Our Rafael Jodar vs Yunchaokete Bu prediction for this US Open first rounder, 1:00 PM ET on September 2, comes down on Jodar's side. The 12th seed is the more proven hard court player by a wide margin, and T Money's read has him favored here.
But there is no posted moneyline on this one right now, so this stays a research call, not a staked pick. The tier is PASS: T Money likes a side without a number to grade it against, and we do not manufacture a price to fill that gap.
Why T Money likes Jodar
Jodar has not played since a three set loss to Flavio Cobolli at the Cincinnati Open on August 19, 6-4, 6-7(3), 3-6. That is 13 days of rest heading into this match, and he stayed in the draw the whole time. No injury, no withdrawal, just a full break after a heavy summer.
The Cincinnati block before that loss is the more telling stretch. Jodar beat Denis Shapovalov 7-5, 4-6, 7-5 in the second round, saving a match point and erasing a double break in the third set, then followed it by beating the 22nd seed Alejandro Tabilo 6-2, 6-1, a result ATP itself flagged as a stunner. Both Shapovalov and Tabilo had beaten Jodar earlier in the season, so this was a real form reversal on the same surface this match is being played on, not a fluke.
Zoom out and the season fits the pattern: 36-13 in 2026, a final at the Washington 500, a semifinal in Toronto with wins over Musetti, Lehecka and Fils, and a quarterfinal at Roland Garros. This is his US Open main draw debut as a tour pro, but he already won the boys title at this event in 2024, so the stage is not new to him.
Bu is not the sleepy draw he looks like on paper
Bu's tour resume reads thin, 0-2 in ATP main draw matches this year, both on hard, and he only got into this bracket as a lucky loser after failing to qualify. But that surface level context undersells what just happened. He won his first qualifying match over Rio Noguchi, then beat Borna Gojo 6-4, 6-4 in the second round, before falling to Federico Cina 6-3, 4-6, 5-7 in the qualifying final, a match that came down to a handful of points, 88-87 in Cina's favor.
He is fresh off three matches in four days at this exact site, so he is sharp and adjusted to these courts, not rusty. That is a real, current, same surface signal, and it trims some of the gap Jodar's resume alone would suggest. His grass Challenger titles at Birmingham and Ilkley are a nice credential but they belong on a different surface and do not carry weight here.
The hole T Money is watching
Jodar's documented weakness on hard courts is specific: against first strike servers, he is 2-4 with only 17 percent of return games won and 0.59 break points faced per service game. That is a narrow lane, but it is exactly the lane Bu lives in.
When Bu is serving at his ceiling, the kind of level that produced 9 aces against Gojo, he can turn a set into a string of holds and tiebreaks, a format where the seed's overall edge matters less than who is sharper in three or four short bursts. The flip side works against Bu just as hard: his own second serve leaked in qualifying, 58 percent first serves in and only 39 percent of second serve points won against Gojo, then 5 double faults against Cina, and Jodar wins the return exchanges that a leaky second serve creates. Best of five also cuts against Bu, since it gives Jodar more sets to find one clean break instead of needing his own serve to hold up all match.
The verdict
T Money's side is Rafael Jodar. The current form and the recent same surface results point his way, and Bu's swing weapon is real but narrow enough that it should not carry a five set match on its own. With no market line posted on this game right now, there is nothing to weigh that edge against, so the tier stays PASS. This is a name we like on paper, not a bet we are making today.