Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev Preview & Prediction — UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Volkanovski and Evloev headline UFC 333 on October 24, 2026, with the desk logging this one as a no-play read even though the pick itself is clear. Volkanovski is the elite striker with the résumé to match. Evloev is the control wrestler whose path to beating him already has a precedent on Volkanovski's own record. No market line is quoted here, but the stylistic clash is the whole story.

Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski's résumé is built on five-round volume: pressure, low kicks, and the kind of relentless output that beat Holloway three times. That style is the base case here, and it travels into this fight too, since Evloev's own tape shows real cracks against clean strikers. But the one loss on Volkanovski's record did not come from a striker. It came from a control wrestler who rode him for 457 seconds across five rounds on 4-of-9 takedowns, and in January 2026, Lopes got him down twice in five attempts for 110 seconds of control. That is two different grapplers finding the same door.

Movsar Evloev

Evloev is a control wrestler, not a volume striker, and his path to a decision does not need to look pretty. He averages 339.8 seconds of control a fight, and against Murphy he went 9-of-10 on takedowns and raised his grappling output late instead of fading, which is exactly the profile that gave Volkanovski trouble before. The honest case against him is the feet: Murphy still outlanded him 89-86 in a majority decision, Allen outlanded him 59-51, and both results point to the same documented issue, clean counters and calf kicks landing on him in exchanges. Volkanovski's camp will have built around that directly.

How the fight plays out

The fight turns on whether Volkanovski can keep this standing long enough for his volume to matter. Murphy nearly took a decision off Evloev purely on the feet, so the counters and calf kicks are there to be found. But Murphy still lost that fight, because Evloev's control time ate the rounds he needed. Volkanovski has shown fence get-ups and solid two-on-one defense in the past, which is the part of his game this fight is really testing, not his boxing.

Age is the other half of it. Volkanovski is 38.1 against a 32.7-year-old, and the Makhachev loss plus the Lopes takedowns both point the same direction: the grappling path on him works, and it works later into fights as much as early. Evloev brings that same path with a track record of raising it in the championship rounds rather than letting it slip. The desk's read has this logged as Evloev, not because the striking case is fake, but because the control-wrestling blueprint that beat Volkanovski once is sitting across the cage again, five rounds to find it.

The verdict

The pick is Evloev. His control-wrestling path mirrors the one fighter who has ever beaten Volkanovski, and Volkanovski's recent trouble with takedowns, not strikes, says that door is still open. Volkanovski's volume and low kicks give him a real route to the feet exposure Evloev has shown against Murphy and Allen, but the desk's read favors the grappling path closing the distance before that volume can decide the fight.