Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan Preview & Prediction — UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Merab Dvalishvili built a reputation on volume and fence time that few in the bantamweight division can match, but this rematch with Petr Yan arrives with both men compromised. Yan is back from a nine-hour lower-back surgery in January. Dvalishvili returns from a 10-month layoff with an unrepaired broken nose, confirmed by coach Ray Longo. The stylistic question from their first meeting never really got settled, and the physical questions around it may decide the answer this time.

Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's game plan does not change: relentless shot volume, fence control, and a pace that buries opponents under activity. That approach banked him 413 seconds of control time and a 50-45 sweep when these two first fought in 2023. The holes in that approach are also well documented. His entries are upright, which leaves him open to straight counters and body work, and his shot volume does not reliably convert into sustained top position against a durable scrambler. In the 2025 rematch, he logged 312 seconds of control and still did not win the rounds. Now 35.8 and coming off four fights in 2025 followed by a 10-month layoff, he walks in with an unrepaired broken nose against the exact striker who already found that target.

Petr Yan

Yan's path to winning rounds against Dvalishvili is switch-stance straight punching paired with body work, and the second fight showed it working in real time: 60% accuracy, facial damage on Dvalishvili from the 10:57 mark onward, and visible body reactions in rounds four and five on the way to a clean unanimous decision. The counter against him has always been the same: a sustained-control wrestler can smother that output, which is exactly what Aljamain Sterling did with 511 seconds of control, and close to what Dvalishvili did in their first meeting with 413 seconds and 11 of 49 takedown attempts. The new variable is the lower back. Nine-hour surgery in January is the kind of procedure that can erode sprawl and get-up mechanics over 25 minutes against an opponent who will throw 30 to 50 shot attempts.

How the fight plays out

The case against Yan is real and repeated: when Dvalishvili gets on top and stays there, Yan has struggled. But that case was already tested in the rematch, and Dvalishvili's control time still did not translate into rounds won. That tells us his volume and fence time are not the automatic win condition they look like on paper. Layer on the current news and the fight tilts further. Yan is the switch-stance straight puncher who already opened up Dvalishvili's face once; Dvalishvili now enters with that same face unrepaired and a long layoff behind him. Even with a surgically repaired back that may slow his sprawl, Yan does not need to stop every entry. He needs to keep finding the nose and the body the way he already did for three rounds last time.

The verdict

The call here is Yan. His switch-stance straight punches and body attacks already solved Dvalishvili's upright entries once, and Dvalishvili walks in with that same facial damage unrepaired and ten months of inactivity behind him. The back surgery is a real downside risk for Yan's wrestling defense, but it does not erase a striking blueprint that already worked.