Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction

The Denver Broncos visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, October 25, with kickoff at 4:05 p.m. Eastern at State Farm Stadium, where the roof is expected to be closed. Denver is 4 and 2 and comes in on ten days of rest, while Arizona is 2 and 4 and had a normal week after a road win over the Rams. Our forecast has Denver winning by about six points. Our pick is Denver minus 4.5 at minus 115, an owner-approved manual pick entered at DraftKings at 8:31 a.m. Eastern, after the forecast was locked.

Denver's case

Denver wins with its defense. The pass rush ranks second in the league, sacking or hitting the quarterback on about 28 percent of dropbacks, and it pressured Seattle on 35 percent of dropbacks last time out. Zach Allen was a full participant in Friday's practice, and outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper has been reinstated. The pass defense ranks fifth in EPA allowed (expected points added, a measure of how much each play helps a team score), and Denver's offensive line ranks first in pass protection.

The problem is the other side of the ball. Sean Payton took back play calling after Week 4 and the offense has not improved. The passing game ranks 25th in EPA per dropback, scoring ranks 26th, and Bo Nix is at career lows in completion rate and yards per completion. The last two wins, 23 to 17 at the Chargers and 17 to 14 in overtime over Seattle, each came with three takeaways, and Denver went 1 of 12 on third down against the Chargers. The run defense has also slipped to 29th in EPA allowed and 31st in yards allowed.

Arizona's case

Arizona is in its first year under head coach Mike LaFleur and has been outscored 126 to 178. Jacoby Brissett runs a middle of the pack passing game, 20th in the league, without Marvin Harrison Jr., who was traded, so the ball goes to McBride, Wilson and Bourne. The run game ranks 17th, and with Jeremiyah Love out again, Tyler Allgeier, who already led the backfield in snaps, carries the load. The defense is the weak spot: 30th in EPA allowed against the pass and 31st in points allowed, although the run defense is good, seventh in the league.

The Cardinals win by running the ball, using play action and protecting Brissett. Their best game was a 26 to 14 win at the Chargers, and last week they won 18 to 16 at the Rams while allowing a sack or hit on only 14 percent of dropbacks. Their two home games were lopsided losses, 31 to 7 to Seattle and 45 to 21 to Detroit.

Injuries and lineup changes

Arizona is missing three starters. Defensive tackle Walter Nolen III is out with an ankle injury after playing 60 to 65 percent of snaps, and L.J. Collier steps in. Right guard Jon Gaines II, who played every snap the last two weeks, is out with a knee injury, and Hayden Conner, who has played almost no snaps, starts in his place. Love is out with an ankle injury. Left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is on injured reserve for the season, so rookie Jayden Williams starts there. Safety Budda Baker (groin and illness) and slot cornerback Max Melton (knee) are questionable, and Wydett Williams Jr. cleared the concussion protocol and starts at free safety.

For Denver, safety Talanoa Hufanga is out for a second straight game and outside linebacker Jonah Elliss is out. Cornerback Pat Surtain II is questionable after limited practices all week, his first since he was hurt in Week 4, and the final call on him comes about 90 minutes before kickoff. Riley Moss is back to full practice. Both starting quarterbacks are set. Nix has no injury designation and says his surgically repaired ankle is fine, and Brissett is Arizona's confirmed starter.

Why the forecast favors Denver

Our team ratings make Denver the clearly stronger team before any injury news, and two things push the forecast a little further Denver's way. The first is the trenches. Denver's pass rush faces a rookie left tackle and a backup right guard. In the first game with Williams at left tackle, Detroit sacked or hit Brissett on 28 percent of dropbacks, and his turnovers in that loss came under pressure. The second is Arizona's injuries on both lines, including Nolen in the middle of its defense.

Pulling the other way is Denver's record itself. The Broncos are 4 and 2 but have been outscored by 11 points, and they are plus 5 in turnovers over the last two wins alone. Takeaways at that pace rarely hold up, so the forecast gives back about a point for that luck. Arizona's 30th ranked pass defense also gives Denver's slumping passing game its best chance all season, but nothing this season says Nix will take advantage, so the forecast gives Denver no credit for it. Put together, the forecast lands at Denver by about six.

Key risk

The biggest risk is Denver's own offense. Nix had six three and outs against Seattle, and the Broncos scored 23 and 17 points in their last two wins only because the defense forced six turnovers. If Arizona protects the ball the way it did at the Rams, with one turnover, and keeps running Allgeier at Denver's 29th ranked run defense, it becomes a one score game the Cardinals can steal at home. They already won at Los Angeles 18 to 16 when our own forecast had them as a clear underdog. Any limitation on Nix before kickoff would move us toward pulling the pick.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 25 at 9:22 AM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

Denver Broncos

Talanoa Hufanga, safety, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 66 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Devon Key, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Jaylen Waddle, wide receiver, on the practice report (chest): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 68 percent, 65 percent, 65 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Marvin Mims Jr., who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Pat Surtain II, cornerback, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 44 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jahdae Barron, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Jonah Elliss, linebacker, injured reserve: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 61 percent, 55 percent, 45 percent.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Tyler Badie, Jonah Coleman.

Arizona Cardinals

Jon Gaines II, guard, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 58 percent, 100 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Hayden Conner, who has seen little action.

Walter Nolen III, defensive tackle, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 60 percent, 65 percent, 60 percent. Next up on the depth chart: L.J. Collier, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Budda Baker, safety, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 100 percent, 98 percent, 100 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Max Melton, cornerback, questionable: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 88 percent, 58 percent, 78 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Kalen King, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Andrew Wingard, safety, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 4 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Joey Blount, who has not played a snap this season.

Jeremiyah Love, running back, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 45 percent, 49 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Tyler Allgeier, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Darius Robinson, defensive end, questionable: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 31 percent, 36 percent, 38 percent.

Tyler Allgeier, running back, on the practice report (ankle): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 55 percent, 44 percent, 56 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Bam Knight, who has not played a snap this season, and he is also on the injury report.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Carson Beck, Bam Knight.

The verdict

Our forecast has Denver winning by about six points. Our pick is Denver minus 4.5 at minus 115, which wins only if the Broncos win by 5 points or more. A Denver win by 4 or fewer, or an Arizona win, loses the bet. The forecast margin sits above the 4.5 points Denver has to cover, and that gap is the reason for the pick, but it is not a wide cushion for an offense this unreliable. The pick was entered at DraftKings at 8:31 a.m. Eastern. Watch the inactives: Surtain active helps Denver a little, and Baker and Melton both out would help Denver more.