Ricky Simon vs Montel Jackson Preview & Prediction — UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos puts a rematch of styles on the main card, not the exact rematch but close enough to matter. Ricky Simon is a pressure wrestler who lives on volume takedowns and control time. Montel Jackson is a long southpaw counter puncher who wants distance, a clean read, and a straight left down the pipe. The desk is on Simon here, and the case starts with what actually beats Jackson.

Ricky Simon

Simon's path to winning fights is not pretty, and it does not need to be. He closes distance, chain wrestles, and grinds out control time rather than chasing a finish. That approach has already worked on Jackson once, and the notes here matter: Simon is one of only four men to beat Jackson as a pro, and he did it as an orthodox wrestler in the same reach band that has given Jackson trouble every time.

The counterpunch is the obvious risk. Simon has been caught before, stopped by Faber, dropped twice by a counter left hook from Song, and dropped again by Yañez this past March. Jackson's own left hand is the same shape as that hook, thrown off the back foot as a counter to a telegraphed level change. If Simon shoots sloppy and square, that left is live. The fight plan has to account for it, not ignore it.

Montel Jackson

Jackson is a stylistic puzzle on paper. He carries real reach, he counters clean, and he has never been the volume problem in his losses; he has out-landed all four men who beat him. Against Johns he ate 522 seconds of control. Against Figueiredo it was 138 seconds. Against Barcelos in April it was 465 seconds on top of six takedowns landed. Against Simon, it was the same story.

The pattern is specific enough to name: every loss on his record came against an orthodox wrestler in the 67 to 69 inch reach range who won the control battle even while losing the striking exchange on the cards. That is not bad luck four times over. That is a fighter whose counter game is real but whose takedown defense concedes just enough rounds to a certain profile of opponent.

How the fight plays out

Jackson only half fits his own losing profile against this specific opponent, and that actually favors him on paper: he is a low output counter puncher at 3.02 significant strikes per minute, not a wrestler he needs to stuff repeatedly, and the wrestlers who have taken him down have only landed at roughly 35 to 40 percent. If Simon were bringing his raw recent takedown numbers into this fight, that would be a real concern.

But Simon is not a generic wrestler to Jackson. He is the one who has already solved this exact matchup, and the version of Jackson who loses is the version who gets taken down and out-landed on the cards anyway, whether the takedown rate is high or modest. Simon's own losses came against rangy, high volume strikers who stuffed his shots outright, Bautista out-landing him 112 to 45, Oliveira 96 to 42, and Barcelos holding him to 0 for 6 on takedowns. Jackson is not that kind of stylistic problem. He does not out-strike Simon at volume and he has not shown he can keep him off the hips at a rate anywhere close to what actually stopped Simon before.

The counter left is the live variable, and Simon has to close on angles rather than a straight naked level change to take it away. But the fight math still favors the grind. Jackson has one way of losing, and Simon is the fighter, and the archetype, that has already put it on tape.

The verdict

The desk takes Ricky Simon. He is the exact reach and wrestling profile that has beaten Jackson every single time, and Jackson has not shown a takedown defense fix sharp enough to flip that pattern here.