Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans Prediction

The Cleveland Browns visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, October 25, with kickoff at 1 p.m. Eastern at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Cleveland is 4 and 2 in its first year under Todd Monken, and Tennessee is 1 and 5 in its first year under Robert Saleh. Both teams come in on a normal week of rest, and the forecast calls for about 75 degrees, light wind and a dry afternoon, so neither the weather nor the schedule tilts this one. Our forecast has Cleveland winning by about four points. Our pick for this game is Cleveland minus 1.5 at minus 110, entered at DraftKings at 8:31 a.m. Eastern as an owner-approved manual pick after the forecast was made.

Cleveland's case

The defense carries this team. Cleveland ranks fifth in points allowed, 11th against the pass and fourth in pass rush, getting a sack or a hit on the quarterback on about 27 percent of dropbacks. It has held five of six opponents to 24 points or fewer, and it gets defensive tackle Mason Graham and safety Grant Delpit back this week with no injury designation. Deshaun Watson has started all six games at quarterback and starts again, with Dillon Gabriel on injured reserve. Watson's passing game ranks only 21st on a per dropback basis, but it has had big days, at Tampa Bay and against Pittsburgh, and running back Quinshon Judkins returns. The Browns win with the pass rush and a field position game.

Tennessee's case

Tennessee's best weapon is up front. Jeffery Simmons leads a pass rush that wrecked the game at Indianapolis last week, with six sacks and 11 hits in the Titans' only win, 26 to 20. Tennessee's own pass protection ranks fourth in the league, allowing a sack or hit on about 17 percent of dropbacks, which blunts Cleveland's rush. Second year quarterback Cam Ward has started all six games. The Titans win by keeping the score in the teens, letting their front control the game and getting a defensive or special teams score. They lose when Ward has to throw from behind.

Injuries and lineup changes

Tennessee receiver Calvin Ridley (hip) did not practice all week and is questionable, and the Titans elevated K.J. Osborn on Saturday as insurance. Ridley has played between 47 and 61 percent of the offense's snaps, so his status matters but does not swing the game by itself. Both Titans safeties, starter Tony Adams (ankle) and Kevin Winston Jr. (quad), are questionable, as are Spears, a rotation player, and Mausi, who is in his window to return from injured reserve. For Cleveland, cornerback Denzel Ward (hand) is questionable after a limited practice Friday, and Monken has said he expects Ward to play. Starter Quincy Williams (neck) is questionable and says he will play. Defensive tackle Mike Hall Jr. is out, but he plays in a rotation, and Teven Jenkins went to injured reserve Saturday without having played a snap this season. Official inactives are posted about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Why we have Cleveland by about four

The clearest mismatch is Tennessee's passing game against Cleveland's defense. The Titans rank 31st in passing efficiency and 31st in scoring at 14 points a game, and they have topped 20 points only once. In the win at Indianapolis, Ward completed 11 of 22 passes for 102 yards with an interception. At the other end, Tennessee's pass defense ranks 27th, which gives Watson the better matchup of the two quarterbacks. The records also need a closer look. Cleveland's 4 and 2 start comes with a minus 16 point differential, and all four wins were by three or four points, including close ones over Carolina and a Baltimore team playing backup Tyler Huntley. Tennessee's lone win came with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and three takeaways while the Titans were outplayed on a per play basis. Measured by margin against similar schedules, Cleveland has been the better team by a few points a game, and that holds up on the road.

Key risk

Cleveland's offensive line is the worst in the league at protecting the quarterback, allowing a sack or hit on about 31 percent of dropbacks, and its run game ranks 31st. The Browns have scored 13 points or fewer in three of six games, and they were overwhelmed up front in losses at Jacksonville and at the Jets. If Simmons and the Tennessee front win the way they did at Indianapolis, and Ward cannot play, leaving Toriano Pride Jr., who has not played a defensive snap, at left corner, this turns into a coin flip in a low scoring game.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 25 at 9:21 AM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Cleveland Browns

Denzel Boston, wide receiver, on the practice report (foot): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 95 percent, 91 percent, 92 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Isaiah Bond, who has seen little action.

Denzel Ward, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Toriano Pride Jr., who has seen little action.

Grant Delpit, safety, on the practice report (concussion): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 97 percent, 100 percent, 11 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, who has already been playing a starter's share.

KC Concepcion, wide receiver, on the practice report (calf/quadriceps): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 92 percent, 16 percent, 81 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Tylan Wallace, who has seen little action.

Quincy Williams, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 99 percent, 91 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Justin Jefferson, who has seen little action.

Mason Graham, defensive tackle, on the practice report (knee/ankle): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 10 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Adin Huntington, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Quinshon Judkins, running back, on the practice report (ankle): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 66 percent, 53 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Dylan Sampson, who has seen little action, and he is also on the injury report.

Mike Hall Jr., defensive tackle, out: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 42 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Elijah Chatman, who has not played a snap this season.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Teven Jenkins, Dylan Sampson, Dillon Gabriel, Kalia Davis.

Tennessee Titans

Kevin Winston Jr., safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Tony Adams, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Calvin Ridley, wide receiver, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 47 percent, 56 percent, 61 percent.

Tony Adams, safety, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 16 percent, 97 percent, 93 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Terrell Burgess, who has seen little action.

Tyjae Spears, running back, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 36 percent, 54 percent, 24 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Julius Chestnut, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Dorian Mausi.

The verdict

Our forecast has Cleveland winning by about four points, built on Tennessee's struggling passing game running into Cleveland's pass rush and coverage, with Watson facing the weaker pass defense. Our pick is Cleveland minus 1.5 at minus 110, entered at DraftKings at 8:31 a.m. Eastern. The bet needs the Browns to win by two points or more. A one point Cleveland win or any Tennessee win loses it, and with a half point in the number there is no tie. The danger is the matchup between Simmons and Cleveland's line: if Tennessee's rush takes over, a game this low scoring can come down to a single play.