San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

The San Francisco 49ers visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, October 25, with kickoff at 1 p.m. Eastern at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. San Francisco is 6 and 0 and has outscored its opponents by 67 points. Atlanta is 2 and 4 in Kevin Stefanski's first season, and its record splits cleanly by who played quarterback. Both teams start their usual quarterbacks, Brock Purdy for San Francisco and Michael Penix Jr. for Atlanta. Our forecast has San Francisco winning by about four and a half points. Our pick is San Francisco minus 2.5 at minus 115, an owner-approved manual pick entered at DraftKings at 8:31 a.m. Eastern, after the forecast was already locked.

San Francisco's case

Purdy runs the most efficient passing offense in the league on a per dropback basis, and he does it behind the second best protection, which allows a sack or a hit on only about 15 percent of dropbacks. Christian McCaffrey is back, George Kittle is healthy and the run game ranks sixth. The 49ers win with play action, Kittle and McCaffrey and a clean pocket. On defense under Raheem Morris they rank third against the run and 13th against the pass, with a middle of the pack pass rush since Nick Bosa went down. The wins include 27 to 7 over the Rams in Melbourne, 35 to 13 over Miami, 24 to 14 over Denver and 23 to 17 over Washington on Monday night, when the defense smothered Washington on a per play basis.

Atlanta's case

Atlanta looks like two different teams. Without Penix it lost 20 to 13 at Pittsburgh with Cooper Rush and 34 to 3 at home to Carolina, a game with five turnovers. With Penix it won 35 to 14 at Green Bay and 45 to 24 at New Orleans, then lost 30 to 23 in overtime at home to a Baltimore team playing backup Tyler Huntley, with Penix hurt late, and 31 to 23 at home to Chicago. The Falcons win by running the ball with Bijan Robinson, whose run offense ranks third, and by hitting Penix on play action shots. They lose when pressure gets home and when their cornerbacks are attacked. The pass defense is 15th by efficiency but 28th in yards allowed, and the run defense is a strength at ninth by efficiency and fourth in yards.

Injuries and lineup changes

San Francisco is without its top two receivers. Mike Evans (Achilles and ribs) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) are both out after missing every practice, so Jordan Watkins, Brandin Cooks and Christian Kirk start outside. Kirk is set to make his season debut off injured reserve after a full practice and carries a questionable tag. Bosa misses a fifth straight game and safety Marques Sigle a third, and nickel cornerback Stout is questionable after limited practices. Greenlaw was reinstated on October 20 after his Week 6 suspension. Atlanta is without starting linebacker Divine Deablo and rotation cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. Cornerback Avieon Terrell, who played nearly every snap last game, was limited all week, and so were defensive end Samson Ebukam and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter. Penix has no injury designation after a full Friday practice and is listed first on the depth chart, with Andy Dalton signed on October 19 as the backup. Brian Robinson Jr. is out, so Khalil Herbert backs up Bijan Robinson. Names to check when inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff: Avieon Terrell, Henderson, Ebukam and Kirk.

Why the forecast favors San Francisco

Three things decide the forecast. First, even without Evans and Samuel, the 49ers' passing game meets an Atlanta pass defense that gives up a lot of yards and is missing its starting middle linebacker, and that matters against Kittle and McCaffrey as receivers. Second, the trenches favor San Francisco on passing downs. Its protection faces an Atlanta edge group with Ebukam limited and Za'Darius Smith barely on the field lately, while Atlanta's own line leaked in both recent home losses, giving up a sack or hit on 22 and 27 percent of dropbacks. Film from the Chicago loss showed protection slide breakdowns inside and soft edge blocking against pressure, and San Francisco's interior stunts and Mykel Williams took advantage of the same things against Washington. Third, Atlanta's best weapon, the run game, runs into the 49ers' third ranked run defense, so the Falcons lack the edge that carried them at Green Bay.

Three things pull the forecast back toward Atlanta. San Francisco had six days of rest to Atlanta's seven after its Monday night game, and it flies across the country for an early start that feels like 10 a.m. to its players. The receiver room is thin. And the unbeaten record is a little better than the play: the 32 to 29 win at Seattle came against backup Drew Lock and was rescued by four takeaways while the 49ers were outplayed per snap, and the 36 to 30 win over Arizona came against a weak team. Coaching does not separate the sides, and the dome takes weather out of it.

Key risk

San Francisco's offense has to run through Kittle, McCaffrey and a patched group of Watkins, Cooks and a debuting Kirk, on a short week and an early body clock kickoff. If Bijan Robinson's run game controls the clock and Penix hits the kind of shot plays he landed at Green Bay and New Orleans against a secondary without Sigle, this becomes a one score game that Atlanta can win at home. Morris coached Penix in Atlanta, and that familiarity can help either side.

Who's in and who's out

Availability as of October 25 at 9:22 AM ET. Each player's role is checked against the snaps he actually played, not just the depth chart, so a starter and a backup on the same injury report are not treated alike. This updates automatically as the injury report changes.

San Francisco 49ers

Marques Sigle, safety, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 68 percent, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Malik Mustapha, who has already been playing a starter's share.

Jaden Dugger, linebacker, on the practice report (knee): a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 23 percent, 75 percent, 96 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Luke Gifford, who has seen little action, and he is also on the injury report.

Deebo Samuel Sr., wide receiver, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 67 percent, 43 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Jordan Watkins, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Mike Evans, wide receiver, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 59 percent, 63 percent, 40 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Brandin Cooks, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Nick Bosa, defensive end, out: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Mykel Williams, who has been playing a regular rotation share, and he is also on the injury report.

Christian Kirk, wide receiver, on the practice report (calf): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Next up on the depth chart: Jacob Cowing, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Jordan Watkins, wide receiver, on the practice report (achilles): a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 38 percent, 37 percent, 76 percent. Next up on the depth chart: De'Zhaun Stribling, who has seen little action.

Upton Stout, cornerback, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 55 percent, 48 percent, 42 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ashtyn Davis, who has seen little action.

Brandin Cooks, wide receiver, on the practice report (achilles): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 12 percent, 40 percent, 52 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Demarcus Robinson, who has seen little action.

Mykel Williams, defensive end, on the practice report (knee): a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, 37 percent, 45 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Ogbo Okoronkwo, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Garret Wallow, Luke Gifford, Siran Neal.

Atlanta Falcons

Divine Deablo, linebacker, out: a verified starter. Snap share over the last three games: 81 percent, 100 percent, 32 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Harold Perkins Jr., who has been playing a regular rotation share.

A.J. Terrell Jr., cornerback, on the practice report (groin): listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: did not play, did not play, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: C.J. Henderson, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Avieon Terrell, cornerback, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 49 percent, 57 percent, 99 percent.

C.J. Henderson, cornerback, questionable: a starter by snap count, though the depth chart lists someone else first. Snap share over the last three games: 86 percent, 51 percent, did not play. Next up on the depth chart: Avieon Terrell, who has already been playing a starter's share, and he is also on the injury report.

Gervon Dexter Sr., defensive tackle, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 59 percent, 57 percent, 56 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Anterio Thompson, who has not played a snap this season.

Kendal Daniels, linebacker, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 39 percent, 66 percent, 57 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Josh Woods, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Olamide Zaccheaus, wide receiver, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 37 percent, 33 percent, 55 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Beaux Collins, who has not played a snap this season, and he is also on the injury report.

Samson Ebukam, defensive end, questionable: listed as a starter on the depth chart, but his recent snaps say he has been in a reduced role. Snap share over the last three games: 59 percent, 76 percent, 53 percent. Next up on the depth chart: Jared Ivey, who has been playing a regular rotation share.

Billy Bowman Jr., cornerback, out: a rotation player. Snap share over the last three games: 72 percent, 33 percent, 18 percent.

Also listed, all reserves who rarely play: Michael Jerrell, Beaux Collins, Za'Darius Smith, Brian Robinson Jr., Cameron Williams.

The verdict

Our forecast has San Francisco winning by about four and a half points, built mostly on the better quarterback play and protection, with the short week, the missing receivers and some good fortune in the 6 and 0 start pulling it closer. Our pick is San Francisco minus 2.5 at minus 115. It wins if the 49ers win by 3 points or more. A 49ers win by 1 or 2 points, or any Atlanta win, loses it, and the half point means there is no tie. At minus 115, a winning bet of 115 dollars returns 100 dollars in profit. The pick was entered as an owner-approved manual pick at DraftKings at 8:31 a.m. Eastern, and the forecast itself is unchanged from the locked read.