but the scoreboard that matters is the one that's been running since the first graded pick. Saturday added to it; it didn't define it. That's the deal at the window every night: put the picks out before the card, grade every one of them after, and let the long run speak for itself.