Our Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Maria Sakkari prediction for this US Open second-rounder, set for 3:00 PM ET on September 3, comes with a side and a warning label attached. T Money's model leans Sakkari, and the market has her at -161. But this is going on the card as an official PASS, meaning no bet gets placed at that price.
That split matters. T Money isn't ducking the matchup because the model is unsure who wins. It's ducking because the number Vegas is charging doesn't leave enough room for what Starodubtseva did in round one, or for the specific hole in Sakkari's game that a grinder like her is built to find.
Why T Money likes Sakkari
Zoom out to the last 12 months on hard courts and the gap is real. Sakkari is 16-12 against a pool of opponents ranked around the world's 63rd-best level. Starodubtseva is 16-16 against a softer pool, closer to the 51st-best level. Same overall hold-and-break shape on paper, but the matchup-specific split favors Sakkari hard: she's 8-1 against low-serve, grinder-style opponents exactly like Starodubtseva, holding 76% of service games and breaking 54% of the time. Starodubtseva, facing mid-level servers, is 6-7 with a 69% hold and only a 32% return-games-won rate.
Sakkari's ceiling this season includes wins over players rated around the 95th, 94th and 86th percentile levels, and her round-one escape over Robin Montgomery, down 2-6, 0-4 before rallying to win in three, says something about her competitive floor too. Montgomery is a stronger, title-winning-caliber opponent than anyone Starodubtseva has beaten this year, even if Sakkari needed 48 unforced errors from Montgomery to get there.
The case against
Starodubtseva's own round one was the cleaner performance of the two, and that's the part T Money can't wave off. She beat Ella Seidel 6-2, 6-2 in an hour and eighteen minutes: 71% of first-serve points won, 74% on second serve, one double fault, and only 11 unforced errors against 17 winners. No wasted motion.
The specific worry is Sakkari's second serve. In that same round-one win, Sakkari won just 43% of her second-serve points, a step down from her already modest 42.9% mark over the past month. Starodubtseva wins 36% of her return games on hard courts, a rate built on exactly the kind of grinding, ball-in-play tennis that punishes a shaky second delivery. If that number holds up again here, it's the lever that turns a comfortable favorite into a dogfight.
Why this is a pass, not a play
T Money's read is that Sakkari is still the more likely winner. The longer résumé, the tougher round-one test, and the collision history against this style of opponent all point her way. But PASS means exactly that: this side does not clear the bar T Money requires to lay money down. Nothing here is a soft version of a play or a lean dressed up as one. It's a name on the board with no stake attached.
At -161, the market is already pricing in most of Sakkari's edge, and Starodubtseva's clean, error-free opener plus her specific ability to pressure a weak second serve is enough live risk that the number doesn't leave the cushion T Money wants before it backs a side with money. When the case for a side is real but the price erases the value in it, the correct move is to say so and pass, not to force a bet that doesn't clear the gate.
The verdict
Sakkari is the side T Money likes heading into the 3:00 PM ET first serve, built on a full season of stronger hard-court results and a matchup history that favors her against grinder-style returners. But at -161, with Starodubtseva coming off a clean, low-error round one and carrying a return game built to expose exactly Sakkari's soft spot, the price doesn't clear T Money's staking bar. Call it a PASS: a real lean toward Sakkari, zero units risked.