Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

The Los Angeles Rams visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 25, with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. Eastern at Allegiant Stadium. The Rams are 2 and 4 and the Raiders are 3 and 3. The game is indoors, so weather is not a factor, and both teams come in on a normal week of rest. Our forecast has the Rams winning by less than a point, which makes this about as close as a forecast gets. That forecast was locked before we looked at any betting line. Our pick is the Raiders plus 3.5 at minus 120 at DraftKings, entered as an owner-approved manual pick at 8:31 a.m. Eastern after the forecast was made.

The Rams' case

The Rams are better than their record. Their losses came against San Francisco, Denver, Buffalo and Arizona, and four of their six games were decided by one score: a 30 to 26 loss at Denver, a 24 to 20 win at Philadelphia, a 37 to 34 overtime loss to Buffalo and an 18 to 16 loss to Arizona. By expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap helps or hurts a team's scoring chances, the Rams have been above average on both offense and defense, against a hard schedule. Matthew Stafford starts and has started every game. The offensive line ranks 8th in protection, and left tackle Alaric Jackson is back after the league reinstated him from a one game suspension. The defense ranks 2nd in passing yards allowed. When the Rams win, it is Stafford and Sean McVay's play design moving the ball against weak coverage. When they lose, it is usually protection breaking down and the ball coming loose, as it did against Arizona on a fumbled two point try, a strip sack and a lost Higbee fumble.

The Raiders' case

Las Vegas beat Miami 27 to 13, won 26 to 14 at the Chargers and 35 to 27 at New Orleans, then lost 30 to 27 to Kansas City, 45 to 17 at New England and 33 to 30 to Buffalo. Kirk Cousins starts and runs an efficient passing game that ranks 9th, throwing to Bowers, Tucker and Mayer. The real strength is the pass rush. Crosby, Paye and Quay Walker help it rank 5th in the league, getting a sack or a hit on about 26 percent of dropbacks. The run defense is solid at 12th. The weaknesses are just as clear: the running game ranks 29th, and the pass defense ranks 24th, which is how New England put up 45. Under first year coach Klint Kubiak, the Raiders win by protecting Cousins and getting home with four rushers, and they lose when a good quarterback has time to throw. Their roster is healthy, with left tackle Kolton Miller, Walker and Bowers all practicing in full this week with no injury designation.

Injuries and lineup changes

Almost all of the injury news is on the Rams side. Davante Adams went on injured reserve on October 20 with a hamstring injury expected to cost him six to ten weeks. Puka Nacua hurt his calf in practice, did not practice on the final day of the week and is listed as questionable. McVay said a pregame workout will decide whether he plays, and early testing called the injury minor. On defense, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford went on injured reserve this week and Myles Garrett is still on injured reserve. Starting inside linebacker Nate Landman is out with a concussion, with veteran Eric Kendricks called up from the practice squad. Starting cornerback Trent McDuffie did not practice all week, missed the previous game and is questionable. A Rams pass rush that already ranked 29th, getting a sack or a hit on 16 percent of dropbacks, now loses two more linemen, and the run defense ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed. For Las Vegas, running back Mike Washington Jr., a rotation player, is questionable. Official inactives are posted about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Why the forecast is so close

A rating of the two teams with these starting quarterbacks makes the Rams a modest favorite, and our forecast starts there. Three things move it toward Las Vegas. First, the Rams passing game without Adams, and possibly without Nacua or with a limited Nacua, loses exactly the matchup it would most want against a 24th ranked pass defense, and it has to do it against a top five pass rush. Second, the Rams defense is thinner than the one the rating measured, with Turner, Ford, Garrett and Landman all missing and McDuffie uncertain. Third, the line play favors Las Vegas on both sides. The Raiders pass rush faces a Rams line that protects well, while a Rams front without Turner and Ford faces a healthy Raiders line, which should give Cousins a cleaner pocket than Stafford can count on, even though the Raiders cannot run the ball well. One thing moves it back toward the Rams. Las Vegas is plus 4 in turnover margin, with 9 of its 10 takeaways in its three wins, while the Rams are minus 3, and gaps like that tend to even out. The Rams also have the better play by play numbers against tougher opponents. Put together, the forecast lands with the Rams winning by less than a point.

Key risk

The biggest risk is that Nacua plays a full game and McDuffie is active. With their top receiver and their top cornerback on the field, the Rams look like the team their play by play numbers describe, facing a Raiders secondary that gave up 45 points to New England and 33 to Buffalo. In that case our injury adjustments overstate the damage, and the Rams could win by a field goal or more. Watch the inactives list for both names.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 25 at 9:22 AM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Los Angeles Rams

Nate Landman, linebacker, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 93 percent, 89 percent, 99 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Eric Kendricks, who has not played a snap this season.

Puka Nacua, wide receiver, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 90 percent, 85 percent, 90 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Tutu Atwell, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Trent McDuffie, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who has seen little action.

Davante Adams, wide receiver, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 95 percent, 73 percent, 74 percent.

Kobie Turner, defensive end, injured reserve: on injured reserve after starting. Snap share over the last three games: 79 percent, 67 percent, 32 percent.

Konata Mumpfield, wide receiver, on the practice report (hamstring): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 27 percent, 7 percent, 47 percent. Next up on the depth chart: CJ Daniels, who has not played a snap this season.

Poona Ford, defensive tackle, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 43 percent, 45 percent, 35 percent.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Myles Garrett, Terrance Ferguson.

Las Vegas Raiders

Quay Walker, linebacker, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Cody Lindenberg, who has seen little action.

Tonka Hemingway, defensive tackle, on the practice report (concussion): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 65 percent, 13 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Folorunso Fatukasi, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Mike Washington Jr., running back, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 21 percent, 8 percent, 35 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Dylan Laube, who has seen little action.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Dont'e Thornton Jr., Carter Runyon.

The verdict

Our forecast has the Rams winning by less than a point, a game that could go either way. Our pick is the Raiders plus 3.5 at minus 120 at DraftKings. That bet wins if the Raiders win the game outright or lose by 3 points or fewer, so a Rams win by a field goal still cashes it. It loses if the Rams win by 4 or more. The pick was entered as an owner-approved manual pick at 8:31 a.m. Eastern, and it does not change the forecast. The news that matters most before kickoff is whether Nacua and McDuffie are active for the Rams.