The published pick on this game is New York. The Jets are favored by 4.5 points at DraftKings, priced at minus 120, ahead of a Sunday, September 20 kickoff. The case starts with how each team looked in Week 1 and who is available for Green Bay this week.
How the Jets looked in Week 1
Geno Smith was efficient and clean against Tennessee, going 19 of 24 for 215 yards with no interceptions. The Jets front dominated Tennessee's offensive line, and New York controlled the clock in a 13 point win. That is a run first, low mistake formula, and it gives Smith a full set of offensive weapons to work with, including Wilson, Hall, and Allen.
Where Green Bay is banged up
Jordan Love's box score from Week 1 looks strong on the surface, 387 yards and 2 touchdowns, but it came in a loss. Green Bay was outscored 22 to 0 in the second half against Minnesota and lost by 17, with a costly interception and a lost fumble from Love in that stretch. Green Bay is also without two players who matter to its identity this week. Josh Jacobs remains unavailable on the Commissioner's Exempt List, which takes away the run game, and Micah Parsons is out at edge, which takes away the pass rush that would otherwise pressure Smith. With Jacobs out, Green Bay is leaning on a Lloyd and Brooks committee behind a line that had two offensive linemen listed questionable this week. Both teams are working with a full seven days of rest, so there is no short week or travel factor pushing this one way or the other.
The key risk to this pick
Jordan Love has real top end arm talent, shown by the 387 yard, 2 touchdown Week 1 line. If he avoids the turnovers that sank Green Bay late against Minnesota, a passing attack featuring Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Kraft can score with anyone, including a Jets offense that is still run first and lighter through the air. There is also a specific opening on the other side of the ball. Minkah Fitzpatrick is confirmed out for New York's secondary for two to three weeks, and tape on Adonai Mitchell has shown the Jets defense can be vulnerable to the deep ball even before that absence. If Love plays a clean game and Green Bay's receivers win over the top, this line gets tight fast.
What decided the call
The separating factors are availability and recent form rather than one single stat. New York enters healthy at the two positions that matter most this week, quarterback and offensive line, while Green Bay is without its lead running back and its best edge rusher. Add in Love's late game turnovers from Week 1, and the scale tips toward New York at home.
The verdict
The published line has New York favored by 4.5 points at DraftKings, priced at minus 120. That number reflects a healthy Jets roster and a clean Week 1 performance from Geno Smith against a Green Bay team missing Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons and coming off a fourth quarter collapse. The plainest path against the pick is a turnover free game from Jordan Love paired with Green Bay's receivers exploiting a Jets secondary already missing Minkah Fitzpatrick. This price and line were current as of publication and may have moved since.
- The accepted pick and price: NFL board.
- Published results and method disclosure.