Martin Landaluce vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction — Shanghai, Thursday, October 8, 2026

Martin Landaluce and Jan-Lennard Struff open Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 3:30 AM ET in Shanghai, and any Martin Landaluce vs Jan-Lennard Struff prediction this week has to start with recent form rather than reputation. The market has Struff at -105, and the model's read on the matchup lines up with that price.

That said, this one comes through our board as a PASS, not a play, so there is no bet going out behind it here. The breakdown below is still worth knowing if you are pricing the match yourself.

Struff's Beijing week backs the number

Struff opened Beijing by beating Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-1 6-4 on hard, holding all nine of his service games and facing only one break point. He then lost to Daniil Medvedev 4-6 3-6 in the next round, but Medvedev had just won Hangzhou and arrived on a six-match winning streak, so that loss tells us less than the win did. Tirante, the player Struff handled so easily, had beaten Landaluce 7-6 7-6 in Cincinnati back in August.

Over the last 12 months on hard, Struff holds serve 82% of the time. Rest works in his favor too: five days off the court, with only two matches and roughly 152 minutes of play over the previous two weeks. Landaluce's own return game hasn't been a weapon recently either — he's winning around 36% of return points and just 17% of return games against big servers on hard, which is the profile Struff fits.

Landaluce's form has slipped since Miami

Landaluce's season still leans on Miami 2026, where he beat Korda, Khachanov and Darderi on his way to the quarterfinals. But since June he's roughly 4-11, and the surface numbers have slid with the results. His service points won on hard fell to about 58% over the last three months, down from roughly 63% across the full 12-month window, and his second-serve points won sit near 45%.

His most recent match came in Beijing qualifying, a straight loss in three sets to Marco Trungelliti, a 36-year-old ranked in the high 80s. Landaluce won only 58.7% of his own service points that day, double-faulted six times and saved none of five break points he faced. He's 3-7 in his last ten matches and 2-6 on hard since July. Ten days of rest is the one thing clearly in his favor walking into Shanghai.

The case against

This isn't one-sided. Landaluce holds serve 85% of the time against first-strike servers on hard, and Struff fits that mold with his ace rate and hold numbers. The model's own notes point out that patient return games, the kind that wear down a second serve, are exactly where Struff has struggled on hard, going 3-7 in that matchup type. Struff's own return game is modest too, winning only about a third of return points, so if Landaluce's serve shows up at anything close to his usual level, this could turn into a long, tight match on both ends.

It's also worth remembering that two or three matches apiece is a thin sample. Struff's Beijing week and Landaluce's qualifying loss both carry real signal, but neither one rewrites a full season by itself.

The verdict

Weigh it all together and this comes back as an official PASS. The desk isn't backing Struff at -105 or taking any action on this card, and that call isn't a soft lean dressed up as a bet — it's simply not a wager we're making today. The matchup breakdown above stands on its own if you want to price it yourself, but there's no money going out behind it from us.