Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov Preview & Prediction — UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

UFC 333 buries an intriguing stylistic puzzle on a card headlined by Volkanovski-Evloev. Colby Thicknesse brings a proven, grinding pace against a total unknown in Asaf Chopurov, who arrives unbeaten but completely untested at this level. On paper it reads like a step-up spot for the champ-adjacent wrestler. On tape, it reads like exactly the kind of fight Thicknesse has struggled with before.

Colby Thicknesse

Thicknesse's game is built on volume and pace: chain wrestling, constant forward pressure, and a willingness to grind out rounds rather than hunt a finish. That formula has mostly worked inside the UFC, including a decision win over Vince Morales, even though Morales actually out-controlled him 214 seconds to 181 in that fight. It's a result that shows Thicknesse can lose the control battle on the mat and still bank rounds on activity and output.

But his one loss is the more revealing data point. Aleksandre Topuria, an orthodox grappler, stuffed all eight of Thicknesse's takedown attempts, controlled him for 302 seconds, and outlanded him 52% to 30% on significant strikes. The tape from that fight shows the same pattern that shows up elsewhere in his career: upright, linear entries that walk straight into strikes, and overextended shot attempts that leave his back exposed the moment a grappler reads the timing. He was also badly dropped by a front kick against Kakembo, a reminder that his entries and his striking defense share the same root problem: he leads with his head and his hips before he's covered the distance.

Asaf Chopurov

Chopurov steps in 11-0 and makes his promotional debut, though that record comes mostly against lesser competition, so there's a real gap between his resume and what he's about to see. The appeal of his style is specific: against a lunging blitz, his tape shows him meeting the entry with double underhooks, tripping to top position, and working directly to the back. That is almost a diagram of the exact counter that beat Thicknesse before.

The flip side is real too. Chopurov's control time on tape skews toward low-damage back riding rather than finishing offense, he's shown a crossed-ankle footlock exposure when opponents scramble underneath him, and he has no sample of fighting off his back if the fight ever ends up there. Against a less schooled takedown artist, those are survivable gaps. Against fifteen minutes of UFC-level pace, they're the kind of holes that could let him drop rounds on volume even while he's never in real danger.

How the fight plays out

The blueprint already exists. Topuria showed that an orthodox grappler who reads Thicknesse's entries can stuff the shot, take the top position, and win the exchange on the mat without much resistance. Chopurov's own tape is built around that exact counter: underhooks on the blitz, a trip to top, a route to the back. If Thicknesse comes forward the way he always does, he's walking into the single matchup problem that has already beaten him once.

The question is whether Thicknesse's proven pace and 15-minute conditioning let him outwork Chopurov on volume even while losing individual exchanges, the way he did against Morales. That's a real path for him. But it requires him to adjust entries he hasn't shown he can adjust, against a style that specifically preys on the version of him that's shown up before. The desk lands on Chopurov. His back-control counter matches Thicknesse's documented entry flaws too closely to bet against, even with no bottom-game sample and a soft resume behind him.

The verdict

The read is Chopurov. His counter-grappling, off the back-trip into back control, lines up directly with the entry and takedown-defense flaws that cost Thicknesse his only pro loss against Topuria. This is logged as a no-play read, not a tracked wager, but the stylistic case points to Chopurov's side of the fight.