The pick is New Orleans Saints +8.5 at DraftKings, priced at -115, ahead of Sunday's 1:00 p.m. Eastern kickoff. Baltimore is favored to win the game outright, and our forecast agrees that the Ravens should win. The disagreement is about the size of that win. Our number has Baltimore up by roughly 6.5 points, which is short of the 8.5 the market is asking bettors to lay. That gap is the entire case for the Saints side of this spread.
Baltimore's case
Lamar Jackson opened the season clean against Indianapolis, going 17 of 25 for 324 yards with a rushing touchdown and no interceptions, a 13.0 yards per attempt clip. Derrick Henry ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries in the same game. Together that is a run game and a passing attack both hitting at once, and it came against a Colts team that Baltimore's defense held to 23 points. New Orleans' defense, by contrast, just allowed Jahmyr Gibbs 156 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 31 point shootout loss to Detroit. A Ravens front that can run the ball behind Henry lines up against a Saints run defense that already showed it can be gashed.
New Orleans' case
The Saints are not without an answer. Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards and three touchdowns on 56 attempts in his opener, with Chris Olave catching 10 passes for 182 yards. That is a real aerial ceiling even though it came in a loss. Baltimore's receiving corps is thinner than usual, with Rashod Bateman's teammate Zay Flowers dealing with a hamstring issue and Tylan Wallace or another depth piece limited by an injured reserve situation at that spot, per the forecast notes. If Shough and Olave produce another high volume passing day, New Orleans has shown it can keep a game from turning into a laugher.
Why the spread, not just the winner
This is not a bet on New Orleans to win. The Saints are underdogs and likely to lose this game. The published pick is about the final margin. DraftKings has Baltimore favored by 8.5 points. Our own math, built off Jackson and Henry's trench and quarterback advantages plus a home opener spot for Baltimore, lands on a Ravens win by about 6.5 points. Getting 8.5 points when the expected margin is 6.5 means New Orleans has roughly two points of cushion built into the number. That cushion, not a belief that the Saints will win, is the reason the pick is on New Orleans and not Baltimore.
Key risk
The plainest risk to this pick is a repeat of New Orleans' Week 1 passing performance. If Alvin Kamara is fully healthy and Shough again throws 50 or more times behind Olave and a second receiver, the way he did for 410 yards and three touchdowns in the opener, New Orleans can turn this into a shootout. Baltimore's defensive line has some banged up pieces, including a limited Nnamdi Madubuike, which is part of why the defense may not be built to close out a high scoring game and keep the final margin under 8.5.
The verdict
Baltimore is the more talented team on paper right now, with a healthy Jackson and Henry combination and a defense that just held Indianapolis to 23 points. New Orleans still allowed 156 rushing yards to Detroit's Gibbs and has its own defensive questions. None of that is in dispute. What the published pick turns on is simply that 8.5 points is more than our read of this game supports, and if Shough's passing game shows up again, the Saints have a path to keeping this within the number.
- The accepted pick and price: NFL board.
- Published results and method disclosure.