Our Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx prediction for this US Open fourth rounder splits the difference between two players trending in opposite directions. T Money's read favors Blockx, who takes the court at 1:00 PM ET as a -167 favorite. But the tier on this one is PASS. No official action, even though the lean is real.
Both men arrive off three-set-plus wins, both are on their fourth match in five days, and both have a specific weakness the other side is built to attack. That tension is why the number stays on the shelf.
Why T Money likes Blockx
Start with the hold and break numbers over the last twelve months on hard courts: Blockx holds serve 82 percent of the time and breaks opponents 15 percent of the time. Cerundolo holds at 74 percent and breaks at 24 percent. That is a real gap in how each man's game is built, and it shows up again in the box scores from this week.
Against a top ten opponent in Flavio Cobolli, Blockx won 57 percent of first-serve points, 86 percent of points on that first serve, and cashed in on 38 percent of his break chances, outscoring Cobolli 136 to 91 on total points. Against a qualifier in Tomas Barrios Vera, he saved all five break points he faced and out-hit that opponent 34 winners to 11 unforced errors. That is a player whose serve is doing real work right now, not just padding a scoreline.
Cerundolo's own second serve has been a soft spot across the season, sitting near 50 percent won on the year, and it dipped to 42 percent over his last month before this event. His current stretch shows some recovery, but the underlying trend is the one T Money weights heaviest.
The case against
Here is the flip side, and it is the reason this stays a PASS instead of a play. Cerundolo's path through the draw has been built on exactly the skill that beats a shaky server: second-serve returning. His comeback win over Taylor Fritz saw him convert six of nineteen break chances while surviving a two-set deficit, and he has a history of grinding out matches against players ranked in the same neighborhood as Blockx.
Blockx's first-serve frequency has been inconsistent through his three matches here, landing first serves at rates as low as 48 percent in one outing. Against a returner as persistent as Cerundolo, that opens the door to extended rallies and repeated break points, which is precisely the mechanism that could flip this match. Cerundolo is also 6 and 4 for his career against servers the data classifies as MID tier, which is roughly where Blockx sits.
Workload is close to a wash. Cerundolo has logged about eleven hours on court across three singles matches and a doubles loss since August 23. Blockx has played fewer total minutes in singles but adds his own doubles match, and both players had Saturday off before this one. Neither side gets a fatigue edge worth trusting.
The number that matters
Blockx is priced at -167 on the moneyline for this one, inside the range T Money will lay on a favorite it actually believes in. The problem is not the price. It is that the two engines pulling on this match point in different directions with real evidence behind each: Blockx's serve efficiency on one side, Cerundolo's return pressure on the other. When the model's own signals split that cleanly, the gate does not clear, and the pick stays off the bet card as a PASS rather than getting dressed up as a soft lean.
One clay-court result from earlier this season showed Blockx capable of beating higher-ranked competition when his game clicks, but that came on a different surface and carries no weight toward today's hard-court number. It is a data point about his ceiling, not a blueprint for this match.
The verdict
T Money's fundamentals work points to Blockx as the more likely winner today, largely on the strength of his serve holding up under pressure against better competition than Cerundolo has faced this week. But Cerundolo's return game is a legitimate counter, and the model will not turn a genuine split into a staked bet. Call it PASS: a real lean toward Blockx, no money behind it.