Anna Blinkova vs Vendula Valdmannova Prediction — Sao Paulo, Thursday, September 17, 2026

Our Anna Blinkova vs Vendula Valdmannova prediction for Thursday's Sao Paulo WTA round of 16 comes down to a fight between level and legs. Blinkova is the moneyline favorite at -556 for the 1:45 PM ET start, and on paper that price makes sense: she has been the sharper player all week. But this is a PASS on the card, not a bet we are making, and part of why sits in her schedule as much as in her opponent's game.

Valdmannova arrives as the classic live underdog, a fast riser who has made a habit of grinding out three-set matches she had no business winning. Put those two threads together, a proven level against tired legs, and you get a match the model respects but will not stake.

Why the model is on Blinkova

Blinkova's form since the calendar turned to September has been sharp. She opened this event with a 6-1 6-3 win over Carol Young Suh Lee, the Warsaw 125 champion from August, needing just over an hour and winning nearly 65% of total points. Before that she reached the final of a WTA 125 event in Barranquilla, working past a wildcard, a qualifier and a lucky loser along the way. Her serve numbers have climbed as the run has gone on: she won 59.5% of service points across the full season, and that number is up to 65.3% over the last month alone.

Her return game backs it up too. Blinkova has won 54% of return points against second serves over the past twelve months, and across her last six hard-court matches that number has climbed into a 59% to 77% range. That matters directly against Valdmannova, whose second serve has been shaky: it has produced a double fault on 6.9% of her service points over the last six months, and three of her last five matches saw her hit 7, 7 and 10 double faults. If Blinkova's return shows up the way it has lately, Valdmannova's serve is the first thing to break.

The head-to-head puzzle

Neither player has faced the other, but they share two opponents, and the results point in different directions. Lee, the player Blinkova just beat 6-1 6-3, has beaten Valdmannova twice this summer: 6-2 6-2 in Barranquilla and 2-6 2-6 in the Warsaw semifinal. That is a point for Blinkova. The other common opponent cuts the other way: Valdmannova beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich in US Open qualifying in August, and Sasnovich beat Blinkova back in July. It is not a clean signal either way, but the more recent and more decisive of the two, Blinkova blanking a player who has since beaten Valdmannova twice, leans toward the favorite.

The case for Valdmannova, and why we're still passing

Valdmannova's game is built around exactly the kind of match this schedule sets up. She has already come back from a set down twice on this trip, beating Laura Pigossi 2-6 6-1 6-1 in the round before this one and rallying past Sasnovich in New York qualifying. That is Blinkova's known weak spot: she has lost eight deciding sets since April, six of them after winning the first set, including blowing a 5-2 third-set lead in the Barranquilla final she just played. Layer on the schedule and it gets uglier. This is Blinkova's seventh match in ten days, and she is walking onto court roughly 25 hours after a 65-minute win. Valdmannova has played two matches and about four hours of tennis over the same ten days, though she also has less than a full day between the end of her last match and the start of this one.

None of that flips the favorite. Blinkova is still the better player on the evidence in front of us, and Valdmannova's résumé since August is mostly wins over lower-ranked players, with her three losses at the 125 or qualifying level all coming against the best competition she has faced. But the case against Blinkova is specific and real: a tired player with a documented pattern of losing deciders, facing an opponent whose one proven skill is winning exactly that kind of set. This is a PASS on the card. We like the side, but it is not a bet we are making today.

The verdict

Call it what it is. Blinkova has the level, the more meaningful common-opponent result, and a serve trending in the right direction. Valdmannova has the one skill that could flip this match, closing out three-setters after a slow start, and the fresher legs on Thursday. The model has Blinkova as the more likely winner here, but marks it PASS, not a play, on the official card.